If there is one way to tick off a "Green" Party supporter (or candidate), suggest that a vote for them is a "wasted" vote. Now that David Kalbfleisch, the Green Party candidate for the 10th District has finally officially filed, it will be a three-way race between Republican incumbent Mark Kirk, Kalbfleisch and the winner of the Democratic primary, which is between Jay Footlik or Dan Seals. The Chicago Sun-Times seems to be paying attention to the role of the Green candidates as possible spoilers for Dems, since the Green message (generally anti-war, pro environment) tends to pull from the voter profile of Dems more so than Republicans. Not many other media sources seem to be interested in talking about the Green effect, however.
As noted in the Sun-Times article, "If that [Green party candidates siphoning off Democratic votes] does happen, in most cases I'm not going to lose any sleep over it because most of the Democrats we're dealing with here are . . . hard to distinguish from Republicans," said Rich Whitney, whose 10 percent showing as a Green candidate for governor last year won the party its current ballot status as an established party. "We're not in races to spoil. We're in them to win. I think some of these races are going to be winnable."
It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the Green Party will have in the 10th District. My prediction is that it will hurt the Dems, as some dissatisfied Dems will go Green, and many Dems will further annoy and upset Green voters by suggesting that such votes will be a "waste" in the face of their obsession to finally knock Mark Kirk out of office. Between the Jay and Dan supporters trying to cut each others' throats, and the Greens out to prove themselves, it seems like the anti-Kirk vote out there is going to be seriously split, which enhances the odds that Kirk will in fact have an easier election this time around.
No one I know gives the Green party a serious chance, although people like Whitney obviously want people to take them seriously, and vigorously dispute that notion. Who has more to worry about from the Greens? Think there will be a three-way general election debate at some point? Other thoughts?
UPDATED: I just sauntered over to Dan Seal's official campaign website, wondering if and when he was ever going to: #1) update the site; #2) actually put in something of substance; #3) provide a link to his new job at The Point website to help with his day job. Okay, so I was just kidding about point 3. But, Footlik has a large amount of content on his site, and even the Green Guy has more on his site than does Seals, who is supposedly the seasoned candidate among the also-rans. Does anyone else out there get the impression that Seals is not taking this seriously?
UPDATED x2: I also just visited The Point website to see if anyone had gotten around to telling them that Dan Seals had officially filed in the Tenth District (never mind that he officially declared his candidacy months before The Point website even went up), and they might want to think about: #1) updating their website to reflect the fact he is not merely a "former" candidate for congress; and #2) whether this is reflective of The Point's stated position as a non-partisan organization. The website actually does have a new look on the main page, which is an improvement, but the "about us" page that sets forth Seals' credentials remains unchanged... Somebody from the Seals camp may want to give those guys at The Point a call just in case anybody ever notices... like, say, in time to make it a campaign issue...?
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29 comments:
TA, I agree with most of what you're saying. I do NOT agree that this cycle will be easier for Congressman Kirk. Just the opposite. The Green Party guy will most likely take away from Seals and Footlik, NOT our Congressman. To that extent it's good for "our side". I don't see Mr. Kalbfleish getting more than 5% of the vote in February. We have yet to see the battle royale between the two main contenders on the Democrat side. It's going to be fun if it ever gets started. I'm sure that Seals has a strategy. We already are seeing the Footlik strategy. We know the debates are in January, but very close to the Primary. My hunch is that Dan will do one, not both. He'll back out just as he did in the last cycle. It takes money to get a message out to voters. I haven't seen an FEC filing for the Green Party guy which means he has no money at this point in time. He has under $5,000. Name recognition for him is a continuing problem and without money it becomes impossible to compete. The next couple of months will be more than interesting!
NLT- I guess what I mean is that I expect that Kirk will do better against the Dem opponent at the end of the day than the results of the last election. But, that certainly is not to imply it's not going to be a battle royale the every step of the way. The challenger will be well-funded and Kirk learned his lesson last time; he won't be caught again so easily.
I think the addition of Dave Kalbfleish is great for this race. I respect his reasons for running. Kirk has a commitment and history of public service on behalf of the 10th CD and I suspect Dave does as well. I think he is running because he wants to make a difference and that alone is admirable. I can't honestly say the same about Seals or Footlik.
