Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Bob Dold Will Have the Right Message in IL-10

Businessman Bob Dold knows he has his work cut out for him in the race to succeed outgoing Congressman Mark Kirk, who is the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate.

The Daily Herald caught up with Dold at this morning's Republican Unity Breakfast, which was a standing-room-only event that featured many, many GOP nominees and primary candidates for offices from U.S. Senate to State Representative.

"We're going to have to work very hard and that means go, go, go," he told the Daily Herald today.

The DH also asked Team America to help analyze the Dold matchup with two-time loser Dan Seals, given that Mark Kirk is no longer the incumbent in this seat.

Though perhaps not as moderate as Kirk, Dold, a Kenilworth resident and president of a pest control company, has the values that will be important to voters in November, observers say.

"He knows what it's like to sign the front of the check, not just the back of the check," said Larry Falbe, a Mettawa trustee and author of the Team America's 10th District blog.

"He's got the right message. He'll be all about lowering taxes and creating jobs."

I also gave the DH my take on Dan Seals as the Dem candidate, although it didn't make it into the story. Basically, I told the DH that the GOP was pleased that Seals was the candidate, as opposed to Julie Hamos. Seals has a thin resume, which he has tried to puff up in the past (but was caught in the act), and few accomplishments. His primary credential for running for Congress is that he ran for Congress twice before (never the mind the fact that he's a lousy campaigner). Despite his third try for this seat, he's never even bothered to move into the 10th District. And we could go on and on, as we've done in the past, but we'll save the tedium for right now.

In sum, not only is Seals a known quantity, who could not prevail even while trying to ride the coattails of now-President Barack Obama, he hasn't seemingly done anything else of note since we last looked at Seals in November 2008, when Kirk whooped him last time.

Certainly, we'll have a lot less research to do on Seals than we would have with Hamos. Frankly, there's just not much to look at with Seals -- he really is the epitome of an 'empty suit.'

I think Dold is correct that IL-10 is going to be a national race, so fasten your seatbelts, campers. This one will be wild.


Anonymous said...

Great synopsis, TA.

As you've so rightly said, it's time for us all to drop the sniping and the bickering, and focus on retaining the 10th District in Republican hands.

Keep up the great work.

Fielding Mellish

Trebor in Libertyville said...

I totally agree with my newly met friend Fielding Mellish.

We need to keep the 10th REPUBLICAN in November and build momentum for GOP victories all over the great state of Illinois.

I can only add that Bob Dold will out work and out campaign anyone in the 10th as he has already proven.

Trebor in Libertyville

Anonymous said...

I am going to bed. But I disagree. There's not much new on dan for the nrcc to find, I'd run a weekly hit on weeks since he started running that he hasn't lived in the district. Dold's company is going to get vetted as is he, his voting record will come up, perhaps lawsuits, pissed off employees, they will bring rats into this. That will be most of the new stuff. We'll see a lot of standard bushgop versus stroger democrat. If I was dold I wouldn't debate seals because pup is much more experienced at this.

On the plus side dold has 9 long months to build name id. longer than pup had in 2006 and blagos failure and mark at the top give him a much better shot than anyone has had here since 2002 and maybe longer.

even I sleep.


Anonymous said...

Maybe the DH didn't think what you had to say made a lot of sense. Most Dems wanted to run against Dold, since he is far to the right of district voters. Republicans can refer to him as an entrepreneur, but the business he's running was not something he, or even his parents, created - it was his grandparents. He is slick, but his positions on issues are scary to moderates. And using childish names like "pup" just confirms your lack of rational analysis and hurts your credibility. It's hard to take some of the reasonable things you say seriously.

Team America said...

I'm a moderate Republican and I'm completely fine with Dold and his positions. I am confident that the Dems will try to paint Dold as a fire-breathing right-winger, just as they did with Mark Kirk for 8 years (remember Kirk=Bush?). The voters in IL-10 didn't buy it with Kirk and they won't buy it with Dold.

I'm not sure I would agree that most Dems wanted to run against Coulson. While she had a legislative record that could be attacked, unlike Seals, she has actually accomplished much in her professional career, so I think the contrast would have been pretty stark. On the other hand, Dold doesn't have a record as a legislator to attack, and neither does Seals, so that's a zero-sum game. As much as I like and respect Beth, few people thought that she was a more dynamic candidate than Dold, and that will serve him well on the trail.

As FOKLAEAPS points out, even if Seals starts off with more name ID than Dold, Dold has 9 months to build it, which could happen pretty quickly if he drives to his campaign events in his big bus every day ;-)

Add in the District's favorite son Kirk at the top of the ballot for U.S. Senate, running against a 33-year-old mob banker, and the clear dissatisfaction with President Obama (count Virginia, New Jersey, Massachusetts), I REALLY like our chances this fall.

Repeat after me: Pup! Pup! Pup!

I think I just got a shiver up my leg.

Anonymous said...

The national Democrats have already put out several press releases trying to link Dold to "the failed policies of George Bush" and the "failed policies of tax cuts" and are trying to "define" him as a "Tea Partier."

There is a shocker! (sarcasm fully intended) Democrats trying to "define" everyone who is Republican as crazy, lunatics and extremists from the off the charts right wing so that they can appear to be "normal" by comparison.

