Fresh-faced (but possibly too fresh-faced) Ilya Sheyman failed to pull it out over Brad Schneider, in a war to win the hearts and minds of "progressives" in IL-10, with Sheyman conceding to Schneider a short while ago. Watch Schneider lose that claim to be "progressive" in about a milisecond now that he's won the primary, and watch him embrace his "centrist" donations to politicians of both sides, which he spent months trying to explain away. Ah, well, such is politics. Most Dems will likely forgive Schneider, except of course our friend Ellen.
Clearly Schneider presents a tougher threat to Congressman Bob Dold than Sheyman, but from what I hear from my Dem friends, Schneider is a lousy communicator, so he's got some real work to do.
In any event, a few of my favorites won around Lake County - Keith Brin won for Circuit Court Clerk in a tight race against Jerry Dietz, among other interesting races.
One of the more interesting stats, apart from the generally low voter turnout, is that in Lake County at least, there were a TON more people taking GOP ballots than Dem ballots. Yes, obviously the Republicans had a presidential primary on the line that had been getting a lot of press specifically here in Illinois in the days before the election, but the Dems had a hot race in Il-10, too. So, that may bode well for the GOP's chances in Lake County in general this fall, but it's a political eternity until November, so all we can do for now is to stay tuned in...
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26 comments:
Winners
Dold-Romney won't be the disaster at the top of the ticket that perry would have been.
sheyman-give the kid his due, we disagree with him, but he did it the hard way, and it was impressive for 25.
Losers
10th dems-the whole point of being a democrat is to elect democrats. You chose a republican.
Ellen-her nominee is now the guy that spent 10 years working against her.
moveon-they got beat twice including duckworth.
FOKLAES-I didn't think the 10th dems would nominate a financial services republican. So much for all that moveon crap they said they believed in.
Illinois voters-15 years ago it had porter, hyde, crane, edgar, fitzgerald, now it's got quinn, hultgren, duckworth and whatever other bums we find this fall.
FOKLAES
TA you are right on point with what to expect from Schneider as this 10th CD race begins tomorrow. He will rush to show that he is the real moderate, that he is a great fit for this district. Wrong. He's verbose, he's not very focused, he's had a more than interesting job history. But put all that aside. Bob Dold is a moderate, his voting record, not my words, attest to that fact. National Journal, Roll Call and Politico all show him as a centrist, moderate Republican who works well in a bipartisan manner. But this is going to be a very tough race for Bob Dold. One thing is sure in this rough and tumble campaign and that's Schneider's ability to reach the folks with the deep pockets. I'm still betting that Bob Dold will remain our Congressman.
I too have to wonder what is going on with voters. For a presidential year this is the lowest turnout as far as I could find in the clerk's record. That does not bode well for the party; both of them. Even the there Tea Party Candidates in the race didn't have blow-out wins.
FOKLAES,
I hate to admit it, but I agree 100% with your post (probably the only time ever did). Schneider is in reality a republican, only slightly to the left of Dold. Ilya was tough and very impressive for his age, and my feeling is that he will be back in a couple of years and maybe get elected then.
In contrast to most people, I think that Schneider will be the easiest opponent for Dold. He seems like a weak, non-charismatic candidate. In some ways like Dan Seals who was a terrible candidate for the democrats, except that he was a real liberal democrat. Although Dold has been a terrible congressman for IL-10 in my opinion, but I will not be surprised now if he is re-elected in November.
Blue,
Your evaluation of Schneider couldn't be further from the truth. People like FOKLAES want to make the case that he's a "republican" because, for some backwards reason, they think that message will get people to vote for Dold. However, Brad is pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, and does not want to eliminate medicare as we know it. Those three positions alone put him well outside modern Republican thought. Yet, Brad's has real, tangible business experience and understanding of how to create jobs gives him serious crossover appeal. In November, this election will be about(to borrow a line from James Carville): It's the Economy, Stupid!
