Monday, November 1, 2010

It's Not Over Until the Catlady Sings, and Other Predictions (PLUS ELECTION MORNING UPDATE)


Our love/hate relationship with Ellen of the Tenth may be coming to an end, as her post tonight sounds an awful lot like a swan song of sorts. We're flattered, however, that she appears to have saved her last breath to hiss (or was that her cat) in our direction with a link back to Team America.

Well, Ellen, if it seems that we're the last blog standing, all I can do is wish you well, and remind you that the entire reason this Blog exists is that you kicked me off yours, when all I wanted to do was engage in debating the issues. That was obviously too much for you to handle. And, I might add, considering how things have worked out for Dan Seals the last two cycles, probably something you've regretted quite often since then.

In any case, unlike Ellen, I don't mind doing predictions. I think it's fun to see how things turn out. Illinois may still have some surprises for us, to be sure. As Congressman Mark Kirk said tonight, after all, this is the state that twice elected Rod Blagojevich. And, frankly, the thought of the SEIU army with pockets full of walking around money supplied by the DNC does give me some angst.

So, anyway, here goes:

(all predictions are percentage points winner over the next best runner-up, since predicting percentages for all candidates for multi-party races are just too hard)

Governor: Bill Brady 4 pts over Pat Quinn
U.S. Senate: Mark Kirk 3 pts over Alexi Giannoulias
10th District Congressional: Bob Dold 1 pt over Dan Seals
8th District Congressional: Melissa Bean 5 pts over Joe Walsh
31st State Senate: Suzi Schmidt 8 pts over Michael Bond
59th Legislative: Dan Sugrue 2 pts over Carol Sente
58th Legislative: Lauren Turelli 1 pt over Karen May

There are obviously more races, so if you feel like adding more, or giving your own predictions, have at it.

UPDATED ELECTION DAY 9:50 a.m.:

I spent three hours this morning at my polling place at Lambs Farm in Lake County holding a Kirk-Dold-Sugrue sign. Generally very positive reactions from people going in to vote. Made friends with a nice young lady who is a Carol Sente legislative aide (she got the day off and was paid to hand out literature) but she had difficulty getting anyone to take a flyer. The flyer itself had just Carol Sente’s name and Lisa Madigan’s name on it - nothing about positions, etc.

The Sente worker was nice enough to hold our camera when Dan Sugrue came up with his family (Dan is on the right of the sign, I'm on the left) to cast their votes:


I got her name, since she seemed pretty conservative for a Democrat, and she may be needing a job tomorrow. Dan Sugrue could probably use an experienced legislative aide.

As far as turnout goes, there was a line at 6:00. No Dems are standing in a line to vote in this election on a dark, chilly morning. In fact, if you don’t live in Chicago and aren’t getting dragged kicking and screaming to the polls (or being otherwise ‘encourged’ by those precinct captains) I wonder how many Dems are going to show at all.

Independents will decide this election, which is what I told the Daily Herald:

“We know the battleground in all these races will be independents,” said Larry Falbe, a Mettawa village trustee and Republican political blogger. “I think there are a lot of people upset and don’t know where to turn.”

If the trends hold up, those Independents will be breaking heavily for the GOP. And that's the election, folks.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Governor: Bill Brady 8 pts over Pat Quinn

U.S. Senate: Alexi Giannoulias 2 pts over Mark Kirk (if South Side Dems go to the polls and vote)

10th District Congressional: Dan Seals 9 pts over Bob Dold

8th District Congressional: Melissa Bean 9 pts over Joe Walsh

Anonymous said...

Pretty sad that Ellen rails against the political system when it produces undesirable outcomes for her worldview; especially when you consider she works for Obama's campaign arm at the DNC as a writer. Kind of like indicting yourself for a crime. Very silly behavior.

Anonymous said...

Come on Larry, there can't honestly be any way that you think Bingo Bob Dolt is going to win tomorrow. The man has ran a trainwreck of a campaign and is clearly not ready to be a member of Congress. His final mailer and argument was playing defense on his pro-life positions and the support he received from IL Fed for Right to Life and the Eagle Forum.

Here's my predictions which, unlike yours, will put some partisan bias aside for the sake of honesty. These are based on the pulse I have gotten at home and what I have heard from friends in various campaigns:

NATIONAL
-Seals 4.5 points over Dolt
-Giannoulias 1 pt over Kirk (expect a re-count, provisional ballots counted and a lawsuit)
-Brady 6 points over Quinn
-Bean 7 points over Walsh
-Halvorson loses
-Hare loses by just about 1 point (expect a recount/provisional ballots, I've heard his campaign has totally dropped the ball thus far)
-Foster wins

LOCAL
-Karen May beats tea partier Turelli
-Sugrue and Sente is too close to call, expect them to go to provisional ballots
-Lawlor over Hoogland, which is a shame because she is great and he's Kirk's whipping boy

Oh, and for the cherry on top, Buffalo Grove recalls Trustee Lisa Stone, making her the first municipal office in Illinois almost 200 year history to be removed from office via recall, 72% voting in favor to 28% against.

Until Next Time,
A Concerned Colonial

Anonymous said...

Turelli is patently not a Tea Partier. I volunteered in her office for the entire summer, spoke with her about issues daily, and know this to be a blatant lie.

