Jay "First Strike" Footlik Beats Dan Seals to the 10th District Mailboxes, Picks Up Good Press and an Early Endorsement

Well, campers, it looks like Jay Footlik, the fresh Dem challenger to established candidate (and previous 2006 election loser) Dan Seals, has beaten his opponent to the 10th District mailboxes. The bell has rung, and the boxers have come out swinging!

View Jay Footlik's first direct mail piece here (may take a minute or two for the download).

A few observations about Jay's first effort are in order.

• Jay hits hard on the underdog role: his father abandoned the family, but strong family ties on his mother's side, who raised him;


• Jewish ties and credentials are emphasized;


• worked for former Congressman Abner Mikva (more on this below);


• experience in Bill Clinton's administration where he got his foreign policy exposure;


• tries to invoke military ties through a grandfather who was a veteran (a bit of a stretch);


• believes in the Golden Rule (more on this below too); and


• overall, it's a positive "get to know me" piece, which is appropriate, since few in the 10th District know who he is as of now, and clearly, you don't want to start smearing your opponent right out of the box.
  

Not bad for the first piece of the season. But, I hope he has enough money to do many more, because he is starting off as the unknown newbie against the much more established Dan Seals.

Now, does it really matter that Footlik has sent out the first mailer of the primary? Yes and no.

Yes, in that Jay has come out swinging, and will get to the voters first, while the campaign season has barely kicked off. He's showing Seals, at least, that he's serious, he has the energy, and he's come to win.

Yes, in that he is targeting his primary audience: Jewish voters, and he needs to get to them before Seals comes out and reminds the north shore Jewish community that he's running again (of course, Jay needs to capture these votes--of which many probably voted for Seals last time around--and then move beyond this natural constituency quickly if he is to win).

Yes, in that he needs to introduce himself to voters before they get used to seeing Seals' name on a couple hundred lawn signs and bumper stickers and will not bother to consider an alternative.

Yes, in that no matter what Seals does or says in the next few weeks, Seals will now be seen as playing a defensive game by responding to Footlik's first sally. And the longer Seals takes to respond, the worse he'll look (wonder if Seals has his act together enough to respond quickly, or has this early shot across his bow taken Seals by surprise?)

No, in that we are just getting started, and the voters are going to get pretty numb before this is all over. Plenty of time for more pieces from both candidates. Look to see them get more refined and targeted, but also probably more vicious as one or both men get desperate.

No, in that Footlik is playing catch-up in name recognition (hence the first piece is an introduction to Jay, which step Seals can largely afford to skip).

No, in that nowhere in the piece does Footlik give voters a reason to vote for him over Seals, or even Mark Kirk, for that matter. This will no doubt come later, and there is probably no way Footlik could have accomplished all of that in his first mailing, but the point is that Footlik needs to win TWO races--first against Seals, and then against Kirk, and he'll have to show voters why they should believe in him. So far, he's shown potential, but nothing else.


Jay also had two other positive press items this week. First, the Pioneer Press picked up the Footlik press release that attacked Seals for not engaging in debates. See the article here. Interestingly, Seals is quoted as refuting Footlik's claim that he is ducking debates. "I think for someone who says he lives by the Golden Rule, he's [Footlik] got a lot to learn about playing fair," Seals said. I guess either Seals got an advance copy of the Footlik piece, or Footlik has been using that catch phrase on the stump.

Second, Footlik got the endorsement from the Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee (DAPAC), as seen here. I don't know much about DAPAC, or whether its endorsement means anything much. But, I found it interesting that the site for DAPAC trumpets that former congressman Abner Mikva supports DAPAC (although I was pretty sure that Mikva had come out in support of Seals, not Footlik. Wonder how Mikva likes Footlik trading on his name and fame...?) Also, the endorsement notice asserts that "Jay has pledged to vote progressively when elected to Congress on issues including choice, same-sex marriage, the environment, healthcare, and more. Footlik will be facing competition in the Democratic primary from a more conservative opponent." (emphasis mine).

So, it seems like the battle lines are already being drawn and the chess pieces are moving on the board. As predicted here some time ago, the two candidates are already trying to out-left each other in shameless appeals to the leftist base of the party, even as they must realize that they will have to pull back to the center for the primary to appeal to the notoriously independent-minded voters in the 10th District. Footlik wants to position himself as the more progressive candidate to Seals' more "conservative" character. But, as noted here some time ago, this will be a constant back-and-forth struggle, as evidenced by the two candidates on various positions (compare Footlik's hawkish views on enemies of Israel with Seals' more pacifistic views).

So, it appears that Footlik has fired a few good shots against Seals in this first official week of the primary campaign. And where is Dan Seals? Apparently, he is concentrating on outreach to voters in the 8th District, not the 10th!

Good luck, Dan. You're going to need it.


UPDATED 11/03/07: Looks like the Tenth Dems are trying to be a little less biased towards Seals and against Footlik, at least on their face, as their website is now listing a few Footlik events. However, maybe Footlik better pay more attention to some of the details. The Tenth Dems site notes that money for a November 11th fundraiser in Winnetka can be sent to the following address: Footlik for Congress, 1248 West Altgeld, Chicago, IL 60614.

A gold star and a double portion of chocolate cake to the first person who can identify what is wrong with THAT fundraising address???

UPDATED x2: "I am Sparticus" has solved the mystery--see comments.

UPDATED x3 11/04/07: "Publia" dives even deeper and uncovers a Footlik hired gun--see comments.