Friday, February 19, 2010

CQ Politics Moves IL-10 from "Leans Democratic" to "Tossup"; Momentum Favors GOP Candidate Bob Dold

In a rather stunning, but perhaps predictable (given the trend of national politics right now) development, CQ Politics has moved IL-10, which heavily favored President Obama in the prior election, to "Tossup" from "Leans Democratic." As we all know, this is an open seat because 5-term Congressman Mark Kirk is running for the U.S. Senate.

From CQ:

Eighteen races are rated as “Tossups,” meaning that they have no clear favorite. CQ Politics moved three Democratic-held districts into this group: Michigan’s 7th, held by freshman Rep. Mark Schauer ; Mississippi’s 1st, represented by Rep. Travis W. Childers ; and New Hampshire’s 2nd, which Rep. Paul W. Hodes is giving up to run for Senate.

The only Republican-held seat in this grouping is the Illinois district of Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who is running for Senate. CQ Politics originally gave Democrats a slight edge to win the seat but now sees no clear favorite between businessman Bob Dold (R) and Dan Seals (D), who lost to Kirk in 2006 and 2008.

While Seals may have started out with more name recognition, his poor showing in the Dem primary (he beat out State Rep. Julie Hamos by under 1000 votes) and his lack of appeal as a candidate already appears to be loosing him ground among the prognosticators like CQ Politics who make a living following these sorts of things. Good news for Bob Dold, who knows he's got his work cut out for him, but this will certainly give him and his campaign a shot in the arm. Let's see some polling next!


Political Pro said...

Way to misread the article TA! It specifically states that the change is due to the national atmosphere. There has been no polling or any metric of any kind that has come out to suggest that Bob Dold has done anything to narrow the gap. CQ isn't basing this move based on any information that can be analyzed, rather they've opted to move an open seat in a purple district to a more favorable category for Republicans simply because it is a purple district at the congressional level.

Team America said...

"Pro", I beg to differ. It seems you are implying that the good folks at CQ just did a blanket bump up in all congressional districts across the land (without looking at any of the metrics of any individual races) because of the national environment.

From the article:

"All but four of the changes upgrade the prospects for Republicans — another sign of the challenge facing Democrats in November and the fact that the party’s hold on the House has grown less secure."

One would assume that if your theory were correct, they would have given the GOP a bump up in EVERY race.

CQ also sounded fairly familiar with the specifics of the IL-10 race itself:

"The only Republican-held seat in this grouping is the Illinois district of Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who is running for Senate. CQ Politics originally gave Democrats a slight edge to win the seat but now sees no clear favorite between businessman Bob Dold (R) and Dan Seals (D), who lost to Kirk in 2006 and 2008."

"Pro," maybe it's you who needs to go back and re-read the article.

Adam Smith said...

For a "political pro" you are pretty ignorant of how CQ, et al analyze races. They also gather intel from a network of contacts who provide them with local information on how the various campaigns are operating.

Dold ran a surprisingly adept campaign and showed an ability to tap into the top echalons of GOP fundraising during the primary. Yes, the fact that Seals couldn't win in two Dem landslide years and now the national trend is decidedly in the other direction is the major factor, but you should know that real professionals like those at CQ and Charlie Cook (who also rates IL-10 a Toss Up) do a lot more than rate races based on national trends.

Anonymous said...

as "pro" says, the article specifically states (and TA's quote from the article reinforces pro's point, not TA's) that this is part of what they see as a current (as in this minute) national trend. given that the 10th hasn't seen a socially conservative representative in the last 30 years, dold definitely has his work cut out for him. the district may be purple, but the conservative aspects of voters' views are fiscal, not social. anyone who's heard or seen dold knows how right wing he is, no matter what he says or what TA would have you believe. it's hard to imagine an anti-choice (and he is) candidate winning in the 10th.

Publia said...

Yes, I am remembering all those Democrats sent to Congress from this area for so many, many years, all of whom won so handily.

I think the call is bad and should be "Leans Republican."

Anonymous said...

National atmosphere is everything. Pup was only competitive with Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) because the national environment was historically awful for republicans. This reminds me a lot of the 1970's post watergate when mikva gave porter a bath (pun intended) a few times before sanity prevailed and the district reverted to form.

Dold is basically mcsweeney with perhaps a little bit more cleverness to him. Any shot he has here he owes to mark. We'll see what happens.


Publia said...

If I remember correctly, members of the Dold family helped Mark Kirk get on the ballot for Congress in his first election. Remember that primary? Dolds and North Shore Republican politics predate Mark Kirk by quite some time.

Anonymous said...

Dold is pro-choice, and is not a social conservative.

Anonymous said...

dold is a precinct committeeman in winnetka, one of 4,000 in the district. He's not exactly the karl rove of the north shore. Richard Williamson, a former ambassador and top reagan aide who lives in winnetka is a far bigger hitter. Dold couldn't carry his bags when it comes to dc clout.

dold worked for dan burton and dan quayle whose religious right drove porter out of office and this district out of gop hands.