Dold, TA and FOKLAES are going to have to defend two years of votes that say the GOP wants to end medicare as we know it, privatize social security, and put the health of the economy and the credit of the United States at risk as the entire country was held hostage by Dold and his fellow freshman members of Congress. Schneider can beat Dold on the economy, he certainly beats Dold on Israel and he is going to have the most favorable cutting of the tenth district in history (a district that Bob doesn't even live in!--we've heard that one before, right TA?).
Blue, Ilya was in over his head and was out of his league. He ran a strong campaign, but this district has always valued experience as a top factor in it's vote. Brad has it, along with the policy positions to set him up for a victory.
Until Next Time,
A Concerned Colonial
Swell - looks like we have 7 months to look forward to of CC being the #1 Schneider cheerleader on the blog. CC, ask Ellen how she's feeling this morning after her hero Tree got cut down?
Concerned Colonial,
You wrote:
"Brad is pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, and does not want to eliminate medicare as we know it."
I agree. But that does not really make a him a real democrat. It just shows that he is not a "modern" republican. The fact that the republican party of today has degenerated to a radical, bizarre in many ways, right-wing extremist party with religious fundamentalist influences does not mean that we should be supporting blue dogs. At the end of the day, the blue dogs are the ones who have facilitated the current situation and allowed the overall right-wing direction of the country.
I will probably force myself to vote for Schneider in November, the same way I will probably force myself to vote for Obama. In both cases though it would be totally unenthusiastic votes due to lack of good candidates. Whether Schneider wins or loses to Dold in November, it will probably not make much difference in policy.
Cheers,
Blue Wind
The 10th District is pretty good at rejecting Progressive house-husbands for Congress. Brad Schneider is Dan Seals, but without the impressive parts.
And let's get the record straight on Bob Dold's commitment to the safety and security of Israel. His record is PERFECT, he has the support of some of the most important pro-Israel voters in this district. To say that Schneider, because he's Jewish, will be better than Bob Dold is totally false and very hurtful. Being born into the faith does not make one pro-Israel. Dold went to Israel BEFORE he won his first election, has made another trip to reinforce his strong commitment and understanding. Let's not make Israel the focal point of this election. That's not only unwise, it's very damaging as well. Schneider will have his supporters, but Bob Dold has earned the support and respect of many in the pro-Israel community out here and you'll these people come out loud and clear in strong support of his re-election. For Schneider of the Dems to paint Dold as some right-wing nut case is also morally corrupt. Dold's voting record on issues that matter to voters in this District will stand up to anything that's thrown at him by others. Let's hope this campaign will be on truth and real issues.
FOKLEAS -- 1 for 4 on your predictions. Nice. A .250 average lets you start at 2B for the Cubs.
As a Dold supporter, even I know that Schneider will be very-very difficult to beat. The new district lines certainly won't help. Frankly, I think Dold should hope for a brokered convention to EXCITE the base -- Romney = Dole (no pun or comaprison intended to our fantastic Rep) in terms of Republican turnout.
I see that Ilya's strategy of "he's not a Democrat" is continuing even after the primary. It didn't work then and it won't work now. The moniker may be blue wind, but the comment is just post-loss breaking wind.
But I'm encouraged that foklaes lists Hultgren as a bum. Couldn't agree more.
The Lake County GOP's full embrasure of the Tea Party is keenly evinced by Tom Weber's victory over Tim Newton in LCB 3. Bob Churchill tried to be sneaky in his support of Weber, but some of Newton's neighboring commissioners saw it coming and they're sick. They see a Joe Neal, JoAnne Osmond, Tom Weber ticket as a shift far too far to the right that will now threaten Paxton and Carlson. Nerheim won't be able to mesh well with them in the field. The road to November is long and land-mine ridden and for many a GOP'er, it just got worse.
TA,
I thought I'd keep quiet until we had a nominee (again, your posts on GOP primaries for state senate/house don't really do much for me). Unlike the last guy, I truly do believe that Brad can and will win and would be positioned to do great things in Congress. He has already built a strong relationship with many key leaders and would be set for success from day 1, unlike back-bencher Bob, who can't even get Mitt Romney to pronounce his name correctly (Don Bold?).
