Will Democrats Play Games In Seating Senator-Elect Mark Kirk for Lame-Duck Session?

We, and others, have been talking about the significance of the upcoming lame-duck session of Congress for months now, ever since it was becoming clear that the Democrats were going to be taking a drubbing in the 2010 mid-terms, potentially losing control of both the House and the Senate. We won the House, of course, and are looking forward to the elevation of Speaker Boehner (and the firing of Nancy Pelosi) and expected Majority Leader Eric Cantor. The Dems held on to the Senate, but lost a couple votes, including that of Roland Burris, who of course is to be replaced by Mark Kirk as a result of the court-ordered special election.

It appears that, unlike a few other states where 'replacement' elections were held, it may take a while for Mark Kirk to be sworn in and seated, due to the paperwork delays that are inherent in the Illinois system (recall that Burris' appointment by Blago was held up for some time when SOS Jesse White initially refused to sign off). Once the paperwork is in, the Dem-controlled Senate is in control of when Kirk actually is sworn in and seated. It's clear that Kirk will miss at least the start of the lame-duck session, which begins November 15th, so we will have to deal with almost-ex-Senator Burris for a few more weeks yet.

I was looking forward to a swearing-in on November 29th, which is the first session day after the deadline for getting the Illinois paperwork in. However, one source, namely Politico, is now projecting that it may not be until December 3rd or so before Kirk takes his seat. It's unclear why Politico thinks it may take that long, but I wonder if the Dems are planning to delay seating Senator Kirk (love saying that) due to his expected vote AGAINST many of the bills that have been expected to make an appearance in the lame-duck session, including but not limited to DADT and the so-called DREAM Act. There is also the little matter (cough, cough) of extending the Bush tax cuts, and the White House has signaled that it may be open to compromise. The notion of a $500,000 income ceiling, which may be on the table, is much better for many two-income families than $200,000 or $250,000.

One would expect that Kirk's seating would be less controversial than Scott Brown of Massachusetts, as the Dems no longer have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. But if the goal is to put enough votes on some of these bills to pass, and it appears to be close, I wonder if the temptation to hold off on seating a relaible "no" vote will be too much for the Dems to resist playing some games and delaying Kirk's rightful place in the Senate.

Random Thoughts and Reflections After the 2010 Midterms

In no particular order, here are some of the thoughts I've had in the past 48-odd hours since the election.

First, let's just all say it together: "Senator-Elect Mark Kirk." Wow, that sounds great! Let's not forget in all the news about the Quinn-Brady drama, Walsh-Bean, the Beer Summit, and other post-election intrigues, we will now have a U.S. Senator from Lake County, the first since Adlai Stevenson III, if he counts. Probably more important, we took back the U.S. Senate seat that was formerly occupied by now-President Barack Obama, and more recently, Blago-appointee Roland Burris.

Mark is not especially tall, so I wonder if the President will invite Mark onto the White House basketball court for one of his famous pick-up games, and give him a little street lesson on what happens when you beat the President's basketball buddy in a U.S. Senate race. ;-) I suppose if Obama really misses Alexi that much, he can give Alexi a job in his administration somewhere, which I bet is a good possibility, since Alexi needs something to do, and to get some age on him, before he comes back to make a run for something else here in Illinois.

I've talked to some of Kirk's staff in the last day or so, and it appears to me that they have basically not even had time to process all this, as they instead are concerned with logistics for the swearing-in, and what the upcoming lame-duck session of Congress is going to look like. For the first time in seven years, I believe Mark is planning a few days away, though, so good for him.

What else? Well, there's the big win by Bob Dold over three-time loser Dan Seals. And yes, despite some protestations from the usual quarters, he is a L-O-S-E-R. I wonder if the DCCC will ask for the $8 million+ in campaign cash that they have wasted on Seals over the past three cycles. Believe it or not, I read some speculation about whether Seals would consider yet another race for Congress in 2012. Sometimes you just have shake your head over these things.

