The results are not final, but as of two minutes ago from this post, incumbent Congressman Mark Kirk held a commanding lead over Democrat challengers Dan Seals and Jay Footlik in Tribune Columnist Eric Zorn's unscientific '20 Questions for 2008' survey. After TA cast his vote, the totals for question "Who will win the race in the 10th U.S. Congressional District (North Shore)?" are:
Incumbent Republican Mark Kirk (227 responses) 62.9%
Democratic challenger Dan Seals (117 responses) 32.4%
Democratic challenger Jay Footlik (17 responses) 4.7%
361 total responses
Obviously, this is not a scientific poll, and it's not of "likely voters" or even necessarily limited to voters in the 10th District. So, I doubt Mark Kirk will be trumpeting these results in a press release or anything. But, the most interesting part of the poll (for 10th Dist. purposes) was really in the answer to two other questions:
Which party will win the White House?
The Democrats (302 responses) 78.9%
The Republicans (81 responses) 21.1%
383 total responses
and
Will Sen. Dick Durbin get at least 66 percent of the vote when he runs for re-election in November?
Yes (262 responses) 69.5%
No (115 responses) 30.5%
377 total responses
To me, that seems to be an indication that even though many people seem to think the Dems will have a banner election in Nov. 2008, Mark Kirk will still come through on top, probably for all of the reasons we talk about often here. The 10th Dist. voters are a notoriously independent lot, and it doesn't surprise me at all that Kirk's support is strong even while Dems are strong state-wide and perhaps nation-wide.
Seals with 32.4% of the vote isn't even in the ballpark. That tells me that his 47% of the vote in 2006 was pretty much what we all figured, i.e., a national reaction to Bush and the war, which most likely will not be the same situation come this fall.
It also tells me that Footlik (4.7%) has a lot of work to do, and that maybe the Seals poll that we discussed here a few weeks ago wasn't so far off the mark. You'd think that if Footlik had better numbers to talk about by now, we would have heard... but maybe he's saving it for after the New Year. Or maybe not.
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18 comments:
Looks like the Footlik folks who post here have been busy! I just voted and Jay is now up to a whopping 18%!
Gotta love the enthusiasm.
Thanks for the link to Kirk's comments on Bhutto assasination. I remember when she was first elected and the overwhelming sense of positive change she embodied - She was a remarkable woman and the world should be horrified and saddened by her ruthless murder.
BOH- you are absolutely right, and it's something I was tracking as well this afternoon. I posted my story at about 1:15 p.m. (I had started it earlier, which is why the clock shows 11:20), at which time the results were as stated in the post.
I checked in again at 2:18 p.m., and Kirk was at 54.0% (249 votes), Seals at 27.9% (127 votes), and Footlik was up to 17.5% (85 votes). The total number of votes was 456. When I posted, Footlik had only 4.7% and 17 votes, out of a total of 361 votes cast. That means that in the space of a few hours, out of 95 additional votes cast, Footlik got 63. That a whopping 66% of the votes cast once the survey was publicized here at Team America.
Even worse, I then checked in only a few minutes later and Footlik had jumped up 5 additional votes, to 85 (18.4%), while Kirk and Seals had not moved.
That's the problem with unscientific polls. There's nothing to stop an overzealous supporter (or candidate) to sit there with his or her thumb on the button.
I guess we can't blame Jay directly for trying to skew the results (since we have no idea who padded the numbers) but we can see that someout out there was mortified at Footlik's poor showing.
Here's a newsflash guys: even in Chicago, you only get to vote once in the real election.
If Obama is at the top of the ticket this is all meaningless and I am sure Kirk would tell you that himself.
Also seals or footlik will do negative ads, that will help them.
I also don't think it's a good sign for anyone when a state that goes from Massachusettes to North Carolina and is the most diverse in the country statistically urban versus rural, black white hispanic ect, expects its democratic senator at the helm of a congress less popular than dirt-people like fertilizer, to win big.