I'm glad the Dold campaign staff is already trying to defend Bob's Israel record, they better start practicing now. Brad's dominance on this key issue has nothing to do with faith, but rather, Brad's lifelong demonstrated commitment to supporting the State of Israel. He has been a community leader on this issue for a long time, it was how he initially got involved with politics. In contrast, Bingo Bob only found out where Israel was on a map the year before he declared for Congress.
We can talk more later about Bob's complicity with his fellow GOP freshman has they held the country and economy hostage, but I am looking forward to many weeks of robust (and hopefully fact-based) debate.
Until Next Time,
A Concerned Colonial
1. financial services guy who spends $150k to buy himself an election, slams moveon, donates to prolife gop senators, quotes a bush defense secretary,-if 10th dems were really democrats you would be running Ilya on a 3rd party ticket because schneider is everything you are supposed to be against. The 10th dems were already a joke because your local springfield legislators were cheap squaws of chief madigan, now you're an even bigger joke because the guy you just nominated is everything you claim to be against.
2. There were no good parts to dan seals, except the ability to lose to MSK on election days.
3. Let's not be confused to who bob dold is. He's an old school conservative kenilworth republican who has morphed into a Mark Kirk republican to get elected. He's not tea party, he's not a moderate, he's not pro Israel, he's a more moderate version of peter roskam who dresses like andy bernard.
4.Schneider won't be as difficult to beat. I think the district will go for obama maybe 57-43 and I could see dold easily winning 52-48. Hopefully the senator will be back to make that happen.
FOKLAES
FOKLAES
Your 57% for Obama sounds about right, but could be low for this new district.
Cook lists the new district as Dem +8, meaning it went about 61% for Obama in 2008, given Obama's 53% nationally.
It will be very hard for Dold to outperform the top of the ticket by the 9 points you suggest, or the 12 points I think he needs in this new district.
He has done a decent job and seems a nice guy, but he hasn't been in the news much. I don't see him on TV or in the local papers. He needs to do more ribbon cutting.
Dold will have money, but the DCCC won't give up easy on this one. Dold hasn't made a strong impression yet, and while Kirk could possibly have outperformed the top of the ticket by 10+%, I've met Senator Kirk, as the saying goes, and Dold just isn't in that category.
Dold has a tough road ahead in this new district particularly without Kirk at the top of the ticket, and in a presidential year.
How did we end up with two Republicans running against each other in the 10th? :-)
Check out: http://www.schneidertherepublican.com/
1. I said when MSK moved accross the capitol 3 years ago our best shot was recruiting a reed bundy or a doug o'brien or something like that-a kirk organization hand who could navigate the really tough politics that are the 10th for republicans and would have the political savvy to do things like the suburban strategy. Dold's not a bad guy and he's worked very very very hard and I will admit he proved me wrong 2 years ago, but you need to have that extra juice to win here.
2. As for obama, gas prices are high, the economy sucks-which is why he's talking about womens health, and schneider is in a real tough position because he can't really run on anything the democrats have done the last few years. The college kids aren't going to mail absentee ballots home for obama this year because their older siblings are unemployed and there are a lot of moderates and indpendents who are out of work or tired of paying $5gas-which is likely to happen once Israel bombs Iran in 2 months.
3. Hopefully Kirk will send some of his dc staff home for the rest of the year (the senate isn't doing anything anyway) and put them in charge of the dold outfit. He could use the help and it can't hurt that liesel is already helping out running NRCC retention.
4. It will be interesting to see how much of his own $ schneider drops into the race.
FOKLAES
Folkhero's poor predictive capabilities are just more proof that he is a Washington, D.C. animal increasingly out-of-touch with the 10th District. How many times does Dold and his team have to to throw egg on his face?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/03/22/illinois_s_10th_district_how_the_left_blew_it.html
Sheyman's take on why they lost. I think it was one of the more epic fails. Brought back memories of dean botching Iowa in 2004.
FOKLAES
Low turnout should have helped the more enthusiastic, more extreme candidate - Sheyman. That blog says MoveOn had 15,000 members in that district but Sheyman only got 12,700 votest total.
