Well, now that Roland "Tombstone" Burris has been officially welcomed to the U.S. Senate (by the same Senate Democrats who turned him out into the rain just last week, but hey, all is now forgiven, guys), speculation turns to whether Burris will run in 2010 to retain the seat for a six-year term, and also whether he will face a primary challenge. Once all that is considered, it's time to think about who the Dem nominee might face on the GOP side.
People are now speculating a bit more strongly that Burris may face an inter-party challenge in 2010, but some are not convinced. Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (IL-9) wants us to remember that she really, really wanted that seat when Blago was trying to sell it (although I have not seen anyone seriously suggest yet that Schakowsky offered or was offered anything for it) and she still apparently really, really wants it, as she appears open to considering a primary run against Burris, per Politico.
Will Burris even run? I have to believe he will, unless his health fails or he makes a supreme gaff or gaffs in the next few months that convince him (and his supersized ego) that he can't possibly win even the primary. After all, he appeared to completely resist overtures by the U.S. Senate Dem leadership that offering to limit his appointment to only one term might be a way to overcome the Dem's objections to seating Burris. Burris never gave in, and Harry Reid and Dick Durbin blinked. So I would give better than even money that Burris will be in the race.
Turning to the GOP, we all know that 10th District Congressman Mark Kirk has been mulling this seat, and it seems clear that if a special election had been held, he would have dived in, as it would have meant he did not have to quit his day job in Congress.
Chris Cillizza at Washingtonpost.com implies that GOP leadership is still trying to convince Kirk to run in 2010, but I'm not sure if Cillizza means state GOPers, national leadership, or both.
So, could this set us up for a Kirk vs. Schakowsky battle in 2010? This would pit a raging liberal female Dem against a moderately liberal GOP opponent. Kirk will no doubt have some trouble with some of the right-wing purists, especially if he's challenged in a primary. But if he survived, he'd probably have more state-wide appeal than a liberal Chicago Dem like Schakowsy and her convicted felon husband Bob Creamer. That ain't gonna play well in Peoria (literally).
Some commentors here have questioned Kirk's ability to raise enough money, especially with the Team Obama apparatus lurking in the background. A valid concern, but Kirk's fundraising prowess is well-proven; it's just a case of applying that on a larger scale.
Should Kirk run? I'm not yet convinced, mostly because we need him here in the 10th (I know, I'm selfish). But if he does, we'll be in his corner here and support him every step of the way.
At least if Schakowsy runs, Dan Seals could run for her seat in the 9th District (where he's at least a resident), and maybe we'd finally get him out of our hair here in the 10th CD.
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7 comments:
TA, it's too cold outside for me to contend with the cold chill that has run down my spine at the thought of a Jan vs Mark Kirk Senate run in 2010. I put nothing past her convicted felon louse of a husband, Bob Creamer. He and she will not play well in Peoria or in other parts of our State. That aside, you don't really think that the Democrat machine would just roll over and allow an easy run by our Congressman. It won't happen.
The ability of the ever present Obama fundraising machine to keep up the momentum is something to consider. Yes, the Kirk fundraising team is amazing, ready to jump back into action at a moment's notice. It will take a minimum of 40 million to make this kind of state-wide race a reality.
It's too cold outside today to even think about all of this. I'm for pulling the warm covers over my head and taking a long day's nap. At least for today.
Folks at the NRSC already have a full file on Schokowsky's husband, Robert Creamer, his felony convictions and long federal rap sheet. Remember, Creamer was convicted for tax evasion on a form cosigned by Congressowman Schakowksy - his current wife.
Rolks in the Senate campaign committee would be thrilled to see a Schakowsky candidacy given how corrupt her husband is and how easy it will be to connect them to Rod Blagojevich.
We may not even have to expose Schakowsky's major Fall effort to raise money for Blagojevich's legal defense fund or her transcripts in the FBI tapes.
What fun.
Creamer's voice will show up in the FBI tapes too.
1.The national Republicans are going to have 20 seats to defend next year including several open seats in areas that have better state parties apparatuses and that are far less expensive than illinois. That means Mark can't count on the $7 million they usually give. Incumbents come first for them.
2. I still don't see an Illinois Democrat White House allowing itself to be embarrassed nationally by losing Obama's own seat. The reprucussions would be as bad if not worse than when Democrats lost Daschles seat.
3. This is still a state party in major disarray that can't send out press releases without misspellings.
4. Porter never went statewide because North Shore Republicans are far more liberal than the rest of the state. Mark needs to win the Right big, and there's no telling how receptive they will be to his pro-gay,anti-gun,pro-abortion record in the senate where you vote on those issues for supreme court and other things. At the senate level, he'll take major heat from the christian right that he hasn't had to deal with before.
5. He has one year from right now before he starts getting pummeled on t.v. and emails by democrats. So that's 1 year to raise as much money as he's raised in the last 10 combined. There isn't a huge moderate GOP constituency, Obama will freeze a lot of money downtown, and Obama hasn't pissed off enough people yet for the GOP to be hungry for an alternative.
6. Mark is 50 and if he stays in the house with the retirements, in the next term he'll have a lot of power for a Republican, which will only increase as things go along. It's a reason to stay.
Tough stuff.
FOKLAES
We have even more on Creamer that has not come out yet. He has many ex-employees that are not his friends. Really hope Jan Schakowsky is the nominee - she will look like rod in drag after we finish with Creamer.
I doubt that the press would report on Creamer, they barely did during his trial and much of the reporting excused his bank fraud. I agree that it could be easy to campaign against Janice (save the large money issue) but by 2010 the press would assume that the world has forgotten about Creamer and it would fall to the Republicans and the alternative press to get the word out.
Wipe off the Blago Smirk - Vote Kirk 2010
A good opposition (oppo) research book on a federal candidate will run about 150 pages, minimum. Comrade Jan will no doubt have a panzer division of feminazi hacks ready to call sexism when these attacks on bob creamer come and they won't be enough.
36 Hours and most Illinoisans won't have a single Republican leader at any level whatsoever.
Game on Andy McKenna!
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