Veteran reporter Steve Sadin of The Patch has been doing a great job lately on keeping an eye on local affairs in the 10th District and Lake County, and he posted a nice update on the 10th District race from the Dem side, now that petition filing is getting close to closing.
As Sadin notes, so far, it seems that incumbent Congressman Bob Dold has not drawn a GOP opponent. We have not heard anything on the street about any credible candidate sticking his or her neck up to discuss a possible run, to say nothing of actually circulating petitions (I'm sure we would have heard about that), so I think it's safe to say that Dold will run unopposed. I suspect his million-dollar-plus warchest probably also had something to do with dampening the enthusiasm of any potential Republican competition.
Not so on the Dem side, as in addition to the candidates we've been talking about over the past few months, Sadin notes that yet another one has filed petitions (Aloys Rutagwibira of Hainesville), for a grand total of five Dem primary hopefuls: Rutagwibira, progressive activist and organizer Ilya Sheyman of Waukegan, Deerfield management consultant Brad Schneider, air force reservist and businessman John Tree of Long Grove, and Mundelein attorney Vivek Bavda.
Assuming that all of the Dem candidates survive any petition challenges and that they all stick it out (the Dems in the 10th have had a history of not shying away from contested primaries), it will be interesting to see how having so many candidates on the ballot will effect the race. I think at this point, our view is that Ilya Sheyman is the likely beneficiary, as he seems to be the most organized and have the best boots-on-the-ground campaign team (as well as having been in the race the longest). Both Tree and Schneider will have to rely on spending money to buy help and name recognition. The other two, well, lots of people run for Congress for lots of reasons, and it's not always to actually win.
Stay tuned campers, it's about to get very interesting.
UPDATED: Today, Crain's blogger Greg Hinz dishes on several congressional races and implies that the 10th is not the red-hot pick-up prospect that the Dems planned for, largely due to the failure of the Democrats to recruit a top-level contender to battle Bob Dold. Hinz's take:
Mr. Obama's popularity also will be a factor in the north suburban 10th Congressional District.
GOP incumbent Bob Dold, a sometimes-moderate in an increasingly conservative Republican Party, on paper is vulnerable. But his stock has risen among GOP pros, and Democrats oddly were unable to recruit any of several state lawmakers who would have been instant favorites in the 10th.
We'll see who wins the Democratic primary: contenders Brad Schneider, Ilya Sheyman and John Tree all have a shot. Then we'll see if Mr. Dold really can convince voters he's been reborn in the mold of John Edward Porter or Mark Kirk, the district's prior two moderate GOP congressman.
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20 comments:
If Sheyman wins the primary, Dold wins the General. Sheyman is going to need Independents and some GOP to win the 10th. While he may energize the base, he doesn't share a good story with Independents and the GOP. As a 25 year old he hasn't worked, paid taxes, owned a home or put kids through school. He doesn't share in the values that it would take to put him in Congress. Now if Schneider or Tree pull an upset primary win, then there is a bigger challenge for Dold.
If there is one thing the Dems in Lake County have proved in the past....they are not unified. They won't focus on the most electable candidate. The DCCC perhaps realizes this and therefore focuses their efforts elsewhere.
"Hasn't owned a home"-neither has dold according to catwoman's research.
looking at these guys facebook pages is incredibly funny. Schneider's phone banking looks like it's his son's 12 year old play group. knowing the 10th dems they're probably all registered to vote-twice. Sheyman seems to be running his campaign out of a homeless shelter-is this legal-are those canned good for him? Tree has more pictures of cake than campaign activity-which isn't the sign of a serious candidate.
Hinz is not my favorite writer but he's been correct that dold has been an awkward congressman at best. He clearly is a quayle conservative painfully trying to fit into the suit of a kirk moderate in a democratic district. we'll see how well it turns out.
FOKLAES
The Dem crowd has Madamoiselle Anonymous (a.k.a. "Bob Dold Congressional Staffer #7") so worried she has to lie about Sheyman. And now Lil Fokker FokLies (Bob Goodman; I presume) has joined in the right wing lies too.
Either you crybabies get to whine that the guy worked for Moveon or you get to whine that he's never had a job but the two gripes are mutually exclusive.
And how old was radical right winger Paul Ryan when the cheeseheads first elected him to Congress?
Only 28? Yep. Never had a "real" job other than writing lies as a "activist" speechwriter for Congresscritter Republicans? Yep.
That's what I thought.
FOKLAES is not lying about anything. You guys wanted a bunch of scumbag state legislators who've spent the last decade in springfield royally #@#ing their neighbors and are now too old, fat, and tired to run for congress.
your 3 candidates are 4th tier losers, 2 of which are closet republicans with no experience or message other than I'm old and some consultant convinced me to do this so they'd get a paycheck.
Fan of King Louis Astaves the Ellen Slayer
Wow, FOKLAES, you weren't kidding about Schneider's phone bank pictures. I guess because the children making calls aren't getting paid, he isn't technically violating child labor laws. But what a lousy way to spend winter break if you are a 7th grader...
Inquiring minds want to know why FokLies the Lil Fokker and Madame Anonymous are so desperate to protect fraidy cat flip flopper Toxic Bob Dold that they have to resort to silly name calling.
Remember? Name calling isn't allowed on this blog anymore.
Anonymous sez so.
Besides. Even more pathetic lies don't help explain your earlier pathetic lies Lil Fokker.
Time for Repubs to come clean and admit they are out of ideas. At least that explains why you cats have nothing left but lies.
