Friday, November 2, 2007

Jay "First Strike" Footlik Beats Dan Seals to the 10th District Mailboxes, Picks Up Good Press and an Early Endorsement

Well, campers, it looks like Jay Footlik, the fresh Dem challenger to established candidate (and previous 2006 election loser) Dan Seals, has beaten his opponent to the 10th District mailboxes. The bell has rung, and the boxers have come out swinging!

View Jay Footlik's first direct mail piece here (may take a minute or two for the download).

A few observations about Jay's first effort are in order.



  • Jay hits hard on the underdog role: his father abandoned the family, but strong family ties on his mother's side, who raised him;

  • Jewish ties and credentials are emphasized;

  • worked for former Congressman Abner Mikva (more on this below);

  • experience in Bill Clinton's administration where he got his foreign policy exposure;

  • tries to invoke military ties through a grandfather who was a veteran (a bit of a stretch);

  • believes in the Golden Rule (more on this below too); and

  • overall, it's a positive "get to know me" piece, which is appropriate, since few in the 10th District know who he is as of now, and clearly, you don't want to start smearing your opponent right out of the box.

Not bad for the first piece of the season. But, I hope he has enough money to do many more, because he is starting off as the unknown newbie against the much more established Dan Seals.

Now, does it really matter that Footlik has sent out the first mailer of the primary? Yes and no.


Yes, in that Jay has come out swinging, and will get to the voters first, while the campaign season has barely kicked off. He's showing Seals, at least, that he's serious, he has the energy, and he's come to win.

Yes, in that he is targeting his primary audience: Jewish voters, and he needs to get to them before Seals comes out and reminds the north shore Jewish community that he's running again (of course, Jay needs to capture these votes--of which many probably voted for Seals last time around--and then move beyond this natural constituency quickly if he is to win).

Yes, in that he needs to introduce himself to voters before they get used to seeing Seals' name on a couple hundred lawn signs and bumper stickers and will not bother to consider an alternative.

Yes, in that no matter what Seals does or says in the next few weeks, Seals will now be seen as playing a defensive game by responding to Footlik's first sally. And the longer Seals takes to respond, the worse he'll look (wonder if Seals has his act together enough to respond quickly, or has this early shot across his bow taken Seals by surprise?)

No, in that we are just getting started, and the voters are going to get pretty numb before this is all over. Plenty of time for more pieces from both candidates. Look to see them get more refined and targeted, but also probably more vicious as one or both men get desperate.

No, in that Footlik is playing catch-up in name recognition (hence the first piece is an introduction to Jay, which step Seals can largely afford to skip).

No, in that nowhere in the piece does Footlik give voters a reason to vote for him over Seals, or even Mark Kirk, for that matter. This will no doubt come later, and there is probably no way Footlik could have accomplished all of that in his first mailing, but the point is that Footlik needs to win TWO races--first against Seals, and then against Kirk, and he'll have to show voters why they should believe in him. So far, he's shown potential, but nothing else.


Jay also had two other positive press items this week. First, the Pioneer Press picked up the Footlik press release that attacked Seals for not engaging in debates. See the article here. Interestingly, Seals is quoted as refuting Footlik's claim that he is ducking debates. "I think for someone who says he lives by the Golden Rule, he's [Footlik] got a lot to learn about playing fair," Seals said. I guess either Seals got an advance copy of the Footlik piece, or Footlik has been using that catch phrase on the stump.

Second, Footlik got the endorsement from the Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee (DAPAC), as seen here. I don't know much about DAPAC, or whether its endorsement means anything much. But, I found it interesting that the site for DAPAC trumpets that former congressman Abner Mikva supports DAPAC (although I was pretty sure that Mikva had come out in support of Seals, not Footlik. Wonder how Mikva likes Footlik trading on his name and fame...?) Also, the endorsement notice asserts that "Jay has pledged to vote progressively when elected to Congress on issues including choice, same-sex marriage, the environment, healthcare, and more. Footlik will be facing competition in the Democratic primary from a more conservative opponent." (emphasis mine).

