Now that the filing deadline for filing for the February 5 primary (the earliest in Illinois history) has just passed, I have seen a number of articles lately that imply that Democrats are poised to take over Lake County, long a bastion of Republican strength, in the same manner that they have overrun the state government. For example, today the Chicago Tribune ran a story highlighting the inroads Dems have made here in Lake County over the past 10 years, and noted that many of the Dems themselves have contested primaries for many races, which up until recently has been rather unusual. See the story here. One Dem official theorized that this is due to the fact that many people are no longer "afraid to declare themselves Democrats and run."
I have a different theory. I wonder if the Dems have already reached their collective peak and are starting to self-implode, much the same way the state and, to some degree, the Lake County Republicans, did to themselves only a few short years ago.
Is TA hopelessly trying to spread his partisan doctrine in the face of another prospective drubbing at the polls, or has he lost all sense of reality? Neither, I think, but you decide. Here's my evidence:
All politics is cyclical. In many respects, in fact, Illinois is a counter-cyclical state (i.e., when the country goes Republican, Illinois tends to go Democratic, and vice-versa). But, more importantly for my point, political parties tend to rise in fall in waves and in a predictable, self-contained and perpetuating cycle.
Stage 1: The party out of power acquires new energy and leadership, supported by those looking for a change from the current establishment. Sometimes this rebirth is closely related to the prior incarnation of the party, but sometimes the new group is related almost in name only.
Stage 2: Through hard work and strategy (and some luck), the minority party begins to make inroads, slowly at first, but gathers momentum. Soon, the playing field is level, and then (sometimes apparently abruptly, but usually not if you look at the actual way events unfold) the minority party is now the majority party.
Stage 3: The new majority undertakes to accomplish its lofty goals, now that it has risen to power, which, of course, was on the promise that such goals would be fulfilled. But, human beings being who and what we are, the new majority (which heretofore has been united in its goal to unseat the former majority party) now falls to squabbling among themselves to divvy up the political spoils.
Stage 4: The state of the majority party disintegrates due to internal power struggles, allowing the other party to rise again.
Repeat every 5 to 20 years, depending.
The cycle is inevitable, as it relies on human nature as its core driver--which nature isn't really subject to change, and obviously affects ALL political parties, as they are all made of human beings. While I wasn't a polly-psi major, and I'm sure I'm not the first person to make this observation in any event, I HAVE read 1984 about a gazillion times, and the analysis of class struggles given in Goldstein's Book in that story does, I admit, have echoes of the above analysis.
Anyway, the point is that rather than still being on the way up, the Lake County Dems may have already come full circle (with their victories in gaining state legislative and some county board seats, among others) and are approaching Stage 4 much sooner than anyone might have guessed, and long before their counterparts at the state level took to reach the verge of implosion. My guess is that the large number of Dem primary challenges may be evidence of the splintering of solidarity among the Dems (who in Lake County have always been rather an independent lot) that is now coming to a head, and all manner of likely candidates are now coming out of the woodwork, smelling a chance for an easy victory over their Republican opponents in November 2008, if only they can get past the Dem primary. But, the Dems may be in for a bit of a surprise.
While some may argue that a primary race actually strengthens the party and the eventual winner (and Lake County Dem Chairman Terry Link is accused by some of favoring, if not promoting, inter-party primaries for this reason), I think it more often does more harm than good. For example, in the case of an incumbent facing a primary challenge (e.g., Melissa Bean of the 8th District, who pulled two challengers) it highlights the weakness of the incumbent candidate. (Ironically, even the iron master of the Lake County Dems, Terry Link, has drawn a primary challenge.) For a non-incumbent party primary, such as Jay Footlik v. Dan Seals, it will use up money and resources that could be better spent directly against 10th District incumbent Mark Kirk. Add to that the inter-party damage that is done not only to the character and credentials of the primary opponents to each other, but the residual bad feelings that may erode support within the party from the more zealous advocates of the loser (Footlik fans and Seals fans may never see eye to eye again, from what I've seen over at Ellen's Blog).
So, is the fact that there are so many Dem challenges out there evidence that the Dems are already fighting over the soup pot to be in charge of the ladle? And if so, will there be as much soup to savor if the Republicans sneak back in the kitchen earlier than expected?