My predictions:

Kirk and Brady squeak through with narrow wins
Seals, sadly, defeats Dold by several points
Bean hangs on by a respectable, though tight, margin
Foster, Hare, and Halvorson drown in the GOP wave
Karen May, thanks to the incumbency advantage and an electorate that was too tired of contrast ads to look squarely at her record, will hold the 58th.

Blue Wind said...

TA,
Good and classy post about Ellen. Here are my predictions:

SENATE: Giannoulias by 0.3% over Kirk (goes to recount and Giannoulias prevails by a few hundred votes). Reason? The polls have underestimated a few key factors in IL.

IL-10: Seals by 4 points over Dolt.

Governor: Brady by 2 points over Quinn.

Foster loses big (very unfortunately).

NATIONAL: Sarah Palin becomes officially the spiritual leader of the republican party after wins in Alaska, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida and a surprising strong show by O'Donnel in DE (who loses only by 5 points).

Ok, I better go to vote now. Cheers.

Blue Wind said...

Oh, and one more. Karen May will win by 10 points. Easily.

Anonymous said...

Dold will get 52.8 percent.
Kirk will get 53.4 percent
Brady will walk away with it.

-the oracle

Anonymous said...

Kirk wins convincingly by 6 points. Oracle gets hammered...news at 10pm.

Anonymous said...

Just as in the primary, you folks are focusing on the hare, while the tortoise plugs away, shaking thousands of hands while touring the district in his bus.

You need to get out more.

Dold will win.

A. Bees said...

Ok, first, Blue, you posted at 5:57 AM that you needed to go and vote....you are aware that you don't get extra credit for being the first person to vote... oh wait, this is Chicagoland and there is a reason why Mark Kirk needs so many poll watchers.

Predictions:
Kirk wins by 3
Brady by 5
Topinka by 12
Rutherford by 5
Madigan by 14
White by 12
Seals by 1 (I really hope I am wrong on this one, just a gut pick)
Bean by 10
Schmidt by 6

Anonymous said...

Since when did Turelli become a tea partier? Of course, they have been trying to label Dold the same way.

That's the fundamental problem with Democrats, they didn't listen when they had total control in Washington and Springfield, and now they are left with trying to call their opponents crazy tea partiers after Democrats did the craziest thing one can do in a democracy: fail to REPRESENT those who elected you and chose to DICTATE to those who elected you.

A legacy of broken "hope" and "change," broken governments and huge ethical lapses.

By their behavior at this late date, Democrats still aren't listening. Their loss(es), not ours.

Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

I concur with Mr. Bees predictions.

Paul, just this guy, you know? said...

@Louis G. Atsaves -

You're 100% right. I just hope that when the GOP takes the majority, our elected officials won't make the same mistake.

Anonymous said...

As far as catlady quitting, let's give her, crazy carl and loony lee their dues. They've given it a real fight for 7 years. They're awful human beings, but the woman actually cares about her crazy ideas and isn't afraid to make an ellen out of herself.

As for this blog and the organization it represents. For a generation this state has been dominated by democrats. For a decade this seat has been targeted more times than any other office in the state at any level by state,local and national forces, and the 10th gop has held. A generation of democrat operatives have salivated over this seat only to wake up wednesday the first of november wondering how it got away.

2 years ago this state was the political capital of the opposition with the entire world watching and planning the cremation of the gop. tonight for the first time in american history the president will lose his senate seat.

Think about that for a second. First time in american history a president will lose his own senate seat in the following election.

That my friends is called making history and it's a testament to the character, energy and smarts of people like team america, mrs. team america, king louis astaves the ellen alexi and pup slayer, baxters mom, conservative vet, a bees, thunder dan segrue and the rest of the cast of characters who have made it possible.

Blue, concerned colonial, you can whine and groan all you want, the fact is this district is numerically now as liberal as new york and massachusettes and has voted republican for congress now for 15 straight cycles and the 10th gop deserves its praise. Those states have voted gop once. It's an incredible stat.

FOKLAEAPS

A. Bees said...

Currently the Tribune is reporting that they are seeing about average mid-term election turnout. With a motivated Republican voting base, this looks pretty good for us.... hope everyone keeps turning out the vote!

Anonymous said...

I'd like to know what the expected turnout for princess nudelman will be. Anyone?

FOKLEAPS

A. Bees said...

Best reference of the day, FOKLEAPS! Big props for that one!

Alex said...

Voted in Chicago today, no huge lines, which is good ofcourse. Early exit polls leaked on Huffington show kirk leading 6.

We take 49 Senate seats but if we can upset in Washington we get to an even 50. Not necessarily a bad thing. It would be a shame if Republicans allow themselves to be labeled as "obstructionist" like Clinton did...only difference is Clinton moved to the middle, nothing suggests Obama will do the same. Repeal of healthcare is largely symbolic as Obama is going to be stubborn and veto it...hopefully Republicans can show Obama is and always was the obstructionist to the majority of American stances/values; preference of private sector vs. public control in particular.

Alex said...

Edit: Rather i went with my family to vote, all Kirk. I voted early

Anonymous said...

Surprised no one has used that ancient joke yet:

"I can predict the election results before it even starts!"

0-0!

Good luck to all the candidates tonight. Best wishes to all the volunteers who worked so hard for them. And I mean all political parties.

Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

Oracle feeling pretty good right now.