During my usual morning read (News-Sun, Tribune, Herald and the WSJ), I came across two articles that both addressed the question "Has the GOP hit rock bottom?" Karl Rove in the WSJ and Jim Tankersley in the Chicago Tribune each look at the recent victory of the Democrats in the special election in Mississippi for Congress, and point to the upset victory of Democrat Travis Childers in a solidly Republican congressional district. Just like the Oberweis race here in the 14th District, the national GOP spent a ton of precious cash trying to keep what should have been a 'safe' seat. And, with the upset in Mississippi, that makes three losses in special elections for the GOP.
So, what's going on? Has the GOP really hit 'rock bottom'?
My first answer to that was, hell no!
Then I thought, wait, does that mean worse is ahead? Is the better answer that we HAVE hit rock bottom? Well, simply to have to ask the question is not good.
One of the reasons the GOP is in this pickle is that it lost its message and core principles of fiscal conservatism. In fact, many people think the reason the Dems have been successful of late in some of these special elections is that they have run candidates that are actually to the right of the GOP candidates in some respects. As the WSJ stated today in its editorial,"The Republican Panic,"
Democrats have settled on a formula of running as cultural conservatives in GOP districts, and as economic populists on "fiscal discipline," trade protection, corporate bashing, and "middle-class tax cuts" paid for by taxes on the rich. If Republicans can't trump that message with an agenda of low taxes, health-care affordability and portability, jobs and stable prices, they will be routed again in November.
However, there is good reason for hope. First, at least here in Illinois, we have the leadership of Mark Kirk. "The critical challenge before both parties is to articulate a 21st Century agenda," Kirk told the Tribune. The Illinois State GOP is showing the glimmerings of life, having just rolled out its "Agenda for Illinois." More on this to come.
Also, it looks like the fall election could be focused, at least in Illinois, on the Blagojevich administration and possible indictment, impeachment, recall or who knows what. Even if Barack "Sweetie" Obama is at the top of the Dem ticket, it is my theory that the Dems will count Illinois as safe, and empty the state by sending every Barack supporter elsewhere to drum up votes in other states.
Sadly, many Republicans in Illinois, like crabs in a bucket, keep dragging each other down when they try to climb out. The Conservatives are convinced that the answer is to run candidates that are more conservative (to get back to bedrock GOP principles), while the moderates are equally convinced that the only way to win elections is to run more moderate candidates (to appeal to a broader base and changing viewpoints of the electorate).
Yet, again, there is hope. In Lake County, from what I've seen lately, there are signs of these two GOP groups coming together. I am hopeful that we will all stand behind our great crop of new candidates, including Steve Greenberg, Dan Duffy, Keith Gray, Dan Sugrue, and Tim Stratton. The Lake County Dems will have their own hands full defending their seats in the midst of ties to Blago, Stroger and Terry Link (and his petition scandals).
I'm certainly not ready to throw in the towel yet, and we have a long time until the election. More than enough time for the GOP to bounce back from the "bottom," if they choose.
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14 comments:
Well TA, I'm about ready to throw in the towel. I've been watching CSpan and the disgraceful way Pelosi and Obey will ram thru the Supplemental, the largest in history, with an up or down vote. Never in history has a Supplemental this large been voted on in this manner. And this is how to run our country? So much is in that Supplemental, as you know. If Pelosi and Obey have nothing to fear and nothing to hide, why not let our elected representatives have open debate, add or delete items that we simply can't afford. Yes, there are some good provisions in that Supplemental. Others are highly questionable, to be sure.
Oh yes, on that catwoman's blog where she's ripping into Mark Kirk for his vote that will take food from hungry kids. How about asking her to go and ask Melissa Bean the same question. She voted exactly the way Mark Kirk voted. No wonder this 110th Congress has the worst approval rating in our nation's history.
We need to move away from the "gotcha" politics the Democrats employ in Washington (and Springfield) and identify the issues that concern the electorate and offer intelligent solutions to them. Where do we stand on issues that matter to them?
Years ago people were asking if the Democrats were a viable political party, especially in Illinois.
It reminds me of what I learned in Sunday School: You have two ears and one mouth because it is twice as important to listen instead of speaking.
Time to listen. Time to pay attention. Time to adapt. Time to stop complaining that no one is listening or voting for us and try to figure out WHY this is happening.
Louis G. Atsaves
Posted on the "other" blog in case it gets mysteriously deleted:
________
"Mark always hated feeding children."
You of course know this for a fact because you have talked to Mark Kirk personally about this and he has told you in no uncertain terms that he always hated feeding children?
Clearly such conversation never took place.
In this great country of ours people go hungry. No one is proud of that. But solutions to the problem need to be intelligently created AND intelligently funded.
The current rigid partisanship "gotcha" political climate in Congress will have to end in order for this to occur. But so far all I have really seen out of this Congress is repeated "gotcha!" "gotcha!" "gotcha!" Adding more "gotcha" types to Congress (by electing Dan Seals) will only exacerbate this nonsense. What is the purpose of such behavior? To further the lives of those living in the U.S. or to throw mudballs at your political opponents?
It must take guts to buck these types of "gotcha" bills. And it look likes Kirk has the guts to do it.
When I see some major initiative come out of this Democratic Party controlled Congress, I will stand up and applaud. What is coming out of Congress these days is just "gotcha" nonsense.
Louis G. Atsaves
Maybe the Republican vs Democrat, conservative vs liberal divisions are going through a welcomed transformation (and burial).
