Well, Q2 reports are due today, so the candidates that have been playing coy up until now ought to go ahead and fess up, because we'll all find out your results soon.
[TA's Note: I wrote the text below this morning before I saw the Washington Post has reported on Alexi Giannoulias' campaign numbers. Not a bad prediction on my part]
As everyone knows, Mark Kirk had a killer fundraising second quarter, $2.3 million. Nothing but crickets from Alexi, so my guess is he raised maybe a little over a million. That ought to suck a lot of wind out of his sails. We'll see.
UPDATED: Bloomberg News reports that Alexi raised less than $1 million in Q2, and has only $1 million on the bank. Wow.
The other race we're watching closely is the 10th congressional district race, where two-time loser Dan Seals is matched up against GOP newcomer Bob Dold. Both candidates have been holding their cards close, which means to me that neither side knows how the other did, so no one wants to be the first to brag, only to be upstaged by the other side.
Conventional wisdom would give a slight fundraising edge to Seals, simply due to greater name recognition, an established fundraising base (especially on the national side), and the fact that the Dems see IL-10 as a much better pickup opportunity than many districts where a Dem snuck in under the Obama umbrella in 2008, and there is a much greater chance of such districts swinging back to the GOP in the current environment.
Nevertheless, we expect a strong quarter out of Dold, even if he doesn't eclipse Seals, so this race is still very much in play, and it'll be exciting to see it unfold.
Feel free to leave your Q2 guesses in comments.
UPDATED: We've all been very curious about how the Dold and Seals fundraising competition would play out and it looks like the candidates were a virtual dead heat for Q2 results. Based on the Tribune's Clout Street blog report, Seals was around $550,000, and Dold edging slightly at $560,000 or so. Both candidates have about $800,000 cash on hand.
Based on expectations that Seals should be ahead of Dold by most conventional standards, I count this as a win for Dold.
Also - Greg Hinz has the scoop on the grilling Alexi G took today as he tried to explain away his for-crap fundraising numbers and his disingenuous hair-slitting as to who he will and will not take money from. Short story, unions PACs are okay, but not any PACs that donate to Kirk. Ahem.
UPDATED: Here's some coverage on Kirk and Dold in the Daily Herald.