It was a bit of a slow week in local politics this past week, although it seems like the Lake County Dems (with State Senator Michael Bond seemingly moving chess pieces from the shadowy background) are focusing on local township and municipal races for the Spring 2009 elections. I'm working on something on that.
But in the meantime, I'd thought I'd run past you a few election statistics from the Kirk-Seals race. Dan Seals himself has been pretty silent lately, as a far as I can tell. If he is trying to work the behind-the-scenes with the governor to get appointed to Barack Obama's vacated senate seat, he's doing a very stealthy job, and he seems to have fallen off even the dark-horse list in most MSM news accounts. And senior senator Dick Durbin seems focused on pushing Tammy Duckworth, and Seals' mentor, Congresswoman Jan Schakowski is pushing herself. But in case Seals is thinking of sticking around to make yet another run for the 10th District (most likely in hopes that Mark Kirk decides to run for a different officer), Seals ought to look at the numbers.
First, in a massively "Obama" year, Mark Kirk increased his win over Seals from 2006 by vote totals. There were a lot more voters this time, given the presidential race, with 200,981 votes cast in 2006, compared with 287,834 in 2008. Seals got 93,680 in 2006, and 136,551 in 2008. Conversely, Kirk got 107,301 in 2006, and 151,283 in 2008. Thus, the win differential was 13,621 in 2006, compared to 14, 732 in 2008.
Kirk did lose a slight amount of ground percentage-wise, but given the fact that a number of moderate Republicans lost their seats even though less people in their districts voted for Obama than in the 10th District, means that Kirk's targeted message to ticket-splitters made all of the difference. Once again, brains beat out Seals' out-of-district money and campaign army imported from places as far away as Australia.
Kirk got clobbered in the places you would expect, like Waukegan, where TA hears that the Lake County Dems were telling people on the street that if they did not cast a straight "D" ballot, their vote for Obama would not count. Typical Terry Link-style politics, I'm afraid. Kirk made some surprising gains in some townships though, such as Moraine (+ 6.08%), West Deerfield (+ 5.06%), Northfield (+ 1.65%), and New Trier (+ 8.11%).
And, in a testament to Kirk's incredible popularity, he outperformed Obama in some townships, even though Obama beat McCain. In Libertyville township, for example, Obama got 10,823 votes, while McCain got 9,863. Kirk, though, got a whopping 12,794, beating Obama himself by almost 2,000 votes (and McCain by almost 3,000), even though Obama beat McCain by 960 votes (Seals, by comparison to Kirk got 7,732 votes to Kirk's 12,794 in Libertyville Township).
All in all, Kirk lost ground to Seals on a percentage basis by - 1.45% in Lake County and - 0.22% in Cook County, for a total of - 0.83% District-wide. Given the fact that the Seals camp spent about $6 million (counting outside groups) against Kirk, and bussed in the precinct workers like last time, Team Kirk did themselves proud. A lot of credit goes to the Kirk fundraising team, who set records in almost every quarter, and allowed Kirk to compete against a onslaught of outside Dem money. Sorry, DCCC, better luck next time in some other district.
It'll be interesting to see what Lauren Beth Gash does now. Considering that Dan Seals can't even get mentioned on Ellen Beth Gill's blog, I wonder if he would even have any support among the Dems if he were to run again. And, I haven't heard much out of Jay Footlik, but it's a just a tad early yet. We won't have much longer to wait, though. After the senate seat mess gets resolved, and we get past the holidays, look for Dem hopefuls to start floating trial balloons among Dem donors and party officials to see if they might have a chance to corner the market on the Dem support.
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11 comments:
Thanks TA for this summary of Congressman Kirk's successes and Seals' inept performance. It appears that Tammy Duckworth is the front runner to take Obama's seat. The real question is will the Illinois Republican organization, both moderates and conservatives, be in a mood to stop the crippling infighting that has plagued us all for so long and rally around a consensus builder like Kirk? Kirk can raise the money, appeal to voters who will not accept the status quo, and has the foreign policy expertise that is unmatched by any current Member in either the House or the Senate. Wake up Illinois Republicans and get a taste of victory by deploying Kirk as the choice by ALL REPUBLICANS to be their Senate candidate.
Anon, timing is everything in life, surely in politics. While I share your enthusiasm for Senator Mark Kirk, I am firmly convinced that the time will not be in 2010. My fear is that there will not be a clear field, that our Congressman would be subjected to a costly Primary, that our nation will still be in the Obamamania mode in the next couple of years. Our Congressman's enormous appeal and intelligence is unmatched. That said, I still go back to the timing of a potential run for a Senate seat. And TA, once you take a look at the just filed Victory 2008 FEC report I think you will be floored at what the Kirk team really had thrown at them by the DCCC, by Dick Durbin (close to another $250,000) to try to defeat Mark, 5K contributions from many other well known Democrats. That FEC report will have you run for the Alka Seltzer bottle but thank the amazing team that helped bring the victory to the "good guy" on 11/4. This district does vote person and not party. Hopefully the DCCC, the leaders of the 10th Dems who must still be holding court at the Deerfield Hyatt wondering what in the world happened to their guy, and all the other misfits who spewed lies and misinformation back to the drawing board to figure out their next move. I have a suggestion: go elsewhere NOW.