Bob Dold himself credits his win on reaching out to the people of the 10th District, and I couldn't agree more. As we've said, some people thought his campaign bus was a stupid idea, but Dold was out in the District making as many direct voter contacts as possible, while Seals was.... well, during the last two weeks of the election cycle, I had no idea what Seals was doing. As we've seen here and on other blogs, even many Dems resoundingly criticize Seals' campaign strategy and implementation, so we're not alone on this. I should also note that my nine-year old still insists on watching the "Seals for Dold" video, which I have to say I find funnier each and every time I see it. For real, Broheim?

Speaking of the Kirk-Dold interplay, Russell Lissau at the Daily Herald takes a look at the odd circumstance that, since Mark Kirk will be sworn in early to the U.S. Senate as a result of the "special" election to replace Roland Burris until the rest of the new Senate is sworn in this coming January, there will be a temporary vacancy in the 10th District. But my friend John McGovern (who came in to work for Dold in the last months of the campaign) explains in the article that there is no provision for fulling such temporary vacancies by appointment, as there is with the Senate.

Moving on, the biggest disappointment in this election cycle for me (and I would argue, for the State of Illinois) is the failure of the House Republicans to make any meaningful inroads towards stripping Speaker Mike Madigan of his majority. Not only will Madigan and the Dems control the remap process, which spells bad news for the GOP, but more importantly, the people of this State have seen fit to send back the very same folks who drove us into a $13 billion budget hole. We simply can't keep kicking the can down the road and expect to dig our way out of this mess. Already, another $4 billion in borrowing is being discussed in Springfield as the way to temporarily plug the budget gap. But what next? By the way, we'll be watching all of the Dems that won election, such as Carol Sente, Karen May, Daniel Biss, etc., to see if they make good on their promises to be "independent" and vote against party leadership when it is in the interests of their districts. WE WILL BE WATCHING YOU. For better or for worse, it's not a heckuva long time until they will be up for re-election.

We did better in the State Senate, of course, where Suzi Schmidt trounced Michael Bond. What goes around, comes around, buddy. Whaddya think Geo thinks about you now? The rest of us will keep an eye on Bond to see where he lands in a state-appointment and see your tax dollars continue to pad the pockets of Democratic politicians. Our eyes will also turn to the Lake County Board to see who is appointed to fill Suzi Schmidt's spot (my guess is Dan Venturi, Lake Villa Supervisor, but we'll see), and how the leadership positions on the Board are jostled around a bit after Suzi's departure to the General Assembly. I'm hoping for David Stolman for County Board Chairman, but we'll see.

I've droned on long enough, but I also wanted to mention the BIGGEST surprise of the election (although we'll give Bill Brady's loss an honorable mention, since it seemed to go against the majority of the polling), which is, of course, Joe Walsh's slim victory over Congresswoman Melissa Bean in the 8th District. Even though some polling showed Walsh ahead, really no one except he, his wife, and his die-hard supporters believed he had a chance. While his lead appears to be narrowing somewhat as late-arriving ballots are counted, he still appears to be holding on. This one isn't over by a longshot, however - remember how Al Franken basically stole the election in Minnesota through the recount process, and it's not impossible the same could happen here, if the GOP isn't careful.

Kirk Meets Alexi for Beer Summit

My friend Jeff Berman, having dealt handily with his fellow trustee Lisa Stone in Buffalo Grove yesterday in its recall vote, showed up to the Billy Goat Tavern tonight to see if his services were needed to deal with defeated U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, but it appears that Alexi and Senator-elect Mark Kirk were getting along swimmingly.

We need to get Jeff a better cell phone camera, but here are his photos from the field:

Are we witnessing a whole new chapter in Illinois politics, or were they just both thirsty?

I Guess the Catlady Has Sung; Mark Kirk, Bob Dold Winners (UPDATED)

Just got back from the Mark Kirk event in Wheeling, and I want to congratulate him (yes, let's call him Senator-elect) and Congressman-elect Robert Dold. Above photo, Mark waits 'backstage' to give his acceptance speech. Below, a glimpse of the high-tech Kirk for Senate technology center, or as we like to call it, the "war room," where we monitored the incoming election results, and where Mark took the concession call from Alexi Giannoulias.

