The fund raising reports for the candidates in Illinois' Tenth Congressional District are in, and once again, incumbent congressman Mark Kirk handily outshines the Democratic competition for this past reporting period (October 1, 2007 through January 16, 2008). Kirk's numbers as reported to the FEC are:
$493,740 in contributions
$213,534 in expenditures
$1,789,961 cash on hand
$2,320,933 raised this election cycle (including interest and other income).
See Kirk's report here.
In contrast, Democrat Dan Seals reported:
$333,041 in contibutions
$204,746 in expenditures
$627,167 cash on hand
$913,210 raised this election cycle
See Seals' report here.
Finally, Jay Footlik, the other Democratic contender who must defeat Dan Seals in the Democratic primary on February 5 to win the right to take on Kirk in the November general election reported as follows:
$133,748 in contributions
$414,415 in expenditures
$133,351 cash on hand
$422,841 raised this election cycle
See Footlik's report here.
The quick analysis of all of this is that Kirk is crushing Seals in fundraising (who appeared to have a fairly disappointing fundraising period), but in turn, Seals is pretty much crushing Footlik. Kirk has the luxury of banking his money, given the fact he has no primary opponent, and Seals is spending more money than he probably wanted to (interestingly, his report seems heavy on campaign payroll) in order to defend his presumptive front-runner status on the Dem side. Footlik, of course, is spending everything he has (and then some, it appears) on advertising to play catch up with Seals in name recognition.
So what does all of this mean? Just based on the numbers, and the polling data released so far by Seals, Seals appears to have the primary in the bag. But, stranger things have happened, and Seals could stumble within sight of the finish line, either by some scandal being revealed in the press, picking his nose in public, or perhaps the Seals voters being too complacent and not turning out for the actual vote.
Assuming Seals wins, however, he needs to seriously ramp up his fundraising to compete with Kirk. Seals lost valuable months since the last election by waiting until Jay Footlik had announced his campaign before Seals jumped in (as to why Seals delayed and what was he doing during that time period, continue to watch this space...) and now needs to play a massive game of catch up with our congressman Mark Kirk.
Seals is no doubt expecting the DCCC to ride in on a white horse and make up the millions of dollars in comparative deficit that he will appear to have based on his own lackluster fundraising effort. But, given that the Dems will be defending a large number of newly-acquired seats this year, as well as helping vulnerable veterans such as Melissa Bean, it remains to be seen if the DCCC plans to single-handedly match Kirk's impressive war chest (and then some), which will be necessary for Seals to have a hope of competing.
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14 comments:
The stunning success of Congressman Kirk's 4th quarter fundraising is also seen in his 48 hour reports, TA. From January 18 thru January 24 Mr. Kirk has an incredible additional $83.300. Mr. Seals posted $30.980 to Footlik's rather weak showing of $9.900. If you look at the expenditures that both Seals and Footlik have listed it's clear that Seals is gearing up for the general election while Footlik is aiming it all at hoping to win this Primary contest. Who knows how it will unfold, but if I was a betting person I'd say that Seals clearly thinks he has this February 5 vote in his "pocket". Regardless, Mark Kirk is showing phenomenol support as he goes forward for a well deserved Fifth Term as our Congressman.
I think you're right Anon 1:37, and what the post-quarterly report filings tell me is that Kirk is not resting for a second, and is already well on his way to trouncing Seals in the next quarter. Of course, assuming that Seals wins the primary, he may get some bounce in local fundraising, so that may help his cause.
I can already hear the Seals folks bellowing about how DCCC will be coming in after the primary, but it's clear that Kirk is ready for that eventuality, as Kirk's fundraising numbers so completely eclipse anything Seals has raised on his own, it's obvious he wants to be prepare for the out-of-district invasion. But, that in anf of itself will be a campaign issue; if Seals cannot compete without national party help, what kind of a candidate is he? You will recall that he basically blamed the national democratic party for losing last time. Wonder how long their memory is at DCCC? And, saying to people that 'I would have won if political organizations from outside the district would have given me a hand-out' is not a great campaign slogan.
Of course, as you say, Footlik needs to run as if THIS is the race, because for him it is. I will be curious to see if he spends every last dime he has, or he keeps some in reserve as seed money for a possible bid in 2010.
What an interesting pic:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm
Hillary and Barry are both in bed with dirty fish.
More brainless drivel from you. It doesn't take a degree in Economics to derive that:
First of all, no surprise that there is a lot more Republican money than Democratic money.
Secondly, the gap, while still great, is lessened when two candidates split the dollars as opposed to one incumbent receiving all the dollars.
Third, surely $$$ make a big difference, but votes win elections, not who wins the prize for most contributions.
What was Mark Kirk doing when he took campaign donations from Tony Rezko? That's not the only sleazeball giving to Kirk that will come up this year.
TA: Did you see that Dan Seals took money from Blair Hull (again)?
TA,
Here's a little insight into the political arithmetic going on at the DCCC.
32 -- The number of competitive Democratic-held seats the DCCC must defend.
9 -- The number of open seat toss-ups.
39 -- The number of Republican seats in the same range of competitiveness as IL-10.
1 -- Where Mark Kirk ranks among all Republicans in fundraising.
What does that add up to? Answer: Putting your money elsewhere.
Sparty
TA: Looks like Seals also continues to take money from Fay and Daniel Levin - the developers who are famous for evicting low income african americans out of their properties.
Anon 5:53
Yea, very famous folks. I'm sure I can peruse the FEC listings and find all kinds of "famous" perverts, felons, and folks with issues who are on the Kirk donation list as well.
Virtually impossible to screen every single donor on their lifetime acheivements or public service.
I'll bet I could find some questionable ethics violations if I looked through your life history. (Even if you don't know they exist! And, given the fact I have no idea who you are!)
From some of the latest posts it appears that there's some sour grapes from the other side. Give it a rest you malcontents. Mark Kirk has earned the support he enjoys for all that he has accomplished. Get that fact through your partisan heads. I think it's great that TA gives you a platform to spout off with such ridiculous charges. That catwoman doesn't believe in dialogue.......it's her way or the highway. Can we stop this pettiness and start looking at issues backed by facts. If not, why not go back over to voicing your tirades on Ms. Shrill's site.
Kirk and Seals are going to spend millions and end up in the same place.
So now we know what Kirk has been spending all his time on since he almost got trounced in the last election...begging for money so he can outspend his opponent in the next campaign.
Is that what he hired him for? Good grief.
@I am Sparticus:
If you think there are 39 competitive Dem-held seats this cycle you are HIGH. Meanwhile, More than 20 Republicans are retiring. And almost all of the tossups are Red.
Meanwhile, DCCC is flush with cash so kicking Seals some cash should be a breeze. Meanwhile, RNCC is selling plasma to pay the credit card bills. Kirk oughta save his cash, take a couple of years off, then run against Blago.
check out the groups (tuesday group) mark Kirk is a member of and who the treasurer is - the same guy who is under investigation by the NRCC.
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