Anon 9:37. You hit it right on. While I have often said I'd love to see our exceptional Congressman living at the White House I agree timing is everything. Had John McCain won it would have been another story. We need to keep Congressman Kirk where he is and wait for a better time.
Thanks for the 'vote' of confidence, Anon 9:59. The lack of a fully functioning, credible state party to assist in what would be a very tough run, without question. Raising the huge sums it will take for a state-wide run is just one scary issue at this point in time. Developing a huge support staff that would need to do the myriad details on a day to day basis needs to be considererd. I return to my theme of timing. Right now, in this environment, in this giddy Obama world, I'd rather hold onto the Congressman and build on his rising seniority and prominence than risk it all at this time.
With the democrats controlling everything except Mark's seat-white house, senate, congress,EVERYTHING in Illinois there really isn't much for them to do but become dissapointed by their crackpot leaders the way we already are, though I am more pissed at our own people for not keeping these nutcases out of power in the first place.
Sistah Gash will most likely be named to some b.s. white houses advisory board that will require her to go to d.c. once a year to see how much they are spending on pencils at the holocaust museum or how many kids aren't getting science educations in the schools her unions screw up.
Locally I think it is high time for a discussion on us-which local GOP organizations aren't working, why don't we have any policies, where is our message and who besides Keith and Tim will be our messengers? How can we stop this mobster bench warming basketball player gianoullias or madigan from becoming new blagotroger clones?
Dan's a loser squared without a job in a recession, he is finished here since Hopkins and Chicago grads dont waste their time in trashy capitals downstate and he's not d.c. or cook county bound anytime soon. Time to stop kicking a dead pup and to focus on revivng our own engine.
Hey folks, while we are all bemoaning our fate (with the exception of the best Congressman in the country) do we hear anything from the 10th Dist representative to the State central Committee. If I recall, there were several people wanting to be elected (by the party committeeman Cook Co - and whatever the same position is in Lake Co)to that representative slot. Wheeling Township Committeeman who is probably the hardest worker I've ever seen in a committeeman although a bit too conservative for my taste and the New Trier Township Committee whom I never hear of except when there is a big-wig in town and then he's first in line to great the big-wig or have his picture taken. Shouldn't the Cook and Lake Co. party heads, elected to those positions, start showing some leadership instead of expecting Congressman Kirk to be the savior of the state of the party in the State. Just asking.
There's a great poem where each line goes first they came for someone and because it wasn't me I didn't care. Eventually they came for the guy and no one was there. Well Mark is that guy and he's almost there. His political operation is about as strong as the french army, and rivals any professional athlete in its selfishness. They don't know or care how to step it up and get in volved beyond a local model congress.
It's a great strategy and has worked so well that past followers of it include now former reps charlie bass, jeb bradley, sue kelly, chris shays, rob simmons, tom reynolds, tom davis, and the list goes on. One day someone will come for Mark and then folks that will be it and we will learn to feel like massachusettes republicans.
The writing is on the wall, if we don't read it and get active, we will live it.
Fan of King Louis Astaves the Ellen Slayer (FOKLAES)
Blagoveich is in Federal Custody
Although I am glad to see the Blagojevich chapter coming to an end it is a sad day in Illinois politics that once again our citizens have to stand by and accept corrupt and morally bankrupt leadership.
Ladies and gentlemen the time is now to take our state back. The time is now to rebuild the Republican party into something that this state--the whole state--can be proud of. We have to engage our neighbors and friends and offer new ideas and leadership to the people of Illinois.
We are a great state and a great people. We deserve great leadership. We deserve a state house that is not afraid to do the right thing and leaders who reject the old way of doing things. Those days are over. Let's take back our state.
Tim Stratton
Candidate for State Rep, 58th District
Tim,
No question about it. Just finished reading the 76 page complaint while listening to Fitzgerald's press conference. There is a lot to digest and one reading isn't enough.
There will be a whole flock of further indictments based upon who agreed to be part of this mess, and who was approached and then went to the Feds instead.
A parlor game of who is "candidate 1" etc. for U.S. Senate has developed on several blogs. Which candidates promised to raise oodles of cash for our "esteemed" Governor in exchange for becoming a U.S. Senator. Is "candidate 5" Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr.? Is "candidate 1" Valerie Jarrett? Is "candidate 4" Emil Jones?
By the way, the Tim Stratton numbers in Moraine Township were higher than the last two candidates against Karen May over three races. There is a message out there and we need to exploit it more to get good candidates like yourself elected in the future!
Louis G. Atsaves
I am candidate #5
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