Sorry for the tardy report, but it's been a busy day. Today, of course, was the earliest first day of filing for petitions in the entire history of Illinois. The primary is February 5th. That basically means three months of hardcore campaigning for the Dems for the right to go head-to-head with Mark Kirk next November. Meanwhile, Mark Kirk will be in the enviable position of being able to save most of his dough for the general election.
TA's sources indicate that Kirk's crowd was up near the front of the line, with Footlik's camp somewhere well behind Kirk. The Seals contingent was far behind in line, in fact, about an hour behind Footlik by most estimates. I don't know specifically, but I assume Seals made it in line before 8:00 a.m., which is the time I believe you have to be there to secure a place in a run-off lottery if there is more than one candidate for the office. So we'll have to see who wins the coveted first place position on the Dem ballot. Either way, the Dems are going to have to start getting up a lot earlier in the morning to beat Kirk.
Seals seems to have cut it kind of close, but perhaps he needed to finish a last minute blitz through the somewhat alien territory of the Tenth District to pick up enough signatures. We'll see how many he has, and how many Footlik has--a nice start to the real primary campaign would be a cross-petition challenge among the Dem candidates.
There was no sign of David J. Kalbfleisch, the Green Party candidate (I know I've said no ad hominem attacks on my blog, so consider this a strategic tip, not an attack--this guy's web pictures make him look like he's 20 years old and hasn't had to shave a day in his life. I would try to make him a look a little older if I were his handlers). If he's still planning to run, he may be waiting until near the end of the filing period to file, which might not be a bad idea, as it gives less time to set up a challenge. I don't see Kirk filing a challenge, but Seals might.
So, it seems like Seals intends to run, at least for now. I'm assuming he got the guys at The Point to give him the day off to go file. Wonder how long that will last. And maybe standing in line with all of the excitement will motivate Footlik to go after Seals and start some real campaigning. Someone made the observation a short while ago on the blog that Footlik's "press release" attacking Seals for not debating was not posted on his website, which was interesting. Footlik will have no choice but to go negative almost immediately, as the 10th District voters get that neither one of them is Kirk--they will want to know what the difference between the two Dems is, and the only truly effective way to do that is to criticize your opponent.
Any bets on how long it takes for the Seals-Footlik fireworks to begin? Anyone have an update on a planned debate?
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If I were a betting person, my money would be on as late a date as they can get away with. They are both solid enough Democrats to convince themselves that they can stay positive to the end. I don't think there are going to be many fireworks
TA,
Did you notice that not one reporter picked up the Footlik press release? Just as I suspected, they've already been spun by Seals. Footlik must do some earned media against Seals--possibly a debate with an empty chair waiting for Dan. That is, if he actually wants to win.
On one hand, the MSM is at least predisposed to favor Seals (in fact, I'm surprised the Waukegan News-Scum hasn't already come out to endorse Seals the day after the start of filing, but maybe they think they've already made themselves clear), but on the other hand, if there is no interim contest, they have nothing to write about except the general, and they have to sell newspapers for a whole year rehashing the same tired stories about Seals vs. Kirk, blah blah blah. So my bet is to look to see some meatier coverage soon (at least maybe in the Herald), now that filing has begun.
Publia, you may be right, but if the candidates can't bring themselves to go negative, their proxies will (and must) do it for them. It started months ago on Ellen's Blog, as she has been beating Footlik like a dog every chance she's had. The Footlik trolls on her Blog have fought back with enthusiasm-- in fact, it's been the only debate going on over there since she kicked TA off.
My bet is Seals will do only the one obligatory League of Women Voters debate. He has the name recognition among the Democrats and has yet to demonstrate an in depth knowledge of the issues. He won’t get in too much trouble in 30-second sound bites.
If Seals survives the primary hopefully Mark will beat him by the margins he did Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman. Maybe then we “won’t have Dan Seals to kick around any more.”
Oops, maybe I shouldn’t use that quote. We know what happened six years after it was uttered.