For those of you who say that the Republicans are toast, and the Dems are not done with their climb to the top, again remember that it's all cyclical, and what goes up must come down eventually.
In my research tonight, I also found a nice article that stated "In a reversal of what has happened in the past, more potential Democratic candidates than prospective Republican candidates announced for office. This is not to say the county's Republicans are giving up. They are not." The title of the article? "Lake County: Once a GOP bastion, but not any more." Sound like the articles we've been reading this week? Well, it's not. It's from 1976.
Discuss.
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10 comments:
The party in power has to fight off growing fat and lazy and taking elections for granted. Of avoiding dictating to the electorate instead of listening to them. Are the Lake County Democrats falling victim to what happened to some in the Lake County GOP?
In the last primary cycle, many Geo-Karis supporters were shocked she lost and many admitted that they didn't bother to vote or campaign for her thinking she would win with no problem. All GOTV efforts in the face of complacency generally will fail. Have Lake County Democrats reached that state with a few of the seats they are currently holding? Time will tell.
There is also difference between a primary challenge and a party civil war. We need to ask whether or not some of the primary challenges in Lake County will degenerate into civil wars to validate your theory TA.
Primary challenges involving multiple offices is not a problem for either party. The primary challenger winner has a campaign in place that is battle hardened and tested. It becomes a problem when the party endorses and/or actively supports one candidate over another. When that happens, it leaves a bitter feeling that prevents post-primary healing. Instead of battle hardened and tested, you get more intra-party grief. In Lake County on the Republican side, there is also the RALC factor. Their recent multiple telephone bombardments of precinct committeemen were cited as a reason why several committeemen in my region refused to seek reelection. Just can't wait to hear the RALC crow that fewer wish to be committeemen now. It's hard to build and expand when stuff like that happens.
What happened in the IL Senate 31st GOP race in 2006 seems to be happening again in the IL Senate 26th GOP race for 2008. If this is true, then the Lake GOP and the State Senate GOP hasn't yet learned any lessons from the past.
In terms of resources, the GOP primary battle in the IL Senate 31st race in 2006 cost a quarter of a million dollars between the two campaigns, not to mention countless hours of work by many volunteers. Many nasty personal things were said against one candidate that the press gleefully pounced upon. Reliable State GOP donors were threatened by the State Senate GOP not to contribute to one campaign that later licked their wounds when the Illinois Senate became "veto-proof". That same party brass then became angry when that candidate reached out to mostly non-political sources for her funding. Many of those same threatened donors later sat on their hands when the primary winner needed cash.
The candidate running against Senator Link in this primary is reportedly being backed by a labor union that is retaliating against Link for something that sounds like Link previously endorsing the opponent to the current union president. That sounds more like a potential civil war than a primary challenge. A few defeated Chicago Alderman can attest to that.
The candidate running against Representative Eddie Washington is being backed by the old school Democrats in Lake County. Patricia Jones battle, part two in that region of Lake County? By Washington's public and private comments, this one too sounds like a civil war.
And the nasty comments and accusations being made by Seals supporters towards Footlik has all the earmarks of a nasty and expensive civil war.
I was campaign chairman for one candidate in the IL Senate 31st in 2006 and found myself in the middle of the nastiest civil war in GOP Lake County history. I insisted throughout that campaign that our side keep it clean and not get personal and nasty. So did the candidate. In retrospect, taking the high ground may have been a tactical error. It resulted in a loss that was filled with compliments for taking the high road.
So your analysis needs to dig deeper to determine if those primary battles are challenges or civil wars. And if it is a civil war, don't take the high road candidates. Take off the gloves and put on the brass knuckles.
As for me, I will be avoiding any primary fight that looks like it will turn into a civil war. Been there. Done that. Never again!
Louis G. Atsaves
An insightful analysis, as always, Lou. I agree with your 'healthy' primary vs. "civil war" analogy, and you are right, that is the main question. At the risk of boriing everyone with too much inside baseball, I would say that the other thing to consider, though, is that while some Dem primaries may indeed mark open civil war between the establishment and non-establishment Dems (the Washington debacle is the most obvious example), the other thing to consider is that the Dem's success in recent years is owed in large part to mastermind Terry Link and his chessmaster-like ability to scout out a plan and races to win years in advance.