Anon 3:49- not sure I agree about Obama's impact if he's on the general ballot. We all know he'll carry Illinois, so he will spend no time or money here to get votes--he'll do fundraisers for himself to collect all the bucks he can, but he won't fundraise or appear for others (like Seals), most likely--he'll simply be too busy.
And, the Dem voters will see no need to go to the polls since they know he'll have his home state wrapped up, even if it's a close race nationally.
I'd actually be more concerned if Obama's not on the ticket, as that frees him up to come back to Illinois (finally) and campaign for others. It's likely he'll still spend a lot of time on the road campaigning for other Dems in other states, though.
So, in sum, Obama's not going to win it for Seals singlehandedly. Seals has to carry a little weight by himself.
As far as Durbin goes, those numbers simply reflect the fact that he is enormously powerful, has a huge warchest, and no real competition (call me a realist). C'est la vie.
News flash: after what Axelrod did to his candidate Obama (blaming the Bhutto assassination on Hilary's vote on Iraq), Obama will sink.
Wrong time for Team O to make such an error.
Sorry libs.
As for Obama, everyone and their brother is going to turn out to vote for the first black president from Illinois. Lynn Sweet, D.C. Democrats local spokesman, will empty barrels of ink reminding voters how Obama and Lincoln are tied together trying to secure her status as insider for his administration if god forbid we get that far.
TA I love the daily biting on Seals but the big picture is the failure of the state party to muster a spine and the state media's pardon the french, orgy for Obama- Rich Miller, a purported "journalist" flaunts pictures of his father with an "Obamamobile" are you kidding me?
happy holidays.
News flash: Obama needs to keep his day job thanks to Axelrod
As of 6:35 am:
Incumbent Republican Mark Kirk (1557 responses): 55.4%
Democratic challenger Dan Seals (676 responses): 24.1%
Democratic challenger Jay Footlik (576 responses): 20.5%
2809 total responses
TA,
My computer only allowed me to vote once so I think these are real people. The interesting thing is to wonder who are the people voting for Footlik? They are mainly pro-Israel Jewish Democrats who normally vote Kirk but finally have a candidate with a D after his name they can support.
When Dan beats Jay in the primary, a good chuck of that vote returns to Kirk -- especially since Jay has summed up the courage to tell his supporters and the media what we already knew, which is that Dan is weak on Israel and Iran.
Let's say a 1/4 of Footlik's support are these people (could be more). That means Kirk leads with more than 60% right now.
It's gonna be a fun ride to November, Dan.
Sparty
The more important issue is not who the Dem prez candidate is, but who is the Republican?
Huckabee--bad for GOP in IL.
McCain, Giuliani--probably good.
Romney--who knows?
And then if Bloomberg is running (possible if Huckabee or Giuliani gets the nomination) you have an additional factor.
Anon 7:19 -- new frame on the question: will the top of the ticket even matter?
Illinois is a blue state -- not in play and provides no motivation to either base to come out to "make a difference."
Dick Durbin has no serious opponent. Provides no motivation to either base to come out.
That leaves Kirk v. far-left DCCC talking point stooge. The Democrats already took the House -- and their national message will focus more on the Senate to be able to stop filibusters. The anger independent voters expressed was taken out in 2006 -- Iraq is going better, Bush is off the ballot, so who's going to be really that pissed off at Kirk?
Frankly, no matter who is on the top of the ticket for either side, Kirk has a major advantage in this election. First, the GOP base can be rallied to defend the seat -- a position of organizational strength Kirk did not enjoy last time because all eyes were focused on other races. Second, independents will know that the White House is going Democrat. The argument of maintaining some kind of check and balance (ironically the same argument used against Kirk in 2006) could sway them into Kirk's camp.
Food for thought.
I hate to poke holes in your theory, Sparty, but don't bet the farm on getting most of those Footlik folks into the Kirk camp come next Nov. 4. You're right when you say that these pro-Israel folks finally have, who they perceive as a good alternative on their side. But at the end of the day they are, for the most part, totally on the Dem side. Please don't be lulled by drinking the Kool Aid on this one.
