Thursday, November 10, 2011

Rummel Poll Shows Strength for Lauren Turelli

Someone sent me the results for a poll commissioned by former Lake Forest Mayor Mike Rummel that I think has a lot to say about the strength of his former opponent, Lauren Turelli, in her race to succeed outgoing State Representative Karen May in the 58th Legislative District.

Team America readers will recall that Turelli originally began this cycle as a candidate for Lake County Board, District 12, with former Lake Forest Mayor Mike Rummel and attorney Scott Helton also vying for the GOP nomination. After Karen May announced her retirement, however, Turelli switched over to the 58th District race, in which she had faced May one cycle before, and lost a tough race.

With May out of the picture, Turelli no doubt sensed the opportunity, and Keith Gray of Mettawa (himself a former candidate for State Senate against Terry Link in 2008) dropped out of the race and endorsed Turelli, leaving Dr. Mark Neerhof as the only other announced Republican candidate to challenge Turelli.

Got all that?

So, on to the poll I mentioned. Mike Rummel, a former mayor of Lake Forest (by the way, due to term limits, it seems you can't swing a cat in Lake Forest without running into a former mayor) commissioned a poll while Turelli was still a candidate for county board. Given that the new District 12 has a substantial overlap with the 58th District, the matchup of Turelli, Rummel and Helton ought to give primary opponent Mark Neerhof (as well as the Dems) quite a bit of concern.

A few excerpts from the poll of 141 likely voters: Turelli handily beat both Rummel and Helton if the vote were held that day, 34-22-4, with 28 undecided and 17 no opinion. Turelli also compared well with both Rummel and Helton with fav/un fav perception, running about even with long-time county board member Susan Gravenhorst, who is not running. Looking at the specific Lake Forest numbers from the poll, Turelli is also strong, which bodes unfavorably for Neerhof in the 58th District race.

The other bad news is for Helton, who has a lot of ground to catch up on with Rummel, who now, according to this poll at least, would be running away with the primary election with Turelli out of the county board race. In addition, Rummel has posted some very impressive fundraising numbers for a county board race, in excess of $35K.


Anonymous said...

By all indications there are 4 good Republicans running for office in Lake Forest, two for the county Board and two for State Representative. Pretty big uphill climb for Helton and Neerhof. It would be nice to see some party building but I doubt that will happpen.

Anonymous said...

Helton at 4% is surprising. You would think he had more name ID.

Team America said...

It was four votes, not 4%. Sorry if I did not make that clear.

Anonymous said...

4 votes out of 141? By my math that means 3.8% and change. My bad. His numbers are even more dismal.

Anonymous said...

It's really pretty sad when you consider Rummel's voting record. Voted in 2 Democratic Primaries out of the last four?

What is he running as, a Republicrat? Or is he a stealth Democrat with a history of thousands of dollars of donations to State Senator Susan Garrett and other Democrats? And no donations to Republicans in the last decade?

I'm sure none of that popped up in the "poll" of 141 voters.

Time for Republicans to vote for real Republicans, not pretend ones.

Anonymous said...

What's sad is how far back Helton is if the above comments are true. This poll has to be targeting Republican Primary voters. That means Rummel is really well liked by Republican voters and has good crossover appeal to independents and recovering Democrats. Funny, that may be the perfect candidate for the district.

Foot Steps said...

TA, what is the breakdown in the various parts of the district? A quick look at the map indicates the voter base is probably Lake Forest then Deerfield. That means Turelli was doing better than a former Mayor in Rummel, a long Time resident and Republican Party activist in Helton, and the current County Board member in Gravenhorst. Who is Neerhof again?

Anonymous said...

I'm inclined to believe Neerhof is going to make a major splash in the Republican pool and pul off an upset. During the petition gathering season, Neerhof gathered over 500 signatures on his own. His friends and supporters gathered another 500+ with great enthusiasm. For those who claim name recognition is key, I'd suggest they have a little chat with Dan Seals!