Link, to his credit, has been picking off the Republican offices one by one, about one or two major offices a cycle. True, he has been helped by infighting in the Republican party and minor scandalous issues among some Republican office holders that helped him along, but Link's party discipline and plan was the main driver behind the Dem success.
As I understand it, Link's philosophy is that in order to get his support, you have to agree to run for the same office twice, largely expecting to lose the first time. Given that Link has ruled the party with an iron hand for the last ten or so years (with no turnover in party chairmanship, unlike the frequent turnover with the Lake County GOP), he was able to move the pieces on the chess board and pick off races, starting with the pawns (municipal level races)and moving up to the knights (state reps) and better pieces. Will Link contine until the GOP is checkmated? We shall see.
My point is that I see a potential undermining of Link's ability to control his party, given the large number of primary candidates, including his own primary opponent. Given that Link's success was largely built on his ability to control the movements of the pieces on his side of the chessboard, we will all be interested in what happens when those pieces start fighting for themselves.
Oh, and one more thing, Lou. I don't think the current 26th District race resembles the 31st race last time, and doesn't bode for the same tragic result. The difference in the 26th primary race is that the seat is open. Neither Bill Peterson nor the party has anointed anyone as his successor. We have two good candidates (Dan Duffy and Rod Drobinski) who are both good Republicans and running for the right reasons. Unless either one goes overly negative or starts using "dirty tricks," there is no reason why the eventual primary winner should not enjoy the support of the loser, and the entire party should be unified behind the candidate.
I think that Rod may be disspointed with some people in the Lake Gounty GOP that are not jumping on his bandwagon and are supporting Duffy, despite the fact that Rod has been active in the party, while Dan is a newcomber. But, while support of the party and "carrying the water for the elephant," as we like to say, is clearly important, it is not a litmus test. Otherwise, we would be a party of backdoor dealings and smoke-filled room party anointments like back in the old days. No thanks. As long as the primary battle is a 'healthy,' honorable one, those battles can strengthen the party at the end of the day, like I said in my post. It's when we get the Footlik v. Seals effect that things go haywire and the party ticket suffers.
Your take on Link is interesting and on the mark. What we both forget is someone also filed against Terry Link in his own precinct for precinct committeeman. If somehow Link loses that committeeman race, he can no longer be party chairman.
Who is the mystery opponent?
Louis G. Atsaves
Link's primary opponent is Rick (probably Richard) Posey, according to the County Clerk candidate list, which is at http://www.co.lake.il.us/cntyclk/pdfs/Feb52008Candidatelist.pdf
Posey is obviously a different individual than the former North Chicago mayor Jerry L. Johnson, but maybe Posey is one of Johnson's union allies. A quick Google search doesn't reveal much on Posey.
Anyone out there know the inside dope?
There is no love lost between Link and our African-
American community. Link and Pete Couval have taken us for granted and done nothing. They are now trying to defeat the last remaining minority Democrats in Lake County.
Louis T. Johnson
Louis- I think you are correct, but it seems that somtimes the African-American community is its own worst enemy when it comes to having a chance to depose Link. Certain people are willing to be bought by the money (or at least the promise of money) thrown around certain quarters, and when there was a chance to get behind a different candidate (Chuck Fitzgerald), many people pledged their support and then stayed home on election day, or just went with the flow and voted straight Dem as usual. Am I wrong?
Ellen continues to side with terrorists over the safety of the american people with her screed against W.'s efforts to keep us safe.
TA who's your prez nominee?
I like McCain, but could live with Giuliani, and could live with Romney if I had to. Thompson is fine, but concerned about the "there" being there.
Even though I like him better, I think McCain would not stack up against Hillary as well as Rudy, though, as long as Rudy can do something to win over the social conservatives... or if Rudy can convince them that no matter how non-conservative some of his views are, it's still better than Billary back in the White House.
TA,
McCain would do well against Ms. Clinton with a lot of old-school dems like my dad. He is a blue collar, union guy, east coast dem and also a vet (marines). He loves McCain. He voted for Clinton in her senate race (He lives in Albany County NY) but I swear he would walk a precint with McCain literature - and he would have a lot of his VFW buddies with him.
As a reminder tomorrow is the Marince Corp Birthday. Hey dad -Semper Fi!
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