Will the Tenth District Dems Rely Too Much on Foreign Aid?

While commenting yesterday over on Unincorporated Middle (thanks for the shout-out about the new blog over there by the way, and also to El Rider at Flying Debris), we discussed the premise that after the primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DCCC") is going to come down like a ton of bricks on the Tenth District. Certainly, the Seals camp has a vested interest in perpetuating this notion, which gives his campaign both hope and an aura of inevitability (even invincibility?) But, let's examine whether that's true, and whether in fact it's a good thing for Seals anyway.

First off, Mr. Seals has to win the primary. As much as his camp would love for Footlik to drop out, Footlik shows no signs of doing so--he out fundraised Seals the last quarter and while he was behind this quarter, in total dollars raised, he is right in there ($480,336 Footlik v. $567,192)--especially considering that Seals has (or should have had) the big jump on Footlik by having run just last cycle, greater name recognition, and a more established local presence (well, in the 9th District anyway).

So, why hasn't Seals pulled far away from Footlik in fundraising? One reason may be that some former prominent Seals contributors have jumped ship to Footlik. We won't name names here, but you can figure this out by looking at the campaign disclosures. Secondly, some of the local money may simply be waiting on the sidelines to see who comes out of the primary scarred and bloody, but the winner. But, the true believers tend to give early, and fence-sitting money is money that may find a different home if the eventual nominee does not inspire donors to write some big checks, especially in the face of a huge deficit compared to Kirk--no one likes to feel they are throwing their money away on an un-winnable race. There are plenty of other Dems that will be out there with their hands out (can we predict Hillary?)

But, more likely, this is simply the best Seals (or Footlik) can do, and it is an indication of how the campaign is going to go. It's not a coincidence that Kirk is absolutely on fire when it comes to fundraising, and even though some of the local press seems intent on making this a race (see here), the more enlightened national press focuses on Kirk's success, not the opponents nipping at his heels. See here where CQ Quarterly states that "Kirk of Illinois appears to be in the strongest financial position of any of the vulnerable Republicans." Also Roll Call noted that "Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), who was sitting on more than $1.5 million as of Sept. 30 and has outraised the combined intake of the two highly touted Democrats seeking to oust him…" (sorry, no link since you have to be a Roll Call subscriber to access).

So, what's going to happen when the primary is over (two men enter, one man leaves)? Will DCCC indeed parachute in with the troops and millions of dollars? I'm not so sure anymore, even though this is still early and anything can happen. First, by the time the primary is over, whatever pennies Seals and Footlik have socked away will be spent. And if Seals doesn't spend every dime he has to stave off Footlik, no matter what early polls might show (and there have not been any publicly-released ones to my knowledge), he's a fool. A primary is like taking a case to trial- you don't show up expecting to only give a half-effort no matter how clear and convincing you think your case is--you come loaded for bear, or don't come. So, whomever the winner is, his coffers will be empty, and DCCC will be looking at the prospect of having to completely replenish them, at least initially.

Second, DCCC has a lot on its plate. The Dems' success in the last cycle is a two-edged sword. Yes, they won a lot of seats, but many of those were in districts that only slightly leaned Dem in that election, and it was in a year of great national outrage against the war and incumbents in general. Regardless of the state of the war in the next election (and I think the situation will have improved greatly by then), that outrage has been spent, in large part, and if any is left, may be directed by the leftist zealots against their own incumbents who were unsuccessful in ending the war the day after they took office (they are a tough crowd). So, the point is that DCCC needs to worry greatly about keeping their advantage, as well as trying to pick off a few new seats. For example, Melissa Bean was a winner in a largely Republican-leaning district. She has at least one legitimate opponent, and she is not hugely popular among the left wing of her own party. Will DCCC rather spend money to help protect Bean, or spend it to try to knock off Kirk? It depends on the spread between Kirk's coffers and his challenger. If the Kirk number is $2 mil or so, and the challenger is at $0, DCCC knows it is a $3MM investment to even be competitive. That $3MM could help defend a lot more seats instead of trying to pick off one--especially with a challenger that either already lost once in a landslide Dem year (Seals) or a relative unknown with no clear message besides he's not Kirk (Footlik).

But what if DCCC does ride in a white horse to save Seals/Footlik? What's the Dem policy on foreign aid? Does the fact that the 10th Dist. Dem nominee can't be competitive without a huge influx of outside cash mean that Seals/Footlik is doomed because he cannot apparently raise enough local support to fund the campaign? Could be. Kirk's numbers do not just represent money in the bank, but they also represent votes.

Consider this a 10th Dist. campaign open string.