There have been people complaining how government is evil, yet they run for government office and they make darn sure that government doesn't work.
There have been people claiming that government is the solution to all our problems, yet they create unworkable solutions that are worse than the original problems.
Maybe this is pointing to a movement toward finding the most effective moderates to represent us -- people who not only see there is a responsible role for government and that it can do good things, but also want to make sure that our government is truly responsible to the people and that it should avoid doing bad things.
Does this describe Mark Kirk?
Sounds a whole lot like our Congressman to me, possible future. We know we can count on Mr. Kirk to not employ the 'gotcha' style politics that Lou speaks about. And Loud is right on target. Our guy cares about bi-partisanship as proven by his legislative initiatives.
Today was a disgraceful spectacle on the floor of US House - the People's House. Pelosi and company are shameful in their tactics never before seen in this manner. And who suffers? The American people. I'm not counting on the "leadership" in DC headed by Pelosi or the "leadership" in Springfield headed by Rod and his cronies, to address real needs of real people. Mark Kirk stands head and shoulders above these folks but I fear he's standing pretty much alone.
The answer is maybe-the bottom could fall out, Obama wins 35 states and Republicans in congress are reduced to 170 members. On the other hand, we could get our shit together, get the quality messaging that we had 2000-2004, back and pull an upset. It's going to be one or the other.
House and state leadership has to go, now. The formula from the house has not changed since 2006. In 2006, leadership's game plan was stupid cultural votes and ken mehlman's microtargeting. That sounds good at the capitol hill club, but it doesn't fly in the districts where people are struggling with the economy, hate the war ect.
The democrats are about to nominate their most liberal presidential nominee in a generation, the state democrats can't stay out of the courthouse-which should be an easy time to fire people up just by having them read the newspaper, and yet they can't do anything.
I think McCain and what's left of our political talent nationally has the ability to change things but I am deeply deeply skeptical of the house gop. Many of those members and aides were not the rockstars that used to kick the democrats tails, but rather the lower level people during our reign and so there by default rather than skill.
Either way we need new ideas, a new message, and new leadership.
I was at the Capitol Hill Club yesterday and, believe me, nothing sounded too good!
I agree with Lou that the answer is not making demagogues of Speaker Pelosi and the Democrats, but in making some tough decisions to reframe the GOP brand. Right now, Republicans are the same obstructionists they described Democrats as only a few years ago.
It's too bad no one took Kirk's Suburban Agenda seriously. Stripped of the partisan stuff, I thought he had a very creative approach that would resonate in a lot of areas.
Or maybe Republicans are just more comfortable being the minority party.
Looks like Kirk's Suburban Agenda is coming back big time
I think the Republicans need to get back to the basics - in Illinois and in Washington.
Good government starts at the fiscal level and in Illinois today, our fiscal situation is a fiasco and everyone agrees. Republicans need to do a better job at blaming the fiasco on ALL Democrats. Madigan and Emil both supported another term of "pay to play on steroids" with Blagojevich. Every Lake County Dem supported Madigan, Emil and Blago. Just imagine the outrage if Republicans controlled the House, Senate, Governor's Mansion and the Supreme Court TODAY. What would the headlines say?
The reality is we need a change at the top: Blago, Emil and Mastermind Madigan have ALL got to go for Illinois to be fixed. All three are experts at feeding at the trough at the expense of each of US TAXPAYERS.
BOTTOM LINE: What do you call someone who continues to vote for candidates that take money allocated for pensions and use it for pork, pay bills 1 year late, raise taxes, chase corporations out of the state? I'd call the stupid. Be smart - Vote Straight Republican this November
Anon 11:23 I would hope that smart people vote for the PERSON and not the party in every election. In the 10th district I feel that it has to be our message, loud and clear. Republicans are going to get attacked for everything, including rainy days and Mondays. We need to show the accomplishments, the strengths of Mark Kirk to help him hold onto this seat in November. I'm hearing seemingly intelligent people say that they're going to vote a straight D ticket because nobody who's a Republican can be returned to office. When I get into a discussion and talk about all that Mr. Kirk has done for all of us they do stop for a second or two. We have a steep hill ahead of us. It's going to take everyone knowing the facts, getting out there and getting our voters to vote in November.
The GOP has ample positive ammunition for its platform. A few examples:
-English should be the official language of government.
-Every worker should continue to have the right to a federally supervised secret ballot election when deciding whether to organize a union.
-Keeping the reference to “One Nation Under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance is very important.
-Congress should make it a crime to advocate acts of terrorism, violent conduct, or the killing of innocent people in the United States.
-Illegal immigrants who commit felonies should be deported.
-The option of a single rate system should give taxpayers the convenience of filing their taxes with just a single sheet of paper.
These are just a few winning policy options that Republicans can support.
Only true Indepedents should ever be voting for person over party. The primary is the fight for Republicans. Some you lose, some you win. Once fall comes, real Republicans need to vote the straight ticket.
Hear hear, Anonymous 1:02pm, the GOP should stand up for our core values ...
--Firearms are a right, not a privilege
--Abortion should be illegal
--Homosexual marriage should not be permitted
--Public money cannot be spent on stem cells
Mark Kirk has undermined the Constitution and proposes New Deal era policies for the subprime situation. Is that a Republican?
The green candidate is proposing a flat tax. Where's Kirk when it comes the fiscal conservatism, samll government, and the free market? Does Seals even have a position other than, "I'm not Mark Kirk!"?
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