Now that Roland Burris seems to be the de facto new junior senator from Illinois, the debate is already raging as to Burris' chances in 2010 (if he should run), and the likely GOP contender(s). As we've been following closely, GOP congressmen Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam have been making the list of almost every pundit who has addressed this issue. Today, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post said on his blog that:
If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges.
Cillizza notes that Kirk could face a primary challenge from Roskam, but as Roskam just won a coveted spot on the House Ways and Means Committee, TA's money's says he stays put and focuses on his House job, for now.
We like Peter Roskam here, but we think Kirk has the better chance statewide. What to do about keeping the 10th District has been worrying me of late, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
UPDATED: Here's $0.02 from John Fund, who is a Wall Street Journal editorial writer, weighing in on Mark Kirk's chances. Athough, contrary to the article, I don't think Mark has $5 million left in his campaign funds at the moment, though it won't take long to replenish the war chest.
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3 comments:
It's still really early but 2010 doesn't look like a GOP year yet, and so the White House, DNC, and DSCC will focus on keeping this seat like their life depends on it. Mark will have to decide if a state gop in a serious funk and a determined national democratic party is really the geography he wants to risk his entire career on.
My bet says he is smart and will pass. Burris is a tool, but the Democrats will not give this seat away-see refusal to have special election. Peter Roskam's far right stuff isn't even popular in the GOP right now, and he'll be slammed as a Bush clone.
Mark is also now with Zach Wamp's retirement and others in the offing set most likely to be a ranking member in the next session of congress where he will be able to control the purse strings on anywhere from $30-80 billion of federal policy. That's a lot of power to give up for a long shot bid. As well Norm Coleman just spent something like $20 million in Minnesota, which is not close to being as big as Illinois so Mark has about a year to come up with $15-20 million baseline to compete. That kind of fundraising will take a lot of time away from the district where he could still be looking at a major challenge again.
FOKLAES
FOLKAES,
You'll have to remember that Illinois will lose a Congressional seat or two after the census in 2010. The Dems will most likely change the 10th and make it much harder for Cong. Kirk to win in 2012. The Senate may be his best shot for staying in office past Jan. 2013.
They said the same thing in 2000 when Mark was a freshman on the budget committee and zero seniority. I also feel the democrats realize that Illinois has no clout in the House right now and that they are better off screwing with Roskam and Biggert and trying to solidify their gains by knocking Mark off and making bean more vulnerable.
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