Hi everyone - sorry I have been off the grid for the past week - a little thing called work interfered with blogging, but I'm sure we have all been keeping up with the happenings in the Tenth District. So far, though, the not-news appears to be that top Democratic primary opponents Ilya Sheyman and Brad Schneider are taking a lot of pokes at each other. Ho, hum. John Tree's supporters would have us believe that the Democratic voters in IL-10 are so appalled at actual politics that they will turn to him as the only real alternative.
My prediction: ain't gonna happen.
Tree's supporters, such as Ellen of the Tenth, would have us believe that Tree walks on water, and she highly criticizes the other candidates for many reasons, including putting up political signs on public parkways (which she calls "illegal and meaningless"), but I will tell you that I saw plenty of Tree signs up and down Milwaukee Avenue in Vernon Hills on my way back from Pilates early this morning, so don't believe that Tree is some kind of spanky new clean politician. Even Terry "signatures from dead people" Link is crying crocodile tears over the so-called negative campaigning, which is just too funny in itself.
I also have to say I was amused when I got a "breaking news alert" from The Patch over the weekend that retiring State Rep Karen May was supporting Brad Schneider because she didn't like Ilya Sheyman's tactics of pointing out all of Schneider's Republican contributions. Boo hoo. Like anyone care what lame duck Karen May thinks. If you want to complain about tactics, I still think Schneider way crossed the line in putting a picture of the President on one of his walk pieces, which a lot of people seem to agree with.
In any event, here's my prediction for the 10th:
Ilya Sheyman: 36%
Brad Schneider: 34%
John Tree: 21%
Vivek Bavda: 8%
Other: 1%
In other races:
Lake County States's Attorney: Too close to call. Mike Neirheim has won the sign war handily, and Louise Hayes surprisingly went pretty negative on both Bryan Winter and Neirheim. If Hayes hurt Neirheim by going negative but also hurt herself at the same time, maybe Winter pulls it out. This will be a squeeker.
Lake County Coroner: Dr. Howard Cooper went super-negative on Steve Newton for being fired by disgraced Democratic former coroner Dr. Richard Keller. Doubt that this was effective, but we'll see. TA looks for a Newton win.
Lake County Circuit Court Clerk: Despite a good base in central Lake County for Jerry Deitz, current Chief Deputy Keith Brin wins big over Deitz, shored up by Collin Corbett's able campaign team.
Lake County Recorder of Deeds: This is a bit of a sleeper race in an office that doesn't get much attention. Marty Blumenthal got the newspaper endorsements, but Bob Bednar has a bit more grass roots support, I think, so look for a Bednar win here.
Feel free to add your own predictions in comments.
And, yes, I know Mitt Romney was in town last night, but I could not make it. We had him at the Lake County Republican Federation Fall Dinner in 2010, so I already got my picture with him anyway. ;-) I believe Romney will win Illinois by about 10 points over Rick Santorum.
Adding... I get a personal shout-out from Ellen this morning, in a snarky way, as she relishes the notion of me or any other moderate Republican trying to make the case for Santorum as a great President. I have to say that Santorum scares me a bit, but I'd still take him over Obama-disaster.
Adding more... Over at Talking Points Memo, Ellen is taking a beating in the comments section, with people accusing her of being a Schneider shill. This is almost too funny. So far, she hasn't invited anyone to look at Team America to prove that she's a dyed-in-the-wool liberal and not a blue dog Schneider defender, but if she did, it might set all the moonbats over at TPM right.
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12 comments:
Work, shmork. You're just irrelevant.
Apparently, relevant enough for Ellen to still be concerned about what we're doing over here. We'll take it. The real irrelevancy will be the borrow like there's no tomorrow policies of the Obama administration. Tomorrow's here, kids. Time to pay up.
Glad you're back TA. I was beginning to worry. Romney Town Hall was terrific and was pleased to see a young man on the Romney team who worked as a volunteer on a Kirk campaign several years ago -while he was in grade school. Now a junior in HS! The Kirk team trains them right.
Heard Romney at that Federation dinner and I decided my dream team would be Romney/Pawlenty back then. Anyway, I'm looking for the candidate who has the best chance of beating the Manchurian Candidate in our White House. And I believe that man is Governor Romney.
B&B's Mom
I don't know the new 10th, but we learned with footlik that running to the right in the democratic primary is a bad idea. I don't think schneider's vote will show up. A lot of the vote he needs is out of town on spring break in aspen, vail ect and won't bother to vote.
Romney will win by a smaller margin than he wanted. I think kinzinger is gone, and that raja goof will also lose.
To think that 12 years ago the 10th dems had in lbg a woman who was that year literally the top recruit the dccc had and now they are at a kid younger than her son is a sign of how far they've fallen.
I also hate the new commenting form, sorry, please bring the old form back.
FOKLAES
Hi Foklaes - I too do not like the new comment format, but it's Blogger's latest attempt at "improvements". I will see if the old format is still available, but I'm not optimistic.
Hi TA,
It has been a long time since I commented here. Glad to see there is a lot of activity and I will start following again. I think your predictions are pretty accurate regarding the democratic primary, except that the margin between Sheyman and Schneider will be wider. I think Ilya will win by 5-7%.
And here is another prediction: Ilya Sheyman will become the next congressman from IL10. He will win easily over Dold. He is a charismatic candidate and one day he will be one of the major leaders of the democratic party.
Of course, I know you dont agree, but time will tell.
Cheers,
Blue Wind
Hi Blue Wind - nice to hear from you again. I noticed you have recently been over at Ellen's too. I daresay you may find you get a warmer reception here, given that it has to be Ellen's way 100% or the highway over there. We really don't care what the viewpoint you hold is, as long as you contribute to the dialogue.
Keep on commenting!
TA
TA - No prediction on Turelli/Neerhoff? I think it's gonna be Lauren.
I've followed the State's Attorney race pretty closely and I think Nerheim wins as Hayes going negative actually backfired, if my informal discussions locally hold true elsewhere. Also, she hates campaigning and has spent no time in the Western part of the county.
Winter is trying to run a campaign by political endorsements, and has actually been seen at a few train stations. Zero ground game though.
Thing about the winning the sign wars is that each of those signs in a yard is at least 1 vote.
Finish in my mind is:
1-Nerheim
2-Winter
3-Hayes
Should be a fun day nonetheless.
TA,
Prediction:
Schneider wins by 3%. I'll say this, if Sheyman wins, Dold gets re-elected. If Schneider wins, Dold loses (unfortunately).
Dold really is everything that is true about fair representation. I am center-right and feel he is an outstanding person and Congressman / candidate. If Dold lived in a red district or a red state, he would have a long career ahead of him.
Two years ago he (Dold) had Kirk at the top of the ticket. This year, hometown guy Obama will grace the top of the ticket -- and unfortunately, Kirk won't be able to campaign much (if at all) for Dold this fall.
Pulling for Sheyman today to give Dold the best shot come November.
It will be interesting to see if the new part of the 10th District skews the predictions. I don't Sheyman has much of ground game out there or much a following.
Anon11:08,
Despite the brutal, negative campaign against Turelli she wins and Dr. Friedman breaths a sigh of relief.
Thanks TA. I like your blog because you allow any opinion no matter how different it is from yours. And mine are certainly very very different than yours.
Anyway, we were both apparently wrong in our predictions and Schneider won.
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