Monday, November 1, 2010
It's Not Over Until the Catlady Sings, and Other Predictions (PLUS ELECTION MORNING UPDATE)
Our love/hate relationship with Ellen of the Tenth may be coming to an end, as her post tonight sounds an awful lot like a swan song of sorts. We're flattered, however, that she appears to have saved her last breath to hiss (or was that her cat) in our direction with a link back to Team America.
Well, Ellen, if it seems that we're the last blog standing, all I can do is wish you well, and remind you that the entire reason this Blog exists is that you kicked me off yours, when all I wanted to do was engage in debating the issues. That was obviously too much for you to handle. And, I might add, considering how things have worked out for Dan Seals the last two cycles, probably something you've regretted quite often since then.
In any case, unlike Ellen, I don't mind doing predictions. I think it's fun to see how things turn out. Illinois may still have some surprises for us, to be sure. As Congressman Mark Kirk said tonight, after all, this is the state that twice elected Rod Blagojevich. And, frankly, the thought of the SEIU army with pockets full of walking around money supplied by the DNC does give me some angst.
So, anyway, here goes:
(all predictions are percentage points winner over the next best runner-up, since predicting percentages for all candidates for multi-party races are just too hard)
Governor: Bill Brady 4 pts over Pat Quinn
U.S. Senate: Mark Kirk 3 pts over Alexi Giannoulias
10th District Congressional: Bob Dold 1 pt over Dan Seals
8th District Congressional: Melissa Bean 5 pts over Joe Walsh
31st State Senate: Suzi Schmidt 8 pts over Michael Bond
59th Legislative: Dan Sugrue 2 pts over Carol Sente
58th Legislative: Lauren Turelli 1 pt over Karen May
There are obviously more races, so if you feel like adding more, or giving your own predictions, have at it.
UPDATED ELECTION DAY 9:50 a.m.:
I spent three hours this morning at my polling place at Lambs Farm in Lake County holding a Kirk-Dold-Sugrue sign. Generally very positive reactions from people going in to vote. Made friends with a nice young lady who is a Carol Sente legislative aide (she got the day off and was paid to hand out literature) but she had difficulty getting anyone to take a flyer. The flyer itself had just Carol Sente’s name and Lisa Madigan’s name on it - nothing about positions, etc.
The Sente worker was nice enough to hold our camera when Dan Sugrue came up with his family (Dan is on the right of the sign, I'm on the left) to cast their votes:
I got her name, since she seemed pretty conservative for a Democrat, and she may be needing a job tomorrow. Dan Sugrue could probably use an experienced legislative aide.
As far as turnout goes, there was a line at 6:00. No Dems are standing in a line to vote in this election on a dark, chilly morning. In fact, if you don’t live in Chicago and aren’t getting dragged kicking and screaming to the polls (or being otherwise ‘encourged’ by those precinct captains) I wonder how many Dems are going to show at all.
Independents will decide this election, which is what I told the Daily Herald:
“We know the battleground in all these races will be independents,” said Larry Falbe, a Mettawa village trustee and Republican political blogger. “I think there are a lot of people upset and don’t know where to turn.”
If the trends hold up, those Independents will be breaking heavily for the GOP. And that's the election, folks.