I also think he will force the other candidates to paint clear distinctions on their plans for ending the war in Iraq. We know Kirk's (the Iraq Study Group recommendations) we know Dave's (bring troops home immediately) but we don't really know how Dan or Jay will end the war in Iraq - they just say they want it to end. We all do - but the devil is in the details and Dave K's candidacy may be just the thing to force those details out of the dem candidates.
TA,
I saw that Sun Times article early this morning and when I sat down to write a piece on the issue I found this excellent post. Well, I guess that I will have to wake up awfully early...
Well, thanks El Rider- sometimes I get the worm, sometimes not.
Speaking of spineless invertebrates, have you noticed that Ellen has not done much coverage on the race and seems stuck simply on bashing Kirk/Bush? I surmise that she figures she can't talk about Seals without talking about Footlik too, and she would much rather pretend he doesn't exist (as would undoubtedly Seals, but he doesn't have the luxury of ignoring Footlik if Seals expects to have a chance of winning the primary).
"Political lightening only strikes once." Wonder how long it will take e-mail activist Dan Seals to relaize his shot was last time. Footlik, a Green Party candidate and no George Bush. Three years unemployed and two defeats -- wonder if Dan will get a real job then.
Marci
Two words, Marci- "Melissa Bean"
Kirk can't (and won't) take anything for granted this time around.
BOH, I agree with you. The Green candidate is already using Seals' and Footlik's statements against them:
http://chicago.indymedia.org/newswire/display/80066/index.php
Hopefully we will get to hear a 3-way debate. I also found this interesting:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTKWCVy7YdE
He is challenging the "conservatism" of the Republican presidential candidates, and I bet he'll use the same strategy against Kirk. I have to say that I think he makes a valid point in the video.
My link got truncated for some reason. Tack on "index.php" at the end of the Indymedia link.
Kalbfleisch is asking that the Democratic primary winner demand his inclusion in the general election debate since the Democrats are so committed to democratic debate.
Again, I think he's making a valid argument. Hopefully the press will pick up on it.
Dan,
I think your guy may be taking a wrong turn with the bible quoting. I get his point but am really uncomfortable with anybody using religious statements for political purpose - too much killing in the name of God there, and zealots from the left are just as scary as the zealots of the right. Dave's positions are too extreme for me - but I do appreciate his honesty.
I don't see his comment as using religion. He's just pointing out the discrepancy between claiming to represent religious values and killing people. More generally, why do you say one thing and do another? Bush and a number of others have repeatedly claimed that "God is on our side." The antithesis would be Kalbfleisch stating that God demands we depart Iraq, but he's just asking a question. He could have used an unreligious Republican buzz phrase like "family values" the same way--how does killing people build strong families (U.S., Iraqi, or otherwise)?
Dan
But he didn't say family values or some buzz phrase. He said "the bible says thou shall not kill" and that's using religion.
I detest the far right's claim that god is on our side. I really hate when people use the bible to justify homophobia, racism, sexism etc. And i'm just not sure i'm comfortable with DK using it to score a political point.
I just saw Jay's ad twice on two different channels!
Herb G
TA, I do take exception to your comparison between Dan Seals and Melissa Bean. Bean did not beat Phil Carne. Crane lost.
Crane had stopped doing his job a few years ago and that was the way Bean attacked him. He never came home to defend himself and she is now a member of Congress.
To the extent Mark Kirk ever stopped doing his job after trouncing Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman, he has started doing it again very well after Seals got close. Besides, Dan Seals is no Melissa Bean. She has brains and I’ve never heard Seals demonstrate his.
Barbara- no real argument from me, but my point was that Melissa Bean kept coming back and eventually prevailed. Yes, Crane stopped doing his job, but Bean had to be there and in the right position to take advantage. And then she managed to eek out a second win, this time against McSweeney. So, my real issue was with the prior "political lightning only strikes once" comment. You never know when it's going to strike, and those people that take things for granted may find themselves getting burned.
Look, W's out the door, the democratic congress has abandoned its base, Mark's going to win again, and we are finally winning in Iraq. No wonder Ellen is sad and miserble.