Anon 7:10- you may be right, but don't forget that Footlik has some cash to spend-- a couple hundred grand that should (and really must) be spent before the primary (if he's serious) can buy some decent media, and Seals will have to counter somehow.
You’re right, TA, Footlik has plenty of money to spend and needs to spend a chunk of it letting folks know how he is different from Seals.
The thing is, on core Democratic issues like the war, health care, social security and education, they are about the same. There is certainly a difference on Israel.
Where do you see their differences? Footlik needs something to attack other than Seals’ refusal to debate.
None of the Green Party candidates have filed yet, but I wouldn't read anything into it. Now that the Green Party is "established" under IL election law, they can slate-in anyone they want. For that reason, I don't see that the 10th Dems have anything to gain by challenging Kalbfleisch. He will be on the ballot even if they succede in excluding him from his (uncontested) primary.
Anon 11:03, I would spend the whole kitty, not just a chunk, otherwise there may be no tomorrow for Footlik.
I would paint Seals as soft on Israel's defense and imply that Footlik is the only one who can suck away Kirk's considerable Jewish following; otherwise there doesn't appear to be much difference between the two gents.
And, I would sell the point that Seals could not get it done in a landslide year for Dems, so Footlik's time is now. Will it work? We shall see...
He might also want to tie Dan to Schakowsky and the Illinois Dem machine. Tricky to do in the primary, but given the mess the illnois dems have made of the state it could be a useful wedge issue.
I notice Ellen's site has raised a whopping $550.00 for Seals since she first posted the donation link.
Not much of a following over there!
Keep up the good work TA!
Louis G. Atsaves
Not only that, Lou, you may not have noticed that Seals' campaign website fundraising is linked directly to ActBlue; in other words, any money raised by people going to his website is funneled through ActBlue, which in one respect I think is why Seals' ActBlue total funds raised seems impressive. That number accounts for ALL of his online donations.
Obviously, Seals can run his fundraising campaign however he likes (within the limits of the law), but my point is people might be more impressed by his ActBlue totals than perhaps they should be, since it includes everything he's raised outside of direct non-Internet donations.
Remember, Seals's campaign is run by the TenthDems, an operation set up by Robert Creamer -- the convicted federal income tax evader and husband of Rep. Jan Schakowski.
Anon. 1:36 p.m. you need to get your facts straight.
The Tenth Dems was started by Lauren Beth Gash and three local staffers from her 2000 Congressional campaign. Bob Creamer had nothing to do with the founding or operation of the organization.
And, some members of the Tenth Dems support Seals while others like Footlik.
Anon 8:32--I generally accept your version of the genesis of the 10th Dems, as I would say that the Schakowsky/Creamer influence is more directly seen (today at least) as supporting Seals himself as opposed to the 10th Dems in general. But, from what I can tell, the powers that be in the 10th Dems (as well as the establishment Democratic party, at least in Lake County) are solidly behind Seals, and any Footlik supporters among the 10th Dems faithful are likely to be quickly ostricized if they out themselves as Footlik Fanatics.
Can you really tell me that the Footlik supporters are afforded equal treatment and respect as the Seals supporters among the 10th Dems?
It’s Anon 8:32 again. Just for the record, Lauren Beth Gash is neutral in the Seals-Footlik race and she still heads the group. You may be correct that many of the members favor Seals, there are some who support Jay publicly and strongly.
LBG may say she's neutral, since she has a position as leader of the group. Although interestingly that hasn't stopped the rest of the Dem establishment from jumping on early to Seals (e.g., Link, Garrett, Ryg, the rest).
But we all know LBG and EBG are two bodies, one mind, so if EBG is taking the attack cat role, it makes LBG equally culpable in my mind. Curious to know if EBG is as offensive to Footlik supporters in person as she is on her blog, or if she prefers only the push-button attack mode.
BTW, Ellen reported yesterday that Seals and Footlik are scheduled for two League of Women Voter debates on Jan 10 and Jan 12. A bit late in the season, but better than nothing I suppose. So, Seals may have now diffused the only issue that he has attacked Seals on, but if I were Footlik I would be out there slamming Seals every chance I get, AND still demanding more debates.
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