Friday, November 13, 2009

Poll Shows Kirk Still Leading Giannoulias 44-38 in General Election Matchup

Got this yesterday from the Kirk for Senate campaign. Download the poll toplines here.

- Five-term GOP Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk released a new poll today that shows him maintaining a six-point lead over likely general election opponent Alexi Giannoulias.

- In a survey of 772 likely Illinois voters, Kirk leads Giannoulias 44-38 with 18 percent undecided. The poll, conducted by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies on November 3, 2009 with a 3.5 percent margin of error, follows an October 8, 2009 survey that showed Kirk leading 42-35 with 23 percent undecided.

- In the same survey Kirk leads other potential Democrat opponents by larger margins: David Hoffman 43-32; Cheryle Jackson 45-33; and Jacob Meister 45-28.

- Kirk for Senate reported raising nearly $3 million for the election cycle and more than $1.6 million during the third quarter – $500,000 more than Giannoulias. The Kirk campaign now counts 15,000 volunteers around Illinois who offered to circulate petitions, display yard signs, walk in parades and help spread enthusiasm for Kirk’s candidacy.

- Congressman Kirk’s list of key Republican endorsements continues to grow, including Gov. Jim Edgar, House Leader Tom Cross, Senate Leader Christine Radogno, U.S. Reps. Biggert, Shimkus & Roskam, Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady, GOP County Chairmen’s Association President Randy Pollard, and a growing number of county, township and local activists. The Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate Campaign Chair, John Cornyn (R-TX), and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) joined a large list of U.S. Senators that endorsed and contributed to Congressman Kirk’s campaign.

Quote Attributed to Kirk Spokesman Eric Elk:

“With a Democrat governor facing criminal trial, unemployment over 10 percent and spending out of control, Illinois families need a reform-minded fiscal conservative like Congressman Mark Kirk who will fight to keep taxes low, rein in spending and create good, high-paying jobs."



Anonymous said...

This is a HUGE waste of money. Nothing is going to change between now and February 2nd, other than raising more money, and the democrats destroying each other (bombs away, cheryle). They should have saved the 35k they paid mcclaughlin and used it for a media buy or to build up county infrastructure in some of the collar county battlegrounds next fall where those resources can make the difference between getting the last 5-6,000 votes he needs.

They are really polling because they are very scared of what's happened to other moderates happening to Mark where the conservatives light the kindling from his votes on the surge, cap n'trade, guns, abortion, gays. You'll notice no lines from the poll "if you heard mark was pro-choice would you still considerhim?". They're not sleeping well and won't until Mark's elected in 51 weeks and then they can start worrying about fending off a primary challenge or him getting tagged as a rightwinger.


Gold Fish said...

Kirk is being cautious but putting out these numbers presents a case for who can take back the seat. His audience is not the right wingers per se but the average republican that really does not get into the inside baseball of blogs and interparty warfare. What these elections told us is that the independents are coming back and Kirk needs to capture them. He does that by telling them he can win the general. Many of the ultra right will not vote for him anyway.

Anonymous said...

he's wasting money he needs in the general to take the temperature of the right because he's made dumb votes on cap and trade.

On the positive side I've seen more written about the party's struggle in losing areas like ours in the last week than I have in the last decade which is a good sign that the party is ready to start putting forth better canidates than blago's bud beth coulsen.


Gold Fish said...


I think most candidates would be fairly upset if they ran a race looking to November only to lose in February. If you lose, all the money in the bank does not mean a thing.

I do not think Kirk is going to lose this primary either but there is also no need to be over confident.

Easy said...

if you read the memo, you would know that it was done by magellan which only does robo-polls. so, it probably cost them about 800 bucks. not a bad expense for the blogosphere buzz and fundraiser buzz it created.

Blue Wind said...

Kirk will lose. He has no chance to be elected senator. Illinois is a blue state and will remain so. Kirk would have been probably electable as governor,and I think he made a mistake not to enter that race. Lets not forget that he barely got re-elected in IL 10. In fact, the only reason he got re-elected in my opinion is the fact that his opponent, Dan Seals, was weak and did not run a good campaign. Giannoulias is a great candidate and he will win easily over Kirk. The only reason the polls show Kirk ahead now is name recognition. But that will change with time.

Anonymous said...

You seem so sure of yourself, Blue Wind. Blow your hot air nonsense elsewhere. Kirk has won in each of the past cycles because the voters clearly see him to be the far better candidate. Seals has 2 shots at winning, got money from the DCCC, had foot soldiers from the unions who were brought in by the busloads to help him. No, Blue Wind, Mark Kirk won because at the end of the day some people actually DO want the best person to represent them in Congress. I'm not saying that the Senate run will be easy, not at all. But again, when people all over the State begin to see and hear Mark Kirk the choice will be one easier to make. I can't wait to hear Alexi in a debate with Mark Kirk. Your candidate has a heap of learning to do if he's going up against Kirk in any kind of serious debate. Blow your wind some other place today.

Blue Wind said...

You are right on one thing. Dan Seals totally failed to win, while he should have. He was a weak candidate and I hope he will not be the democratic candidate this year.

As for Kirk, I will give you this. He is very smart and a good politician, otherwise he would not be electable in IL10. However, he is not as "moderate" as he pretends to be and he has a big problem. He was a rubber stamp for Bush for many years. Seals failed to expose the obvious. Gianoulias is very different. He is much more aggressive.

IL is a very blue state. With a strong democrat as an opponent, Kirk can not win a statewide election. Gianoulias is very strong. Again, I think Kirk made a huge mistake not running for governor. He would have probably won that race. But he will be defeated in the senate race.