WE know that Mark Kirk is great on issues having nothing to do with the security of Israel. WE know that he's a recognized LEADER on so many things benefitting this district including the just passed Impact Aid Bill. Only if everything Mark Kirk does that benefits our district, our state and the nation is out there through Town Hall meetings and mailings covering all the zip codes in this district will your prediction of 60% or more become reality. Look, Mr. Kirk went from 51% of the vote in his first run to nearly 70% two years later. He had almost 65% two years after that. He can and he will get back to what he has rightfully earned, but it's never easy.
So, Sparty, let's roll up our sleeves and work to get that number over 60%. Let's GRD.
Anon, I side with Sparty on this one. Sure, a majority of Footlik's supporters are hard-core Dems who just think he offers a better shot at Kirk. But there's no question that a good many are in this for the Jewish factor -- nice Jewish boy representing us in Washington is still better in their minds than a champion like Mark Kirk. It's sad but true. You see the same thing happen in the African-American community as well. That particular bloc of Footlik supporters are the crossover Dems who have in the past and might be swayed to once again vote for Kirk -- especially when Iran is AIPAC's top issue and the Democratic left is running away from the issue (see Ellen's blog for more on that).
For these voters, they will walk into the booth on Nov. 4th, take a deep breath and think, "If Iran really gets nukes, which guy do I want in Congress?" And they push Kirk instead of Seals.
Prediction: 57% for Kirk.
TH
Sparty and all- I tried it out and had no problem voting more than once. You simply have to close out your browser window and come back in.
This survey was kind of a fun little distraction, but I don't think the results really mean anything--if you look at the vote totals, almost all questions except for the 10th District question have under 1000 (mostly in the 800 vote range) responses, and the 10th District question along has more than 3000! I can't believe that a bunch of random voters happened along this survey and more than 2000 people decided to vote in the 10th District question and ignore the others.
If anything, I think the results before we did a post on the survey are probably the most "correct". Obviously, some true believers got a hold of the VOTE buttons and spent a lot of time pressing them.
Bless the trib but the Seals, Footlik and Kirk votes are all cooked. The Trib site allows multiple voting so the pajamas crowd has been active...
The orginal vote before the pajamas crowd took over was probably right -- 700 votes: Kirk 60%, Seals 30%, Footlik 10%.
One possible negative for IL-10 GOP turnout in 08 versus 06 is that you don't have as many lightning rod dems on the ballot to bring out GOP moderates. i.e the Toddler and Blago. Turnout was actually pretty impressive in 06. While many people feel positively about Mak Kirk, he's not going to get people fired up like the Toddler and Blago.
10:06:
R U Nutz? With Hillary on the ticket, no problem with turnout. Do you know a single Republican?
Also the Dem party peaked:
Blago - to be indicted
Madigan: Speaker Gridlock
Stroger: 24% of the vote here
Link: campaign team going to jail.
Things are looking up!
TA, This Internet thing can be overblown, particularly when it comes to unscientific online votes. Still, I think its very interesting that Footlik's supporters pushed his numbers to almost 50% beyond what Seals' supporters were able to do in the Tribune survey. That tells me that the Seals crowd may not have the zeal it once had, and that Footlik has momentum. I think we'll see poll results from Footlik in the next week or so that shows him within striking distance of Seals. And then its off to the races, my friend!
It’s fun to play with numbers.
The 10th Congressional race question had nearly three times the response as anything else. If you remove all Mark Kirk’s support, you still have more responses by about 500 than replies to any other question. When you eliminate the Footlik or Seals numbers, it becomes even more skewed.
So, TA, you started something and the pajama crew for all three candidates got involved. I’m not sure what it says about support, but it tells me Kirk has an excellent organization, Footlik’s is pretty good and Seals’ trails behind.
That will make a difference getting voters to the polls. I hope Footlik will sends Seals back to Jan Schakowsky and we will have a race between two candidates with brains. That will be refreshing for the district.
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