So, it seems like the battle lines are already being drawn and the chess pieces are moving on the board. As predicted here some time ago, the two candidates are already trying to out-left each other in shameless appeals to the leftist base of the party, even as they must realize that they will have to pull back to the center for the primary to appeal to the notoriously independent-minded voters in the 10th District. Footlik wants to position himself as the more progressive candidate to Seals' more "conservative" character. But, as noted here some time ago, this will be a constant back-and-forth struggle, as evidenced by the two candidates on various positions (compare Footlik's hawkish views on enemies of Israel with Seals' more pacifistic views).

So, it appears that Footlik has fired a few good shots against Seals in this first official week of the primary campaign. And where is Dan Seals? Apparently, he is concentrating on outreach to voters in the 8th District, not the 10th!

Good luck, Dan. You're going to need it.


UPDATED 11/03/07: Looks like the Tenth Dems are trying to be a little less biased towards Seals and against Footlik, at least on their face, as their website is now listing a few Footlik events. However, maybe Footlik better pay more attention to some of the details. The Tenth Dems site notes that money for a November 11th fundraiser in Winnetka can be sent to the following address: Footlik for Congress, 1248 West Altgeld, Chicago, IL 60614.

A gold star and a double portion of chocolate cake to the first person who can identify what is wrong with THAT fundraising address???

UPDATED x2: "I am Sparticus" has solved the mystery--see comments.

UPDATED x3 11/04/07: "Publia" dives even deeper and uncovers a Footlik hired gun--see comments.

35 comments:

Unknown said...

republicans don't have a snowball's chance in hell next year. Thank the president.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Footlik is going to be our candidate this time.

Sara Feinberg

Team America said...

Champ- here's a newsflash: the current president won't be on the ballot this time around. Democrats need to figure that out and get a new plan.

The lot of them are like generals that are preparing to fight the last war. Repeating I'm not Bush won't do any good when Bush is not on the ticket, and the Republican candidates are using practically the same tagline.

Anonymous said...

TA: Let me get this straight -- Democrats offer us:

1. A one time loser (Seals) who has been unemployed for two years or

2. A Welfare mom's kid who grew up on food stamps (these are Footlik's own words).

Yeesch

Anonymous said...

Yea, but they are both very progressive, I think that means to the left of liberal.

Anonymous said...

In the Pioneer Press article, Seals seemed to be saying that his scheduling issues were preventing him from agreeing to more debates. Maybe Footlik should ask Seals if Seals' new job at that "Point" blog/website is taking up too much of his time to engage in debates or other campaign activities.

Anonymous said...

TA, you’re right about the fact the President won’t be on the ballot this time. Maybe if Seals reads your blog, he can learn something.

Every time he opens his mouth he keeps running against Bush. Jay, at least, keeps saying Bush and Kirk came to Washington together and they should leave together. He gets it, but then Seals cannot touch Jay or Mark on intellect.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:58

So, Footlik growing up with help from food stamps (through no fault of his own) makes him unqualified to represent the District?

Should he be ashamed of that or something? Maybe he didn't win the birth lottery as much as you did, but at least he's seeking to serve his country, in spite of that.

What have you done lately?

Moder8 said...

TA, thanks for the analysis.

With Kirk's $1 million +, the Dem's primary battle and the DCCC cash machine that will likely hit the district, this is going to be an ugly year for citizens.

But the only people really benefiting will be the ad agencies, printers and video producers...hopefully, they will all be in the district so it will help the local economy.

Note to candidates who might be tempted to oursource...be careful about hiring companies from outside the district to do your work. We'll be watching!

Anonymous said...

So, Kirk is planning on spending more than $1 million to try to keep a $165,200 job? Even when almost half his constituents hated him enough to vote against him?

Congress must have some great health care benefits...better than mine, anyway.

Anonymous said...

You give a good analysis, TA. Seems like Footlik would give Mark a strong run for his money while Seals will become a two-time loser making him twice what Hank Perritt or Lee Goodman were.

Mark represents a majority of our district because his positions on Israel, the environment and a women’s right to choose appeal to voters who otherwise go with the Democrats. Footlik is also very strong on Israel and the environment with proven accomplishments on his resume.

If Footlik disposes of Seals in the primary, we will be in for a battle between a strong, intelligent challenger and a smart Congressman. It will be a campaign worth watching.

If Seals makes another run at Kirk, I expect a yawner because the DCCC will look at its polling and put its resources behind Debbie Halvorson and Dick Vercase. Those two stand a far better chance of gaining seats than Seals. Footlik, however, will be worth some DCCC bucks.

Publia said...

