We don't even know what the 10th Congressional District in Illinois will look like, but the Dems are already lining up for a crack at freshman Congressman Bob Dold, in anticipation that the new map will give the already challenging (for a Republican) voter base a boost in the Dem's direction. The latest entrant is Brad Schneider, whose name I heard thrown out a few weeks back. His campaign website is here. There is very little content on the site so far, but at least he sounds a little bit more mainstream than the first declared Dem candidate, Ilya Sheyman, who we discussed a while back. And, unlike Dan Seals, Schneider actually seems to have been employed the last few years.
Assuming that the word on the street is correct that the 10th will be drawn to more heavily favor Democrats, you can bet that there will be additional entrants into the race... perhaps even State Senator Susan Garrett or Lauren Beth Gash. Stay tuned...
UPDATED 5/26/11 9:00 pm: The Tribune Clout St. Blog has an article up with the latest in speculation/inside scoop on the Congressional remap circus. We've been hearing speculation for weeks that Bob Dold would be drawn inside Jan Schakowsky's 9th District. Insert your own Dan Seals joke here.
UPDATED X2 5/27/9:00 AM: The Senate version of the Congressional Map is now available. If this sticks, at least I don't have to change my blog name. But remember that this is not the final word, campers.
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37 comments:
Fielding must be loving this
-a 25 year old intern who went to dc this week to meet with powerful democratic leadership and had 6 kids show up to a happy hour on u street-a poor showing.
-a mid 40's guy whose resume amounts to some business experience and lots of titles for donating money to jewish groups. There are people on here who know more about the jewish community than I do, but those fancy sounding fellowships and titles basically amount to giving a few bucks to various causes.
of interest is his wife's last name is she related to laurie dann?
FOKLAES
Perhaps when the new map is released and we see the 10th embracing most of Lake County, the big guns will come out for a real race.
Yes, Foklaes, you've connected the dots correctly on Brad Schneider's wife's family. That said, Julie Dann is in the family Insurance business and has nothing to do with that tragic and painful incident more than 2 decades ago. Brad Schneider and Ilya Scheyman offer nothing to the voters up here regardless of the district lines. Neither has a record to stand on, even if Brad touts his charitable giving. That's hardly a qualification, as we well know.
I believe we will see other Dems jump in once the map is known. The leaders realize that neither Ilya or Brad have what it takes as credible candidates.
Bob Dold is proving to be a very fine Congressman. I am neither a staffer or a contributor, but I have met Bob, I am following his voting record and floor statements and he's getting great approval from many in the current 10th District.
Foklaes, let's see what happens when the map is released before we make our predictions. We won't have long to wait.
One is a 25 year old MoveOn.org communist
The other donated money to a few Jewish orbs... not much
BOTH Dems would vote to put Pelosi back in power
Dold wins
One is a 25 year old MoveOn.org communist
The other donated money to a few Jewish orbs... not much
BOTH Dems would vote to put Pelosi back in power
Dold wins
Why do I think that Dold's people are doing spit-takes when they read you guys calling any candidate a communist? If y'all stop that foaming at the mouth a moment you can hear his advisers suggesting that they distance themselves from this blogger.
You guys moved from Laurie Dann right into the communist stuff. Way to marginalize yourselves guys!
That communist intern has done more for Waukegan and North Chicago in two months than Bob Dold has done in his professional career.
=Why do I think that Dold's people are doing spit-takes when they read you guys calling any candidate a communist?=
So just because the Cold War is over, you believe that there are no more "communists"? What happened to the generations the Soviet Union indoctrinated? Oh, that's right: they're now free to "move around".
On the other hand, I'm sure people believe that fascists are still alive and well, right?
And what about China? No communists there either because they decided to deviate from their ideology and become "capitalists". Or, could they be "deviating" because they believe in the spread of communism and in today's world capitalism is a necessary "evil" to meet their objective?
Human rights, though? No big deal, right?
As I've said before, if my cousins from Moscow--who served in the Soviet Navy and Army and worked for Pravda, suddenly came here and told me they were "Americans", I'd say "u-huh".
OMG! This could be the funniest stuff I've read for weeks!
I always sort of thought that the Tea Party was channeling the spirit of Joe McCarthy. And, dammed if it ain't so!
You have my heartfelt thanks for clearing that up for me.