The reason Sheyman lost is simple. Three-quarters of primary voters are over 55. The elderly vote in primaries - young people don't.
There is no way those older voters were going to vote for a 25-year old kid that looks 18.
Sheyman was smoke and mirrors with a bunch of enthusiastic teenage volunteers but he was never going to get the average middle of the road voter on election day.
Throw in endorsements from Susan Garrett, Karen May, the Tribune, and the Daily Herald and the older voters went with the safer choice.
Low turnout should have helped the more enthusiastic, more extreme candidate - Sheyman. That blog says MoveOn had 15,000 members in that district but Sheyman only got 12,700 votest total.
The reason Sheyman lost is simple. Three-quarters of primary voters are over 55. The elderly vote in primaries - young people don't.
There is no way those older voters were going to vote for a 25-year old kid that looks 18.
Sheyman was smoke and mirrors with a bunch of enthusiastic teenage volunteers but he was never going to get the average middle of the road voter on election day.
Throw in endorsements from Susan Garrett, Karen May, the Tribune, and the Daily Herald and the older voters went with the safer choice.
Low turnout should have helped the more enthusiastic, more extreme candidate - Sheyman. That blog says MoveOn had 15,000 members in that district but Sheyman only got 12,700 votest total.
The reason Sheyman lost is simple. Three-quarters of primary voters are over 55. The elderly vote in primaries - young people don't.
There is no way those older voters were going to vote for a 25-year old kid that looks 18.
Sheyman was smoke and mirrors with a bunch of enthusiastic teenage volunteers but he was never going to get the average middle of the road voter on election day.
Throw in endorsements from Susan Garrett, Karen May, the Tribune, and the Daily Herald and the older voters went with the safer choice.
Wait! Did he really say this?
Foklaes: "Illinois voters-15 years ago it had porter, hyde, crane, edgar, fitzgerald, now it's got quinn, hultgren, duckworth and whatever other bums we find this fall."
You actually put drunks like Crane, philanderers like Hyde, and wimps like Fitzgerald in the same class as Porter and Edgar? And then call a decorated veteran like Duckworth a bum? And then you don't even include Joe Walsh in your list of bums?
Me thinks its time for foklaes to lay off the Oxy.
Over in Pravda, er Ellenville, our thin skinned heroine writes up a short fantasy post and then makes up 5 fantasy critical responses to it, as >proof> that she allows dissenting opinions. She then responds to her 5 meaning she is engaged in a fantasy conversation with herself.
All over being called out over in Patchville for banning comments critical of her rantings.
But then she knows the pulse of the 10th, her candidate got 8% of the vote.
Louis G. Atsaves
So glad you noticed the Ellenville insanity, Lou. It's almost funny, isn't' it. Her guy got trampled, nobody cared to buy what she was selling so now she's on a rant again. The fact that Bob Dold has been recognized for his moderate stance backed up by his votes will never be acknowledged by Ellen. To her he's someone of her imagination. Facts be damned. Bob Dold and Brad Schhneider should steer clear of Ellenville, as you call it, and run their campaigns based on what one has already shown himself to be as backed up by his floor statements and his votes, and one on the merits of what he thinks he can bring to the 10th CD and our nation. Should be an interesting several months ahead. Hope Ellen has lots of tranquilizers in her medicine cabinet.
Ellen's response is hilarious. Someone posts independent studies about Bob Dold's moderate, bipartisan record and her response is to ignore them and use blogs as citations. Even Greg Hinz called Dold a moderate the other day.
#betterfindnewtalkingpoints
I would actually take Rich Miller's assessment of a candidate or office holder over Greg Hinz's any day of the week. And you guys love blogger posts when they favor your numbskull congressbug and then blast the bloggers when they call'm out.
As for Louis's fantasy about Ellen's phony posts, it's just weird. Louis's comments about Ellen here, on The Eye and on her blog are almost stalker-level obsessive. There appear to be all sorts of comments to her posts, for and against, so, I don't get where your issue is here, Louis. It seems so inappropriately personal. Relax. Go read a comic book, or, you know, foreclose on a widow's home. Stuff you enjoy, ya' know?
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