Alexi Giannoulias did give a classy concession speech, but Mark gave an even better acceptance speech. The really big loser: President Obama, who did absolutely everything he could to save his old senate seat, but still fell embarrassingly short. C'est la vie. Also, a shout-out to the rest of the new Illinois Congressmen, including, perhaps, Joe Walsh, if his lead holds up.

Sheriff Mark Curran, who handily won re-election, gave me a ride home. Thanks Mark! Also, congrats to our other country-wide winners, Willard Helander, Bob Skidmore, and Roycelee Wood.

Also congrats to Lauren Turelli, Hamilton Chang and especially Dan Sugrue who ran hard races against the lies and money of Michael Madigan.

Congrats to our Lake County county board members, all of whom I believe held on for re-election, Suzi Schmidt, who pasted Michael Bond, and our State Rep. incumbents, Sandy Cole, Ed Sullivan, Jr., Sid Mathias, and JoAnn Osmond.

I guess Dan Seals is now a three-time loser. In some states that means prison for life, but in Illinois, that most likely means that Mike Madigan will just give him a no-show state job. Ain't life grand?

More in the morning. ;-)

UPDATED 11/3/10 10:30 a.m.: Seals Finally Concedes: I didn't realize it last night, but Dan Seals didn't concede until just this morning. I think our prediction was pretty much on the money on that race. Don't go away angry, Dan, just go away.

It's Not Over Until the Catlady Sings, and Other Predictions (PLUS ELECTION MORNING UPDATE)

Our love/hate relationship with Ellen of the Tenth may be coming to an end, as her post tonight sounds an awful lot like a swan song of sorts. We're flattered, however, that she appears to have saved her last breath to hiss (or was that her cat) in our direction with a link back to Team America.

Well, Ellen, if it seems that we're the last blog standing, all I can do is wish you well, and remind you that the entire reason this Blog exists is that you kicked me off yours, when all I wanted to do was engage in debating the issues. That was obviously too much for you to handle. And, I might add, considering how things have worked out for Dan Seals the last two cycles, probably something you've regretted quite often since then.

In any case, unlike Ellen, I don't mind doing predictions. I think it's fun to see how things turn out. Illinois may still have some surprises for us, to be sure. As Congressman Mark Kirk said tonight, after all, this is the state that twice elected Rod Blagojevich. And, frankly, the thought of the SEIU army with pockets full of walking around money supplied by the DNC does give me some angst.

So, anyway, here goes:

(all predictions are percentage points winner over the next best runner-up, since predicting percentages for all candidates for multi-party races are just too hard)

Governor: Bill Brady 4 pts over Pat Quinn
U.S. Senate: Mark Kirk 3 pts over Alexi Giannoulias
10th District Congressional: Bob Dold 1 pt over Dan Seals
8th District Congressional: Melissa Bean 5 pts over Joe Walsh
31st State Senate: Suzi Schmidt 8 pts over Michael Bond
59th Legislative: Dan Sugrue 2 pts over Carol Sente
58th Legislative: Lauren Turelli 1 pt over Karen May

There are obviously more races, so if you feel like adding more, or giving your own predictions, have at it.

UPDATED ELECTION DAY 9:50 a.m.:

I spent three hours this morning at my polling place at Lambs Farm in Lake County holding a Kirk-Dold-Sugrue sign. Generally very positive reactions from people going in to vote. Made friends with a nice young lady who is a Carol Sente legislative aide (she got the day off and was paid to hand out literature) but she had difficulty getting anyone to take a flyer. The flyer itself had just Carol Sente’s name and Lisa Madigan’s name on it - nothing about positions, etc.

The Sente worker was nice enough to hold our camera when Dan Sugrue came up with his family (Dan is on the right of the sign, I'm on the left) to cast their votes:


I got her name, since she seemed pretty conservative for a Democrat, and she may be needing a job tomorrow. Dan Sugrue could probably use an experienced legislative aide.

As far as turnout goes, there was a line at 6:00. No Dems are standing in a line to vote in this election on a dark, chilly morning. In fact, if you don’t live in Chicago and aren’t getting dragged kicking and screaming to the polls (or being otherwise ‘encourged’ by those precinct captains) I wonder how many Dems are going to show at all.