Geez, what is going on with these posts lately? Relax, folks, and take it down a notch. Maybe a couple of you do need to hit the egg nog or something close to it.
Bob Dold and his supporters are not fraidy cats or whiners, so get over it. Bob's voting record will stand the scrutiny of voters in this District who have shown they know how to get it right. All the nasty and mean spirited attacks on Mark Kirk over the years failed miserably because people saw right through what the 10th Dems and their leaders were spewing. Kirk prevailed. Dold will also prevail since the Dems running are not going to pull off an upset. Too bad that the commenter who must go to bed at night churning up new dumb things to say about Bob Dold doesn't know our Congressman or even want to talk about his actual value to the people of this District.
Anon, 9:38:
Don't despair. Election season is upon us and certain Democratic trolls have invaded the comments section here. Too bad because some other Democrats who occasionally post here have better communication skills.
Nothing to get alarmed about. When they say something sensible, feel free to respond. When they just troll, don't feed them by responding.
Louis G. Atsaves
Yo Anon 9:38 (a.k.a. "Bob Dold Congressional Staffer #4").
If you really think the voters like Doldy's right wing Tea Partyer vote record than why not promote his votes for killing Medicare
and for killing woman's healthcare right after saying he would stand up and protect it
and for redefining rape so women can't see a doctor after telling voters he was a moderate
and for killing American-made green jobs while voting to protect toxic oil pipes at every turn
and for signing the Grover Norquist No Taxes on the Rich right-wing pledge while turning around just this month and joining the elitist No Labels cult and declaring no politician should ever sign a pledge
and for even worse!
Instead you and Lil Fokker the FokLies run around whining and lying about the Dems because they are younger, stronger, smarter and ready to show the voters for what Bob Dold really is.
A whiny fraidy cat tea partyer in moderates clothing who says one thing to the moderate 10th District but lurches far to the right and does the opposite in the Halls of Congress where it matters.
The 10th doesn't have enough 1%er CEOS living in it and we middle class moderates are tired of the right wing lying and crybabying.
Yep, that'll work. Keep it up, pal.
Bob Dold's actual value to the middle class majority in the district = ZERO
Showing the voters flip-floppy Dold is as phony as his Anonymous peddlers = PRICELESS
"younger stronger smarter" Sheyman looks like he'd lose an arm wrestling competition to democat-stronger, not quite. Smarter-schneider was smart enough to give thousands of dollars to support mark kirk while y'all were breaking your backs to help put pup in office. HAH. Younger-one of your candidates has a staff that runs on juice boxes and shark bites, the other doesn't look a day over 6.
As for Dold, he's never really tried to hide the fact he's a dan quayle republican. He's a softer version of randy hultgren who wears john porter clothing when he thinks he needs to act all moderate. Seems to be working since your springfield hacks are too chicken to run against him.
"Middle class" Obama's went from broke to making $7.3 million the last 10 years while his government salary has been $45k/year as state senator and $176k a year as Us senator. His first cos -a ballet dancer made $20 million in 18 months as a banker, his 2nd cos-a john marshall law grad made $25 million last year as a bank vice chairman for a bank that just fired 580 employees yesterday. Meanwhile as middle class families flee chicago (200k left the last 10 years) your party has the city chasing the olympics and a nato/g8 summitt which will do nothing to improve jobs, education and inequality issues you losers profess to care so deeply about.
FOKLAES
Hit a little to close to home eh Lil Fokker? That's quite the non sequitor rant.
Remember Anonymous #6 1/2 and Louis.
Don't feed the drooling FokLies troll.
He has important immature bs to peddle in the elitist back alleys behind Lake Forest mansions.
Anon let's review
your president-failed
your senate #2 dick durbin-gang of 6-failure
your ex-gov-convicted felon-failure
your state legislature-failed
your redistricting plan-failed
your state legislators-failed
your decade long quest to defeat mark kirk-failed.
your stimulus plan-failure
your plan to clean up corruption in Illinois 9 years ago-failure
your ridiculous olympic bid-massive failure
your plan to privatize parking meters-failure
obamacare-failure
your "green jobs program"-failure
quite a record.
Fan of King Louis Astaves the Ellen Slayer
Hey Goodman FokLies Lil Fokker whatever your name is.
All us younger/ stronger/ smarter Dems must be getting under your skin.
Truth hurts eh? Chill out homey.
Last I checked OUR prez Obama gave all of us Americans lower taxes than YOUR epic failure of a prez called W. Even most of that Stimulus you whine about was tax cuts.
INTERESTING TO SEE A CON ARTIST CONSERVATIVE THINKS LOWER TAXES IS A FAILURE
File that memo away for future reference
"younger /stronger / smarter Dems"
Bwahahaha!
Ah, been a hard week at work (that's where you go to a j.o.b. by way of clarification for you Dems) and I deeply appreciate your attempt at lightening things up before the weekend!
Losers.
Dear Losers/Anonymous,
Tell me about it. Working through Christmas is no fun but us Winner Dems have to do it to keep funding the Repubs tax giveaways to Toxic Bob Dold's elitist buddies in the oil biz.
With Love and Affection,
Winner Dem
Winner Dems! My side hurts!!!
An asture politico once told me that dems get mean when they know they are losing. I think they are seeing the writing on the wall by the crass vile spewed-forth on this blog.
The crass vile being spewed on this blog?
You do know this blog is written by a Repub doncha?
LOL At least you admit this blog is crass and vile.
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