I think the food stamps thing is about as relevant as my Dad's long bout with an ingrown toenail during my childhood.

It also raises the question of family values when the piece prominently displays information on what I presume to be Mom Footlik's parents. Mom was poor because Dad was a creep, but it's not likely her family was poor; they look pretty middle class from the photos. I think its almost bizarre to talk about Mom on foodstamps and show Mom with a costly salon set.

I would suggest the adversity was Mom Footlik's, who seemed to do pretty okay for her sons, not Jay's. Or if it was his adversity, it certainly doesn't tell us his story, all we know is they didn't have a lot of money, but the bit on strong family values would lead one to believe that money was the only adversity involved. That isn't a good message.

I was pretty well disposed to liking Footlik, but this piece--which I believe is NOT a winning piece--will not do it. It doesn't tell Footlik's story in a very appealing way. And with all due respect, his daughter needed a haircut at the time of the photo, and I don't think they are holding off because they are Orthodox.

Banging the drum for Mikva, Simon, and Adlai should be well received, however. On balance, this piece won't win converts from Dan Seals, and Footlik has to do that to win the primary.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:13 a.m. Congressman Mark's health care benefits are ok, not great. He has what ALL Federal employees have, nothing more, nothing less. So why does he want to remain in Congress? That's an easy one. Our Congressman makes a difference. Whether it's on leading the discussion on Stem Cell Research and helping overturn the president's veto TWICE, whether it's on helping protect a woman's right to choose, whether it's working on keeping our kids safe on the Internet, voting against some fiscally extravagent ideas like the Bridge to Nowhere or the sugar subsidies, our Congressman's voice and his votes are making a difference. When it comes to his leadership on issues involving Israel nobody comes close. And then you can look at all that he has achieved for his constituents in this district. No need to detail everything that sets him above his challengers. This is going to be an interesting year ahead. Congressman Kirk will be out all over the district listening, talking, responding to current and future needs of our district, our state, our country, our world. It's all about his leadership and that's why so many have stepped up so early to show him the kind of financial support he enjoys. Why? Because they all want him to continue to be the Congressman representing them when all the ballots are counted a year from now.

Anonymous said...

Thanks to Publia and No Left Turn, this blog has become decidedly boring. Kirk is great, blah, blah, blah. I'm an Independent and have always voted for Porter and Kirk, but I'm not so sure this time.

TA, you gave some intelligent commentary that had me thinking. But some of your one-dimensional "friends" have turned me off and reminded me how bad simple-minded partisanship is. Pretty scary. Good luck.

Publia said...

Well, anon, I would be willing to stop commenting if Mark Kirk could have your vote, and you would no longer be bored. Deal?

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:02 p.m Sorry that you feel it's boring to answer some of the questions posed by other Anons on this Blog regarding Congressman Kirk. If you're going to change your vote because some of us champion all the good things that Mr. Kirk does that says a whole lot about why you voted for him in the first place. Be fair...Publia and I are not running.......this is about Congressman Kirk. There were no Blogs during the tenure of John Edward Porter....I guess HE was lucky.

Anonymous said...

Publia 8:59 a.m. Commenting on Footlink's daughter's hair is offensive, whether or not you try to temper your remarks about the hair of a 3 year old(or whatever her age) by saying "with all due respect". I would hope people don't even notice that, much less have it effect their vote.

Publia said...

Those Seals' girls are pretty darn cute. People will notice everything on a mailer.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:58

Sorry Jay - didn't want to upset your lurking on this site.

Unincorporated Middle said...

C'mon TA

He was acquitted.

Team America said...

UM- sorry, what?

El Rider said...

Alright TA,
I give up on the Altgeld address thing. I walk by there going to and from the el and it is just a townhome development. Is the problem that it is outside of the district or that it is a private residence?

Team America said...

El Rider- I can't figure it out either, but the issue for me is that it's a Chicago, out-of-district address.

Since it's a private fundraiser in Winnetka, I would assume if Footlik was not using the Vernon Hills PO Box that's listed on his campaign website as the official campaign address (Hmm... no storefront office... another bad sign... but I don't know that Seals has one either, unlike Kirk), they would use the person's address who is hosting the event, and it would be a Winnetka address. At least that would make sense, and be in the district. So, I have no idea what the Altgeld connection is, I just think it looks bad.