According to www.politics1.com, these three candidates are running in the 10th Dist.:
Bob McKenzie (D) - Attorney, Ex-Merchant Marine Officer & Electrical Engineer
Brad Schneider (D) - Tax Consultant
Ilya Sheyman (D) - Progressive Activist & Political Organizer
Phil Collins
Keep laughing. We'll see how it plays out.
Ooooh, threatening and ominous tone from the guy carrying the list of known communists. Haven't we been there? Haven't we done that? What are you, goofy?
Oooh, it get's better! TA's over on the Lake County Eye blog refutiating the commie-hunters over here.
Awkward!
My statement wasn't threatening or ominous. Nor did I claim to have a "list". It was merely an observation that people don't change over night.
I'll make a deal with you. I'll consider agreeing with you that there are no communists....if you'll tell me that you're certain that all the fascists are gone as well.
And here's just one more thought. Just as some Jews will cite differences between Israelis and European Jews, Russians will cite major differences between those who came to the US during (or immediately after the War) and just recently.
Can you wrap your mind around that one, do you even have any personal knowledge ore experience to comment on that one, or are you too far removed--or "politically correct"--to even consider the thought?
And here's a clue, "politically correct one": Those who fled for the "American Dream" under extreme hardship during or after the war (Jews AND Christians) did so because they were being persecuted and/or didn't agree with what was happening in their countries.
Those who stayed--or even temporarily left for countries like Brazil and then returned--had incentive to stay in (or return to) the Soviet Union.
People like my cousins were "promoted" to Moscow where they were rewarded with high-ranks in their Armed Forces and their newspapers.
It wasn't that long ago. I'm a bit surprised that you don't remember--or "history" doesn't get down to that level of detail to teach what really happened.
=Way to marginalize yourselves guys!=
marginalize: to place in a position of marginal importance, influence, or power
I'll bet that liberal "ignorance" is a huge contributor in that process.
Oh, "politically correct one": how many innocent lives were ruined or taken by communists and fascists over the past few decades?
Is it surprising to you that there are those choose to remember what the communists did--and still do, just as some choose to remember what the fasicsts did?
And I supposed you're fine with mocking the former, but support the latter?
Very "marginalizing" and "tea party-ish", no?
This "Anonymous" vs. "Anonymous" debate is pretty hilarious! Which one of you is the communist and which one is the tea partier?
Be honest now!
Louis G. Atsaves
How does one respond to Anon 5:36?
Louis, you're the Dr. Everett V. Scott of this group, help me here.
Over the past few years, I've read some head-scratching comments here, but this one... Hmmmm. Are you saying that this candidate is actually a Communist Russian spy? What?
I'm sorry, I gotten nothin.'
Every so often, a comment string develops that makes me shake my head and wonder exactly what's going on. This is one of those times.
Do you mean that the seemingly excessive constraints of political correctness are the only things keeping you from referring to political foes as communists? Okay, I guess that was expected. After Louis started buying into all the tea party's farcical socialist mumbo-jumbo, it was only a matter of time until TA's fringe elements emerged with their hammers and sickles at the ready. Whether emanating from liberal ignorance, or the more likely revulsion from most folks, the result remains the same. I understand Harold Camping is holding seminars on coping with sudden marginalization.
Yes, Folksy, I am loving this...But I musn't get caught blogging on my government-issued computer!
We'll see what happens...You have been doubling down against Dold because you opposed him from the start and were wrong about him losing to Seals. So, no big surprise.
I am just happy that I have gotten under your skin...I come back after a week off the site and see you've resorted to starting your wisdom-filled posts with cracks at me. I wear it like a badge of honor, Folksy.
See, the problem for you is, Dold has been doing a great job in congress. And all of your pompous sniping from the peanut gallery hasn't done a thing to change that.
You're blogging about it, Folksy. Dold is doing it...in the arena, where it matters.
So, just keep tilting at your windmills, Folksy. And who knows...maybe someday you can make a difference in the real world, too.
Well, gotta run...Make sure to keep in touch!
Fondly,
Fielding Mellish
I'm with team america, I don't know who brought the ass clowns but they make catlady look like a grown up. Go away please.
My real reason for posting was the tremendous response the senator got at aipac and the wonderful words of senator mark kirk in tomorrows david brooks/nytimes column.
