Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Post 2010 Elections, Lake County, IL "Still Republican"

In the wake of last week elections, Pioneer Press has a nice set of articles recapping the local results, focusing on the congressional, county and state general assembly races.

First, Lynne Stiefel takes a look at the Dold-Seals matchup. Of particular interest in this article is the impact that voter turnout had in the 10th, where Waukegan Township, a Dem stronghold, had almost 10,000 voters less than in the Obama run in 2008, and Warren Township, which had 1,600 fewer voters turn out, but Dold increased his percentage win over Seals by about 5 points more than Mark Kirk in the last cycle.

Next, John Roszkowski takes a broader look at the county as a whole and interviewed the respective Democratic and Republican County Chairmen, Terry Link and Bob Cook.

"Everything went really well. Lake County remains a Republican county," said Lake County Republican Party Chairman Bob Cook.

The Joe Walsh-Melissa Bean race doesn't seem like it's going to be decided for another week, but Walsh' campaign seems pretty confident that he will prevail, so add his unlooked-for win over 3-termer Bean as another big victory for the GOP.

The Pioneer Press also interviewed our old friend Lauren Beth Gash of the Tenth Congressional Democrats, who rationalized Dan Seals' THIRD loss for the 10th Congressional District seat as follows:

"There's no question that this was a wave election but I still very much hoped Dan Seals would be elected," she said. "I think it probably shows there's nothing else Dan Seals could have done to win in this national climate."

OK, so Seals could not win in a landslide year for Dems (2008) and he couldn't win in a landslide year for Republicans (2010). Basically, the guy just can't win... which is what we've been saying for years.


A. Bees said...

I find it quite funny when a candidate runs for the same position after losing twice. By the third time that candidate is a known quantity. People have made a decision on where they stand on that particular candidate and it is nearly impossible to change their mind. This is particularly true in the 10th where the voters are generally highly educated and pay attention when they vote.

A. Bees said...

I should also mention that I don't think Warren Township is a good one for this comparison, because about 80 percent of Warren is in the 8th district.

Anonymous said...

Correct, A. Bees on the Warren Twp. issue since it's heavily in the 8th and not in the 10th. As for Seals, one thing is clear. He and the 10th Dems thought this was their election and did damn near nothing to earn the vote. While Seals was working out in his health club for a couple of hours each day, Bob Dold and his team were covering every inch of the district in an effort to get to know the district and be known in the district. Arrogance on the part of Gash and her cronies has never been more apparent. Seals is a loser. Let's hope he has learned the lesson and never runs in this district again.
The 10th Dems need to have learned an important lesson. I think it's about truth. The more they viciously attacked Bob Dold with outright lies the more Bob picked up support in the district. Gash and her crew simply remain out of touch and clueless.
Bob Dold will go to Washington with an agenda that's sorely needed for the voters who had the smarts to vote for him. I have all the trust in the world that he'll be a star.

Anonymous said...

after deep thought and reflection.

-no lauren or lucky mom or LBG or failed congressional candidate. It's not the climate it's just that the tenth is just not that into you, or any organization that hussein freeman is part of.

-I think lake county is a swing county and bellweather for the state. My theory on why there is a gop congressman and democrat legislators in the 10th is that at the federal level the dccc is less competent but that you also have national security issues (which favor good guys) in the mix so its not just a straight taxes vs social programs debate.

-2012 is a long way from now and its awfully hard to predict what will happen. Dold will have to take some tough tough votes and its important to remember that mccain was the only republican who's been asked to campaign in the 10th consistently and he got beat by 23 points. I could see someone like palin or pawlenty getting in the low 30's.

-the biggest net positives I see coming off this election are that the gop is not a social issues focused party anymore, which helps in this state and for the first time in a generation there is no george ryan or george bush for democrats to demagogue republicans with in Illinois. Lots of people call the tea party right wing zealots, but they've moved the party to a fiscal footing and that's much better for local republicans and much more appealing to independents.

Fan of King Louis Astaves the Ellen Slayer