So far, the 8th District debates have ended. I managed to miss it because it seemed to have ended a little early. I hear Steve Greenberg did a great close, but haven't had a chance to hear much else yet because I have been getting set up online.
So far, the only celebrity I have seen is Mrs. Footlik. She's sitting right up front. At least she's not wearing a big hat to block my view.
I see that Ellen Beth Shrill is sitting in my row a few seats down. Just one big happy family here..... More to come!!!!
7:00 p.m.: So far, the TV cameramen are from CLTV and ABC-7. Print media include Pioneer Press and Tribune.
7:17 p.m.: Some guy next to me with a Footlik sticker on his suit is being very pushy about trying to move people around so he can get all his family members/friends/hired bodies in together. Hope they have showered because they pushed in right next to me....
7:20 p.m.: Daily Herald showed up.
7:25 p.m.: The room is pretty packed. I hear that the 8th District one was also full, though.
7:30 p.m.: Footlik stickers way outnumber Seals stickers on people. Maybe you get a free pack of gum outside if you put one on. I got in too early, probably.
7:31 p.m.: The men are here, waiting to make their entrance. Footlik is much taller than I thought. Oh, wait, it's not Footlik, it's one of the high school teachers standing next to Seals. Jay is there now. He needs lifts.
7:33 p.m.: Some guy who looks like he's part of Footlik's group is WEARING a Footlik sign on his chest. Major squid points for that guy.
7:36: They're finally on stage. Each one gets 3 minutes. How many times can each guy say "I'm not Mark Kirk, George Bush is Baaaaad!"
7:37: I'm counting how many times each one says "change."
Seals: Can't wait to say goodbye to the Bush administration, and his friend Mark Kirk. We must change the way Washington works. We have an honest disagreement with how to bring about change, do you want someone who is a Washington insider or someone who knows how it works but is not an insider. Seals is now a "LECTURER" not a professor.
Footlik: Your generation reclaimed its voice and has shown the power of your influence. I want to hear your ideas about how to get this country back on track. His life story now. He went to work as a child actor to make ends meet with his family. Footlik's speech is pretty much memorized but is fairly fresh and focuses on his life and career. Now we're into the Clinton era. He helped co-found SAFE. He thinks we need independent real experienced leaders in Washington. His list of concerns... long, war, oil dependency, lack of health care, you have to go back 40 years to find a worst time. It's Bush's fault and Kirk is also to blame.
Footlik has more supporters in the room.
7:45: First question: Why has Mark Kirk won 4 times, why should he be replaced?
Seals: Mark Kirk has voted with Bush 90% of the time; it's not independent leadership. He opposes Bush only when he's concerned about politics.
Footlik: Kirk votes with Bush way too often; we have an opportunity to knock out Kirk, it's a Democratic district. To neutralize his accomplishments, to enact CHANGE, you need someone like me to meet Kirk toe-to-toe with experience.
7:47: Second question: Health Care: everyone needs it, Kirk has never done anything to help. His plan is different than medicare, and it's the best way to accomplish universal health care.
Seals: Kirk voted against house version of SCHIP. Tells a story about a woman in Waukegan who has cancer. 47 million americans have the problem of being underinsured. Seals says keep your insurance if you like it, but there should be an affordable alternative. three, health care should be portable. Get businesses out of health care.
7:50: Third Question: How must school education and no child left behind be changed?
Seals; Fund no child left behind, reform the bill. Kirk voted to cut Pell grants; should make cost of college tax deductible for those under a certain income. People have crushing debt coming out of college.
Footlik: He has the support of the largest teachers union and the local one; they supported Seals last time but has switched and he's really proud of it. He has a lot of experience on college loans because he's still paying. 8.25% loans are strangling our competitveness. Invokes JFK. Fund No Child Left behind.
Rebuttal by Seals: note on endorsements. He loves the Illinois Federation of Teachers; he has the cook county chapter and 30 other groups. It's a wonderful thing to be loved by so many. Thank you, thank you.
7:55: Next question: Alternative energy? What's your solution? Harness the power of goose poop???
Footlik: Bad that Bush is sending are people to die over in Iraq when the Saudis are making tons of money; Footlik helped to found an organization called SAFE which is to decrease dependance on oil. It helped to push through fuel efficiency standards. Encourgae wind, solar power, bring more federal R&D money home.
Seals: SAFE advocates drilling in the Arctic. Let's invest in alternative sources. Pull tax credits to big oil companies and put money into alternative fuel sources. Good for jobs, national security.
Footlik: Rebuttal: Outrageous that Seals attacks him for starting SAFE which has started a debate on the energy issue, name one thing that you've done to actually do anything to create change and help the energy. Seals is mad that he can't rebut.
Seals: now we're talking about teachers. Did I miss the question? He has experience as a teacher. He changed the "district" in 2006. No one wanted to step up and make change in 206 but he did. Big round of Seals supporters applauding.
Next: Which is a bigger concern: Iran or Pakistan?