Anonymous said...

A bit of a correction, foklaes. Tom DeLay had more to do with the departure of John Porter. He had literally had all he could tolerate with DeLay and his hammer tactics. Remember? After 21 years, and while Porter rose to become Chair of the more than powerful Labor Health and Human Services Subcmte of Appropriations, he just could no longer tolerate the bitterness and the extraordinary nastiness of this guy and his team. And that opened the door for Mark Kirk. Robert Dold is all we have, foklaeps, so it behooves us to get behind him and do everything possible to help him win. I know that's not going to please you, but we need to make this happen.

Anonymous said...

Big surprise, Folkeas gets yet another thing wrong.

Anonymous said...

FOKLAEAPS had murphy, mckenna and young hastert getting flogged, all were favorites and all were predicted by foklaeaps to get destroyed. which thankfully they were. Porter wasn't term limited on his chairmanship of hhs approps, he saw gash coming, had spent 4 years fighting with the RSC and newt and said I'm done. Tom DeLay didn't become a force until after mark was elected and he wouldn't have been able to touch porter. DeLay's whip team was not that bad and they had enough moderates back then where they didn't need porter's vote on everything.

I have retired the term dolt, so yes dold is all we have, but no republican gets a free pass anymore, except for team america and king louis and mrs. team and baxters mom and thunder dan segrue and keith gray and fightin tim stratton.


Anonymous said...

Wow, in a race of 10 or so people fro governor, you picked one of them to lose. Wow and double wow.

Anonymous said...

Foklaes, thanks for your vote. Now we just have to meet you and thank you in person.

Baxter and Beau's Mom

Anonymous said...

Mckenna was considered the favorite by the media and spent a ton of his inherited money and won the ntro endorsement. He and murphy and hastert went down as I predicted because moderates (like mark kirk) and conservatives (like our team party comrades) alike are sick and tired of established big government republicans who are really only in this for power and could care less about the diehard activists like team america and all of you. Read the tribune editorial this morning against his father which I am said to say takes a swipe at a really good man familiar to suburban republicans. I voted for proft out of protest at the establishment.

I will vote for dold with a d for defeat dan seals in the fall. He was apparently on fox news or abc this morning and from what I heard did very very well. Apparently he said he will raise 5 million dollars in 9 months. It took mark 8 years to raise that kind of money and that was when the economy was not in a recession.


Anonymous said...

Simmer down, Foklaeps. Mark raised 5.3 million dollars for the 2008 campaign because each cycle the cost to run a campaign get higher. Mr. Kirk's team assesses the need in each cycle and gets out and gets it done. It just so happens that in the last cycle it was necessary to raise and to spend that kind of money. It's sad but true. Ask those who used to be involved in the Porter years. Raising 250K was considered a huge windfall, and it was. Give me those days again, gladly. It didn't take Mr. Kirk 8 years to raise 5 million dollars. The campaign has raised what was needed to win in the past 5 cycles. The Senate campaign has way surpassed 5 million now and the big push is just beginning. Mr. Dold is right in saying he'll need to raise that kind of cash. If he asked me, I would tell him he'll need closer to 6 by November 2. Regardless of the money, Foklaeps, Mr. Dold MUST WIN and he needs our help. The thought of Seals representing the 10th District makes my head spin. We just need to keep a focus and pull together. We have no alternatives.

Anonymous said...

While it's not a huge issue, FOKLAEPS, Conservatives would probably prefer not to be called "comrades". The first definition that comes to mind when the term is used is generally reserved for lefties.

Anonymous said...

In all the arguing around here, let me toss out something for consideration:

1. Seals is an "old" face in the 10th, now on his third try for office. Seals' platform hasn't changed much at all in over 5 years now. (Going back to when he first announced.) The nation, the 10th and the world in the meantime, have changed.

2. The public is looking for someone new who can push things forward.

3. Dold has phenomenal speaking abilities and can hold live audiences. He is the new fresh face in the 10th. He is a good fundraiser and ran a good primary campaign to win.

Dold is a solid bet to win this fall.

Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

sorry about the use of the term comrade. so many lefties running around I forget who's on our side.

5 million by november is about 200k a week. If he can do it, all the better, but remember mark's biggest fundraiser of the year was mccain at 500k. It took dold with a d for defeat dan seals 6 months to raise 500k.

it would be nice for dold to call on dan to release his taxes. Both team america and i would love to know how one affords to live in wilmette these days on no salary for 6 years. is he back to using campaign funds to pay for his family? a new fictitious job?


Anonymous said...


I agree with your assessment - this is not an easy district and dold is no kirk - not by a long shot.

He is a social conservative, earning him the Right to Life endorsement in the primary - deal with it.

He cannot buy, borrow or steal the military background, service and intelligence of Kirk. And he's certainly no Scott Brown.

If the GOP thinks this is a slam dunk they're nuts but that's been a consistent problem with the GOP...