Over the past week or so, I attended a few campaign meetings for some of the folks I am helping out this cycle, and the question of the impact of the eventual GOP Presidential Nominee will have on local races is really starting to be asked, now that we have basically winnowed down a wide field to two front-runners, Gingrich and Romney (although did I see a poll somewhere that, egads, Ron Paul is still in the running?). Up to now, the large number of candidates made it a bit of a silly exercise to try to predict the impact our eventual nominee would have on local races, but we're getting to the point where that question is no longer quite so academic.
A few people I talked to over the weekend noted that the local Dems (a/k/a Terry Link) have packed every race they could with a candidate, any candidate. Some of these candidates reportedly don't have a lot of interest in the office; rather, they are doing it because they were asked (begged), and don't plan on spending a lot of time, energy or (especially, their own) money. They figure, quite literally, that 'if it's a great Obama year and he sweeps me into office, great. Otherwise, no big whoop.'
Given the lack of motivation on the part of such candidates, the respective top of the ticket becomes even more important. Columnists like Charles Krauthammer seems to be increasingly concerned that the two main candidates on the GOP side are so flawed, that Obama, despite his best efforts not to be re-elected, will nevertheless squeak by.
So, what does everyone think about the GOP ticket, who the eventual nominee will be, and how that will affect our local races?
UPDATED: From The Hill, here's kind of a frightening assessment of where things might head if Newt Gingrich continues to gather momentum.
UPDATED x2: Here is Gingrich's response (to Nancy Pelosi, from the above link). This could be getting quite interesting....
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4 comments:
When Illinois holds its primary, at least five republicans will be in the presidential race, Roemer, Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Bachmann. That will cause high turnout, affecting many races, in our area, including the state senate races, in the 30th and 31st Districts.
Yes, maybe, Phil, but just for the primary. I'm more concerned with the impact on the general election.
I think Obama would have to change his behavior pretty drastically to create enthusiasm for his candidacy among independents. Everyone is flawed, but the Republican nominee will not be particularly so. Local fiscally conservative candidates will likely benefit from the discussion that will be taking place about the state of the federal and state finances.
krauthammer is speaking from the perspective of a washington pundit. Team America is looking at politics from the perspective of an activist in a deeply blue state in a district more liberal than massachusettes. If it's anyone either than huntsman or romney dold is going to be royally screwed. Republicans are going to come out to vote regardless of who the gop nominee is because they hate obama, infrequent democrat voters though will stay home if it's romney or huntsman and moderates and independents will consider the gop if you get a liberal like huntsman or gingrich.
11 years ago kirk backed bush over mccain in the primary even though mccain was his number 1 national political fundraiser/endorser, if he had that choice in this district he'd have backed mccain because of how badly bush would have hurt him now in the district.
gingrich, bachmann, perry, paul, cain-if he'd kept his pants on will all be huge headaches for Illinois republicans if they are the nominee.
FOKLAES
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