Seals: Not an either/or question. In Pakistan, big question is safeguards on nukes; Iran is lead by an evil, evil man who has threatened ISrael and others. Control Pakistan; separate Iran from China and Russia; must be willing to talk to them; Bush admin refused to talk.
Footlik: Clearly the more dangerous threat is Pakistan. They already have the bomb, increasing uncertainty, do more than the administration and Kirk has done. Kirk has given blank checks to Pakistan. Instead of building up one person, should have put money to democracy. While Iran stopped nuke program, didn't stop uranium enrichment. Now Footlik is starting on the Israel kick. Need diplocatic sanctions, etc to get Iranians to stop.
Last moderated question: Not experience an attack on US soil by terrorists. What has Bush administration done well?
Footlik: Nothing. Our troops have done will in Afghantisan but we're loosing ground and taken our eye off the ball in Iran. Lists long examples of trouble spots. Footlik has a much better command of foreign issues. Bush is now in Israel for first time, which is shameful. NIE report underscores that we still don't have reliable intelligence 6 years after 9/11.
Seals: Has done a few things well. Gone after financial resources, went overseas to fight terrorism. Problem is, they went to the wrong country. Likes the 9/11 commission recommendations. Zion plant- if it was hit, we don't have a coordinated emergency response issues. Restore fight in Afghanistan. Help countries with high unemployment for young men which are trouble.
Audience questions: How does your experience help you to work in a non-partisan manner?
Seals: Worked with Kennedy and Santoram, so he can work with anyone. Need to be willing to work and listen and talk. That's what's missing most. You have to demand that your rep works with most sides. that's how you get CHANGE.
Footlik: I have actual experience !!!!! I worked with SAFE!!!!! He's also been working with people in Washington, the Balkans, for thelast 15 to bring people with diverse backgrounds together.
Q: Social security and medicare: How would you secure medicare and social security trust funds?
Footlik: We have an obligaton between generations; gradually raise cap of taxes into SS fund. Increase gradually. Put some estate taxes into SS fund. Medicare gets right and obligation to negotiate lower drug prices. Invest in preventative medicine, cut out excess paperwork.
Seals: If we act now, we can avert crisis. Eliminate caps, roll back Bush cuts, change how we pay out. Look at not paying out benefits to wealthiest americans because they don't need them. Spread out costs along wider population.
Q: Human Rights conditions- should they be a factor in trade relations with foreign countries.
Seals: Human rights should be a factor in all relations. It's the right thing to do. Cites waterboarding, this administration steps on human rights.
Footlik: Free trade, but it must be fair trade. Workers must have good conditions and environment is important. Toxic imports are bad. Tainted pet food is bad.
Q: (GAG ME): would you advise a president Obama to meet with the Iranian president?
Footlik: No, but we should put everything on the table and discuss it. There should be consequence for failure to respond.
Seals: Yes, we should talk to our enemies and get them to change. Iranian president is crazy but ot the real power. Talking to the leader is not capitulating to the leader. Talk to China and Russia to cut out sweetheart deals and prevent a war.
Q: What's the first bill you'd sign?
Seals: Exit war in Iraq. Supports repsonsible phased withdrawal. Put pressure on Iraqi government to solve their own problems. Helps us to free out troops for other places.
Footlik: Healthcare crisis: Iraq will be going on for a while, supports withdrawal, but healthcae needs to be solved. Lots of ideas to cut out waste.
Q: Who is your political role model?
Footlik: JFK. He was a political leader and had passion and Footlik revered him growing up. He's inspired people everyhere and inspired him to this day.
Seals: Big fan of Barack Obama. People ask him if he's Barack. He's fighting for change and trying to change Washington, that's what he's fighting for as well.
Q: Two biggest local goals for Tenth District:
Seals: Transportation. Long commutes are bad. More funding, help people that are going to other suburbs. Two, impact aid- funding schools, has been cut.
Footlik: Impact aid; defray costs of educating those children of military; two, environmental concerns on Lake Michigan. BP is good, but he voted for Tom Delay's big tax breaks for big oil.
Q: Your plan for subprime crisis?
Footlik: Invokes James Carvell. Invest in education, give them tools to compete in global economy. Reinvest in R&D with more federal money. Subprime- Mark Kirk votes against giving relief. Do more to protect those given loans and help them out.
Seals: It's not the people's fault, the predatory lenders get people to sign up for loans they canta afford. Notin favor of a bailout, though. Regulate in front end. Segway into stuff about small businesses for some reason.
Last Question (whew!): Which founding father's endorsement's would you covet?
Seals: Alexander Hamilton. Not well known but wrote Federalist Papers and founde the economic system. Overcame humble beginnings and challenges.
Footlik: Thomas Jefferson: had incredible foresight and created the govermment which we are proud of.
TWO MINUTE DRILL:
Footlik: Substantive differences between me and my opponent. He's a fighter. The voice of the district is not in line with the district. We need big changes and I can do it. I have the experience, I've lived and worked in the middle east, I will hit the ground running on the first day. I've been working for Dems since I was a young boy. I know how to wage a tough campaign. He got a girl and another one on the way. Plugs his website. He's the only candidate that can beat Mark Kirk.