Independents will decide this election, which is what I told the Daily Herald:

“We know the battleground in all these races will be independents,” said Larry Falbe, a Mettawa village trustee and Republican political blogger. “I think there are a lot of people upset and don’t know where to turn.”

If the trends hold up, those Independents will be breaking heavily for the GOP. And that's the election, folks.

Rasmussen Predicts Mark Kirk Victory Over Alexi Giannoulias

Scott Rasmussen is predicting that Congressman Mark Kirk will win tomorrow over State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias:



h/t Illinois Review.

Mark Kirk Leads Alexi Giannoulias 46% to 42% in PPP Poll; Maybe Send In Clinton to Persuade LeAlan Jones to Drop Out?; Other Polls

A new poll out by Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Congressman Mark Kirk up over State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, by 46% to 42%. This trend has been consistent among pretty much every poll that's been taken over the past two weeks. The detail on the poll shows that PPP surveyed 814 likely Illinois voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. That suggests that the Barackstar's third visit to Illinois on behalf of Alexi just hasn't been enough to stem the GOP tide against the Dem nominee, even in Obama's adopted hometown.

The pollster points out that:

The presence of the third party candidates in the race seems to really be hurting Giannoulias. In a straight head to head between him and Kirk he trails by only a 46-45 margin. But a fair number of progressive voters who don't like Giannoulias but can't bring themselves to vote for Kirk are supporting the minor candidates in the contest.

That means that third-party candidate LeAlan Jones is hurting Giannoulias more than Libertarian Mike Labno is hurting Kirk. Likely, the voters are seeing through the attempts of the Dems to push Labno as a "conservative" alternative to Kirk, which isn't too hard to do, since the three recent mail pieces promoting Labno were all sent by the Lake County Democratic Party (Terry Link claims no knowledge of this mailing, but that's a post for another day).

The word I'm looking for to describe Alexi's campaign is... desperate. So, perhaps former President Bill Clinton will be returning to Illinois to try to encourage LeAlan Jones to drop out, just like Clinton tried to do to Kendrick Meek, the Democratic candidate for Senate down in Florida, who is losing to both Republican Marco Rubio and now-Independent Charlie Crist. Of course, I'm only joking about that idea, since it ain't gonna help the day before the election. No, if the Obamastar's final last-ditch act of gracing Chicago with his presence to the people in a (finally) free forum wasn't enough to seal the deal for Alexi, he's pretty much toast.

From Fox News:

Obama’s Senate Seat Leaning GOP

Republican chances to capture the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama are improving markedly in final days of the election.

Rep. Mark Kirk doubled his 2-point lead in last week’s Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, and now leads Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent.

Giannoulias continues to suffer from Democratic defections to Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, who drew 6 percent support, including 8 percent of Democrats. [snip]

Kirk’s improving performance in the Senate race may spring from greater voter confidence in his character. Kirk, who was found to have embellished the list of military citations he received, was seen as honest and trustworthy by only 18 percent a month ago. That number has nearly doubled and is now at 34 percent, even with the percent who don’t trust him.

Giannoulias, meanwhile, has gone the other direction. Amid persistent questions about his family’s failed bank and its connections to organized crime, the percentage of voters who distrust Giannoulias raised 11 points in a month to 45 percent.

Reliably liberal NPR covers the Scott Brown event over the weekend for Kirk and Brady. Listen here.

In other polling: We all know now that Mike Madigan is pulling out all the stops in an attempt to hold onto his Illinois House majority and his position as speaker. Despite the hundreds of thousands of dollar he's poured in to the Sugrue-Sente matchup in IL-59, the IMA has Republican contender Dan Sugrue up by almost two points over Democratic Appointee Carol Sente, and Hamilton Chang is closing fast on Dem. Daniel Biss in the race to succeed State Rep. Beth Coulson. Lauren Turelli may be catching up on legislative fossil Karen May, too. State Senate candidate and Lake County Board Chairwoman Suzi Schmidt is crushing freshman State Senator Michael Bond by more than 10 points. Wow.