Of course, the Dems seem very open and willing to accept trucked-in help from Chicago in many forms (money, bodies, whatever), so maybe on the Dem side having a Chicago contact for a fundraiser isn't quite the stigma it might be to Republicans.

Seals certainly can hardly make a big deal of it since he doesn't even live in the district, so maybe Footlik thinks he's bullet-proof on the issue.

Anonymous said...

TA,

Here's one answer to your update question. Check out this link: http://www.vgt2004.org/a-wbbm/candidate-detail.go?id=4613475. Why is Footlik fundraising out of Houlihan's campaign office?

Anonymous said...

Jay's job in the clinton white house was the hanukah party. The hanukah party. W's liasion was a 22 year old kid whose dad ran the holocaust museum.

Also Presidential campaign teams have 40-50 foreign policy advisers, minimum. All you have to do is serve in an administration in some sort of capacity and make connections.

What D.C. needs right now is people who are not of D.C.- Footlik's a classic insider.

What our district needs is someone of and by the district, not a neophytes from outside, see Dan and Jay, serving their ambitions and democratic leadership masters in d.c.

Team America said...

Great sleuthing, Sparticus!

Very, very curious as to why Footlik is using Cook County Assessor James Houlihan as the mailbox for his campaign contributions, at least for this particular Winnetka event. The event itself features former Ambassador Dennis Ross. Learn more about Ross here: http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2006-07-18-arab-umbrella_x.htm

That will pretty much explain why he's stumping for Footlik.

What's not explained is why the money for this fundraiser is running through Houlihan's home (or is it the campaign?) address. Houlihan is not even listed on the 10th Dem notice as a sponsor of the event.

Is this just another example of the Chicago machine trying to assert its influence up in Lake County? I guess if it worked for Seals (i.e., Schakowsky, etc.), why not for Footlik?

Publia said...

Dan Hynes has used that address, too.

Publia said...

Actually, this is a better link:
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=The_Competence_Group/Chicago%2C_Inc.

"The Competence Group/Chicago, Inc., formed in January 2001, is a Chicago-based political consulting firm. David Rosen is company president and CEO.

"Other clients of Rosen's firm, called the Competence Group, include gubernatorial candidate Rod Blagojevich, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and California Gov. Gray Davis. Rosen runs the name of each $5,000-plus donor through databases to see if there is dirt on a contributor. But that only catches people who have a paper trail." Chicago Sun-Times, September 19, 2002."

Team America said...

Nice job too, Publia. David Rosen is listed as the event contact person. I assume this means that Rosen is a Footlik hired gun, and not simply a supporter. You would think Rosen would try to leave less of a paper trail himself...

Well, it's clear that Footlik is spending some of his money on some professional guidance. Good move on his part. Wonder who Seals has in his corner?

Anonymous said...

The hosts for the event on November 11 WERE strongly in the Seals 'camp' in the last go-around. Now I see their names on everything Jay Footlik is doing. They're also max contributors to Mr. Footlik. He is very busy talking to and encouraging many who were formally supporting Dan to jump ship. They have.

Publia said...

Rosen's a Democratic fundraiser, and I don't think we can fault a candidate for using a pro, especially since this is a pretty big race. Of interest is that he is one of Hillary Clinton's fundraisers, and the strong vote for Dan Seals in 2006 might have been a coat tails effect of the Senate race. On the other hand, Footlik's roots in the Clinton White House is probably the most reasonable explanation.

Team America said...

Agreed, Publia, I think Footlik is wise to bring in some big Dem brainpower/fundraising power. That's why I wonder if Seals is far behind the curve on this.

Anonymous said...

I just saw Footlik's TV Commercial -- good job Jay!

Herb Gilder

Team America said...

Herb- Where did you see the spot?Do you have a link?

The only think on YouTube is a sad little trailer set to the "Eye of the Tiger" that was posted three months ago (and mostly just reminds people that Kirk has now beaten FOUR other Dem opponents). You sure you're not seeing old news?

If it's new, we'd all be very interested in finding out what the media buy was, and if this would spend everything poor Jay has in the bank. Give him credit for coming out strong but he has two more months of the primary season to go.

Publia said...

I am sure Footlik can arrange to have his ad posted up on Youtube, he probably just hasn't thought of it. Perhaps someone could mention that to him because I think there are a number of his supporters commenting here.