According to the Democratic spin machine, every single person in the 10th who is a Republican is such a crazy lunatic.

That is the Democratic national effort to try to distract Mr. Voter from the failed policies of Obama, Pelosi and Reid both nationally and on the domestic front. Failed policies which they will never admit are failing. And anyone who doesn't think that their policies across the board both nationally and domestic haven't been a stunning success is well, just plain stupid!

OK, call me stupid! (I've been called worse).

To that I can only rally every single Republican with:

"Lunatics of the 10th! Unite!"

Or "Lunatics for Dold (with a D)!"

Actually the Dold campaign slogan best hits the nail on the head: "LET'S GET TO WORK!"

Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

Truth be told, I have know Dold since high school...To paint him as a "fire-breathing" nut is laughable. He's one of the most genuine, honorable, and decent people I have ever known. I agree with you, TA. Let them try. It won't work.

(I read the Dem press release this morning...funny, funny stuff)

Bob will outwork Seals, guaran-damn-tee it. And what's more, when he's out there meeting people and shaking hands, they will get a sense that he is the real-deal.

It's gonna be a fun 9 months.

And Lou is right...

Let's get to work!

Fielding Mellish

Anonymous said...

Where can I find this Press Release from the Dems? I'd love to read it!

Anonymous said...

I'm still a little suspicious. 10th District moderates generally don't get the endorsements of people like Penny Pullen and Don Castella.
Whatever Dold has to say to moderates and independents to convince them he is one of them will only serve to anger the sociall conservatives he was able to persuade in the primary that he was actually one of them.

Anonymous said...

DCCC sent something out today about Bob and Bush, blah, blah, blah...Laughable.

It's all plug 'n play garbage. If Coulson had won, they would have run the same thing, but with her name instead of his.

Feilding Mellish

Anonymous said...

I sent away for the private detective correspondence course. Dold wins and the flood of anonymous venom directed at TA ceases. I suspect there are clues here.

Anonymous said...

Dold v. Seals? This is the B-team matchup. Neither has a real job or a record, so they were able to demonize their legislative opponents for actually working to get things done. I'm very disappointed in this match-up!

Blue Wind said...

Regarding your comment

"Add in the District's favorite son Kirk "

Let me assure you that for nearly half of IL10 (slightly less, 45-46%), Kirk has been the "shame of the district", not the "favorite son". It has been embarrassing having as our congressman someone who was a rubber-stamp for the Bush administration, while this district is so democratic.

Kirk is a great politician and that is how he was getting re-elected (with narrow margins). That does not make him the "favorite son" of the district. That applies only to a percentile of IL10 residents who really liked him. Many did not and many thought that he was doing a terrible job and we are glad to see that he will be replaced by someone else.

Anonymous said...

"Strike 3"

Publia said...

Down here in New Trier Township there is over 30 years of positive name recognition for the name Dold in Republican politics that I personally know of. The family was out walking precincts for Republicans well before the Kirk family moved over to Melrose Avenue and have continued to do so until the present. This campaign is going to be a pleasure.

Anonymous said...

I have doubts about the bush thing working. Dold isn't my favorite guy, but Rob Portman was bush's guy in the white house and he's blowing out a highly respected challenger in ohio senate race in a state obama carried big, and where the gop has been stung badly with their version of george ryan. The bush thing has lost its pump, democrats are upset at their own people-read catlady's blog, blago is going to be awful for them, and the issues of the day are so great that the media is going to be less likely to want to deal with the bush narrative.

dold is clever, the trip to the manufacturing plant, the bus, you can tell he has been in national politics since those are not congressional level moves.

democrats can't bash dold on jobs since most of them like dan don't have them or have them but they are taxpayer funded.

He's got to start having mock debates everynight because dan is a lot more charismatic than him. He needs to get more depth, and quicker.

I also don't know how much national democrats are going to want to invest in dan. their first priority is saving their own people and they have about 50-60 seats this year that they have to save. In 2006 and 2008 they had 2-3 TOTAL, that's not a misprint that were endangered and so had a lot more money to throw away here. i am sure there are operatives on the hill-I know the nrcc is next to t-coast-i don't know where the dccc is, that really aren't thrilled with spending another 2.5 million on dan when the money could be used to save members like harry teague, blue dogs, and others that took tough votes for them on health care.

There's a spreadsheet on from 2008 with the money the dccc spent on elections last cycle. When I get home I'll take a look and try to make a projection about what kind of money they'll spend on dan. this is a big deal because dold won't get anything from the broke nrcc, and I think it will be close.

we'll see.


Anonymous said...

Let me assure you that for nearly half of IL10 (slightly less, 45-46%), Kirk has been the "shame of the district", not the "favorite son".

Well, Blue at least 50% + 1 of the VOTERS of the 10th Mark Kirk has...and continues to be the favorite son and thats all that really matters here.

Anonymous said...

B- matchup is an understatement.

Two guys with pseudo jobs that probably look at themselves in the mirror way too often.

I was not a Kirk fan because of his tendency to over compass his positions, but at least he had gravitas.

The 10th should be embarrassed. As these fellas have no intrinsic core, it should be a celebrity contest of platitudes....

On a totally different note, as a meat eating guy, I'm a little embarrassed we sacked-- ideology aside-- two accomplished & dedicated women (for these self absorbed charlatans).

Dirksen is rolling in his grave.