Question is what Lauren Beth Gash is going to do when she goes 0-5 against Mark next fall and people start to get smart and vote against these blago boneheads we have trying to hike our taxes in Springfield?
Also Jay being on t.v. this early with those few resources is an act of desperation to get his poll numbers up so he can boost his funding. Nothing to get concerned about.
I just cruised over to Ellen's to see what was going on and the most interesting thing I saw was that she has a new picture of Democat up as her "signature" picture. That, and she let the F-word stay up on a comment, which surprised me, given that she deletes everything in sight she doesn't agree with. I guess either she doesn't read the comments on her own blog, or she has given up hosting a family show.
Donna Feerson:
TA-
You are the most interesting blog in Northern Illinois.
Thank you for standing up for debate.
Thank you for alllowing others to speak.
Thank you for allowing us to see a variety of views.
You are doing a great service to our community.
Wow - the EBG blog gets curioser and curioser. The latest string (with the standing F bomb)is a hard to follow conversation between the blog host and commenter crankyboy on Star Trek episodes analogous to the Bush presidency. Perhaps Cranky boy is ellen's alter-ego - I sense a similarity in writing styles.
OMG, EBG has turned into a cat!!
Publia- looks like Halloween came slightly late on EBG's Blog!
Donna- aw, shucks! Thanks so much for the compliment. We'll try to keep it up here on our end!
No one, especially me, wants an echo chamber.
At the end, Crane didn't even know who his Township GOP Chairmen were or who the elected GOP officials were in his district, with the exception of several who had been around for a long time (Geo-Karis, Churchill, for example).
Elected GOP officials in his district were getting calls that Crane's office was not responsive to their needs. Invitations to Crane for events were going unanswered.
Kirk smartly continues to service his district and makes numerous appearances (although EBG likes to fib that "he is never around").
Big difference there.
Greens will never admit to being spoilers. Ask Ralph Nader and Al Gore about this subject.
Louis G. Atsaves
TA....I can't believe what I just saw on the EBG Blog comments. Let's see how long it takes her to delete that F word. As for Crankyboy, no, it's NOT her. I do know who he is. He thinks like her, talks like her but he's not her. As to why we believe Phil Crane lost. I think he just took his job for granted, his constituents for granted and the rest is history. Mark Kirk has never done that in spite of what those other folks imply. He did slack off in the last cycle and stopped doing in-person Town Hall Meetings. Before that time he was known as the king of the Town Hall meetings. Sorry all you naysayers "over there"...lots of evidence to prove that statement. Now he's doing the TeleTown Hall meetings, 14 to date, he's done 4 in person meetings this cycle. He got the message, big time. Mark Kirk is not Phil Crane.....let's just leave it at that. He will be re-elected, he will continue to do what he does best. EBG, LBG and all those other folks over there will just have to find someone new to attack.
TA,
You are correct about the Bean example and Mark Kirk's campaign. Mark will continue to work the district. One thing that the commenters missed is that Rep. Crane spent the better part of his last year in office at a rehab facility. I was at a New Trier East reunion last summer with Mark and a group of us stayed up very late catching up on our lives, Mark was with us and I don't recall him even having a beer. That has been Mark's M.O. for all of our high school and grammar school reunions. It was great to see Mark on FOX News last weekend, he did a fantastic job.
Stop talking about Ellen Beth Gill -- a pathetic person with no life and writing a BORING blog.
TA is interesting and focused with actual Rs and Ds on.
TA: What about Hillary's position on Driver's Licenses for illegal aliens?
Don
Great question Don, and I believe there is some local tie-in with a bill recently sponsored by 59th Dist. Rep. Kathy Ryg. I will do a little research...
Interesting to see if the democrats get him off the ballot. Does anyone know if his signatures were viable?
Final thought, sad when you dig up a 1972 failed presidential candidate for a fundraiser, but watching footlik have to read off notes to re-iterate the same talking points every democrat in the country has been spewing for 3 years I feel even better about Mark's chances.
My first visit to this blog. Blogs are a great way to freely express opinions. Good work. Milt Jensen
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