Monday, April 7, 2008

Green Candidate Back On Ballot in IL-10; Likely Good for 3 to 6 Net Points for Mark Kirk Over Dan Seals (UPDATED)

David Kalbfleisch is at it again. The 29-year-old former Green Party candidate, who was kicked off the November ballot by Dem operative (and right-hand man of State Senator Terry Link) "Sneaky" Pete Couvall, has resurfaced as the Green Party's nominee to fill the vacancy created when Kalbfleisch was booted as a result of the Dem petition challenge. Read more here.

All you Green folks, we're happy to have you, but please don't waste your breath telling us how Kalbfleisch will pull more voters from Mark Kirk than Dan Seals, or any such nonsense. To the extent there's a anti-Kirk vote in the 10th District (which is based almost exclusively on anti-war, anti-Bush sentiments), that's where the Greens will pull some votes, not from those who voted for Kirk in 2006. If you voted for Kirk in last cycle's nationwide GOP bloodbath, you're not changing your mind now. And, it was notably the Dems who got Kalbfleisch booted in the first place, although we wondered greatly at the time as to the real impact of this strategy, since as an established party, we all knew the Greens could appoint their guy back into the open slot. Thus, it seems pretty clear that the Dems were worried about the effect of the Green candidacy in IL-10.

What does this mean for the 10th District race? Probably a net loss of anywhere from 3 to 6 points from Dan Seals compared to Mark Kirk. If Seals keeps getting beaten up in the media over his character issues like Professor-gate, Kalbfleisch might do respectably well. At the very least, you can expect Kalbfleisch to also join the chorus of Seals critics, to further his own ends.

Thanks, Dave, and welcome back!

GREEN UPDATE: Here's a Green Party Blog I found that has a complete list of Green Party candidates that have been slated (60 in Illinois)--mostly congressional, but also a fair number of state and county-level candidates too. Not all that many here up in Lake County, although the Greens did slate someone in the 53rd District, which is held by incumbent Republican Sidney Mathias, who has a Dem opponent. This slating should help Sid by sucking away a few points from his opponent.

There is also a Green contender, Kathy Cummings, for the U.S. Senate, held by incumbent Dick 'what gang problem?' Durbin, who is opposed by GOP candidate Steven Sauerberg. Not sure how that will work out--don't know anything about Kathy Cummings, but unless she has $10 million like Durbin, it could be a longshot ;-) Finally, for the 8th CD, the Greens have put up a challenger, Iain Abernathy, from Round Lake Beach, who may help GOP challenger Steve Greenberg in his quest to unseat Melissa Bean. Generally, you don't like to see third-party candidates when you are trying to unseat an incumbent, but given the disparity between the Dems and GOP when it comes to where the Green Party sucks away the most votes, this could also be a big boost to Greenberg.

LAKE COUNTY'S MOST WANTED: As we reported earlier, Mark Kirk has been leading the charge to put away Lake County's most notorious gang members, while Dick Durbin is just getting up to speed on the problem. Take a look at the mugshots of the three nabbed so far (as well as those still at large), courtesy of WBBM. More over at the News-Sun.

MEANWHILE, IN THE 8th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Here's a nice write up from the Daily Herald on the 8th CD GOP candidate Steve Greenberg, who met with AP Government students at Mundelein High School. Incumbent Dem Congresswoman Melissa Bean has been invited but has not responded, according to the article. Way to go Steve- get 'em while they're young!

CHECK OUT BLOGNETNEWS.COM: Thanks to, which added the Team America 10th District Blog to its Blogroll over the weekend.


Anonymous said...

Team America said...

Anon 2:45, we already provided the link to Dave's campaign website in the post. At least put in a reason why we should vote for your guy if you're going to bother to comment.

Are all Dave's supporters as bright as you?

Anonymous said...

Kalbfleisch, and 3rd party candidates in general, stand to bring out people who ordinarily wouldn't vote. I wonder what kind of effect that will have.

Team America said...

A fair question, but if the majority of the Green voters are ones that would not have voted for Kirk or Seals anyway, it's a zero sum game as between the Dem and GOP candidates. So, "new" voters will have little or no effect on Kirk v. Seals, which in all objective reality is the only thing that matters from a practical persepctive.

I admire Dave's gumption, but I'm a strategist, not an idealist, so I'm most interested in who is actually going to win the election.

Anonymous said...

At least now one of the challengers against Kirk can say they live in the 10th district. Hint...It's not Dan.

Anonymous said...


Finally someone running who is from the district.

Dan Seals still lives in Schakowsky's district. At least our Dave lives in the 10th!

Anonymous said...

A bunch of Green candidates filed today according to the Board of Elections website. EBG must be having a conniption. How can anyone interfere with her pristine and perfect Democratic Party?!

Team America said...

Awesome. That giant sucking sound you hear is a bunch of Dem votes being siphoned away.

EBG is probably livid, but it's hard to tell, because outrage is the status quo over there. Not a lot of action in comments on that blog since she kicked Lou Atsaves off a couple weeks ago, but the same thing happened after she banned TA from her blog. I guess I have her to thank, though, for inspiring me to start this blog.

Anonymous said...

Hey, TA, I am delighted that you were bumped from that catwoman's daily tirades and started your own way for all of us to dialogue! Have you noticed that she's talking to herself? Next comes the padded cell when she realizes that Dan, Jan's "creation", now has to deal with Dave as well as Congressman Kirk in November!

Anonymous said...

Wait, I thought Kirk had all these great environmental group endorsements and high ratings. Maybe the votes being siphoned off will be his.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:05- No one that far left would vote for Kirk anyway, this only hurts Seals.

Anonymous said...

So does Seals get Couvall to challenge the Green Party guy before or after Couvall gets indicted?

Anonymous said...

On the margins this is good. We need to get him some people so he can start whacking Dan.

Right now the focus should be on defining Dan as Blago/Stroger light by hitting him on his lack of a job, out of town fundraising, lobbyist ties.

That puts him on defense where we need him. Also I am more and more encouraged that this election will be less focused on Bush. If that's the case and we define Dan NOW, it's worth 5-7 points to Mark.

Anonymous said...

So with Jan Schakowsky dropping broad hints that she would love to be appointed to replace Senate Barak Obama if he gets elected President, does this mean that Dan Seals will then be appointed to replace Jan Schakowsky in the district he lives in?


Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

TA, while I agree Green Party voters usually pull from the Democrats, if I am voting as a one-issue environmental voter, Mark Kirk is my choice. Other than a very few errant votes in 2005, Mark’s environmental record is pristine.

Few environmental voters with a brain are going to abandon Mark for the unknown Dave Kalbfleisch. Perhaps he will take a few votes from Seals for those seeking someone further to the left than the pup. My guess is Kalbfleisch will have little impact.

I did get a chuckle out of Lou’s suggestion that Seals replace “Sen.” Schakowsky. However, no one is appointed to fill a Congressional seat. There is a special election like we had in the 14th.

Should Seals run in a 9th primary, he would be trounced by one of the real politicians there like Jeff Schoenberg or Larry “I love regressive taxes that hurt local merchants” Sufferdin who have been patiently waiting their turn.

Anonymous said...

There's a Green candidate running in the 8th now too. His name is Iain Abernathy, and he was the Moderate Party candidate the Dems also succeeded in removing from the primary.

Anonymous said...

TA, Anon 11:29 is accurate when stating that nobody is appointed to fill a House seat. A special election would be required and there are several in line WAY ahead of old Dan. As for Jan being a Senator, the very thought has me running for a double dose of extra strength pain killers. HELP! I think Blago would have to consider many other options.