As for fielding, congratulations on learning what the hatch act is, sounds like your boy needs to now find new housing and maybe hell even buy his own this time. Now enjoy explaining your ryan vote to a district where obama is likely to win by 30 points next year. We dont know the map yet or who the democrats will bring up to run, but that's a lot of confidence for a guy already considered walking dead in NW DC.
FOKLAES
TA, just curious...you keep saying this isn't final, but if the dems control everything and this is they way they want it, what do you see possibly changing?
At any rate, if this does hold up, I'll have to change my screen name to "14th District" :)
8th, the Dems won't listen to anything the Republicans have to say, but sometimes fellow Dem legislators or interest groups can give imput that results in slight revisions, as it has already with the state maps. Plus, the state house will have a version that may not be identical and then some adjustments have to be agreed to, as I understand the process.
TA...one other question. When would these maps become final? And how would that affect the current congressmen?
Say the proposed map sticks. Currently I'm in walsh's district. Would Hultgren (14th) become my congressman overnight? Or do the changes take place after the next round of congressional elections?
The latter. All this is all about the Nov. 2012 election.
Thanks for the responses TA...that makes sense
So wise Fielding is your pal going to buy his own new home and move into the 10th or will he stick to his guns and duke it out in the 9th with comrade jan?
As an aside I think if walsh takes on hultgren he'll crush hultgren. He has money this time, a national following, is much more articulate, and probably has a better connection with the new right/tea party.
FOKLAES
FOKLAES -
If you'll remember, your hero, Mark Kirk, was redistricted out of his "home" district and still originally ran in the 10th to succeed Porter. He then moved here. Dold can easily do the same thing and not get hit too hard for it.
The difference with Seals is that he never lived in the 10th.
As for Obama winning by 30, I assume you're exaggerating a bit as there is no way he snows that many voters here this time around - "Fool me once..." and all that.
Finally, as for Dold being "walking dead" in DC, no idea who your sources are, but mine tell me he has made a great impression (reaching out to Dems, defending PP) and is doing all the right things for this district. I wouldn't count him out the way you did in the last cycle. Still a bit early for his political obit.
Hope everyone has a great Holiday weekend.
Anon,
Kirk didn't have kids-it was just him and kimberly that had to move. Dold has kids who have to change school districts and then he has to find his own home.
Dold has voted 90 percent of the time with the house majority-a figure that will be tougher to defend in a more democratic district among people which he has no history with.
He now has a less affluent district which depends more on government services where the type of tea party cuts he favors will go over badly.
Finally, in washington they use something called the partisan voting index to determine how democratic/republican a district is. so they take the democratic vote in the last election nationally which was 55 percent then compare that to the vote the presidential candidate got in that district-in the current dold district it's 61 percent for a pvi of +6. in the new dold 10th its +9.
Currently dold has the most democratic district in the country which he won by 3 points last time in the best republican year in a half generation. There are no republicans in more democratic districts than him right now.
here are democrats who live in districts as democratic as the one he'll be in next year
dennis kucinich-no explanation needed
nita lowey-the comrade jan of ny
jim mcgovern-the comrade jan of the peoples republic of massachusettes who is the leading anti-war advocate in congress.
david wu-a congressman in a district so democratic that last year he dressed up in a tiger suit and had a mental breakdown and still won.
is dold finished-no. will having liesel hickey at the nrcc give him 5 extra points? yes. but can a quayle man from kenilworth win waukegan?
we shall see.
FOKLAES
Foklaes -
Agree on all points. Dold lost Lake County and having more of Waukegan in it certainly doesn't help. Benton Harbor folks with certainly make up for it in enthusiasm, if not numbers. Will b especially hard to make up for Palatine.
As you said, we shall see.
Enjoy the long weekend.
Please tell me I won't be in Comrade Jan's Congressional District. Sometimes Life is just not fair!
B&B's Mom
Don't be surprised if Walsh runs in the new 10th (and not in the new 14th against Hultgren, as many are predicting). Walsh's home is a stone's throw from the 10th (actually closer than Dold's home is to the new 10th border) & Walsh's old district covers most of the north half of the new 10th. This would prevent one more situation of two Republican incumbents facing off in a primary. Dold, whose house, business, and church are all well inside the new 9th, will have a tough time justifying politically a run in the new 10th. If he does, expect him to talk about moving his family "after" the election (after his fate is known...he won't relocate unless absolutely necessary...)
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