Seals: We do a lot of grass roots work. He was in Vernon Hills and some guy asked if he was Dan Seals. He came up to Seals and started crying ab out his son going to Iraq. Wanted Iraqis to do more to hold up their end of the bargain. Seals- wants you to get involved, no matter what candidate you support. We all deserve better than what we have. Pundits say young people don't matter, make sure your voice is heard. We (I) need you if we're going to have change.
That's it for now. Analysis later after my fingers rest.
POST GAME ANALYSIS: Well, there were no fireworks tonight, no "macaca" moments, no one called the other guy a "meshugana." A couple dorky expressions on Dan Seals from time to time, but that was it. Both candiates were pretty well prepared, and both presented themselves well. In fact, one person whose judgment I respect and who saw the 8th District GOP candidates go at it said the 10th Dem candidates were head and shoulders above the GOPers. Too bad for the good guys.
So who "won"? Technically, Footlik had the debate edge. He was more energized, had a message to get out, and he did it, and he talked up his experience as much as he could. He invoked the word "change" the prerequsite number of times and tried to illustrate with his experience how he could effectuate change better than Seals. He also used more personal stories and overall seemed to have more effective answers to the questions, but only by a modest margin. Both tried to remember that they were talking to students and tried to be both appreciative of the student effort and interest without being overly patronizing about the important of young voters.
Substantively, Seals talked about the war quite a bit, Footlik much less so. When given the opportunity to talk about priorities, Seals grabbed the war, but Footlik grabbed healthcare. I tended to think Footlik's message was more well-rounded and more effective.
Strategically, I think Seals won, or at least, didn't loose. Seals made no major mistakes, gave a solid presentation well suited to the Dems in the audience and didn't pick his nose. Footlik, on the other hand, took the high ground in all his attacks and stayed on message with his experience, but only in a few instances tried to connect the dots and argue that Seals's lack of Footlik's breadth of experience would be a serious disadvantage in the general race, or in Washington. In my opinion, Footlik's only chance is to convince to voters of the 10th District that Dan Seals couldn't do the job last time, in an unprecedentially favorable Dem environment, and that Jay is the only one that can beat Mark Kirk. Jay actually said those words once, but it was in the context of his experience, not Seals's strategic chances as a candidate.
All Dan Seals had to do tonight, and all he has to do until Feb. 5th, is not screw up, and his greater name recognition will get him the win. Unless Footlik is ready to go nuclear, and has the money to get the message out that Dan's time is finished, Footlik may as well hang it up. As far as having the money, Footlik may be saving his sheckles for the last couple of weeks, but he may have picked all the low-hanging fruit he can from his national contacts, and can't raise the money Seals can in the 10th District. If that's the case, Footlik is really cooked. We won't have campaign disclosures until after the primary, so it will be an academic issue at that point--the results will be what counts. CAVEAT--all of this assumes that Jay Footlik is actually trying to win. If all he is doing is running to establish name recognition for another run, either in the 10th or somewhere else, or if he thinks this will get him a job somewhere in the political or consulting realms, then Footlik will NOT go nuclear, he will continue to take the high road to nowhere, and he will already be preparing to move on and get back to DC as soon as the Feb. 5th primary is over. Oh, and if Footlik has any poll results that show better data than the one that Seals did some weeks ago, Footlik better release it fast.
UPDATED 01.10.08 6:50 a.m.: Here the Daily Herald story covering both the 8th and 10th Congressional debates. Not much detail there. I watched the 10:00 news last night on ABC-7 (whose cameras were at the debates) but I didn't see any coverage. It may be on today or on the website at some point. We will have a few highlight clips up here, hopefully soon, but honestly, the entire debate wasn't worth watching if you've already read the feed, above. Pioneer Press has a pithier story.
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10 comments:
So glad you are live blogging - I have been out of town and am disappointed not to be there. i'm hoping TA is the next best thing to being there.
UM- was wondering where you were!
Out east - go Hill! but still keeping an eye on the 10th CD.
Kirk has been reelected 4 times because he does a good job.
Last time I checked, Kirk voted for SCHIP multiple times. He only voted against the first version that cut Medicare.
Are Jay and Dan for cutting Medicare now?
TA, be careful in that crowd! Thanks for this live blog. It appears that they're both way off base in reporting on what Mark Kirk has brought to this district. Footlik should know that it was Congresssman Kirk who got the funding for the double tracking of the North Central line so that where he lives out in Buffalo Grove they actually do have trains that run to the city on a double track. But how would he know that since he's never lived in this district. And then old Dan is clueless and baseless in his bit about SCHIP. I guess truth and accuracy aren't part of their presentations. And this guy is going to Lecture at NU? I think someone needs to get this to the president of NU and find out who in the world extended an offer for him to teach. I'm not kidding. NU is a prestigious center of learning. Well, it WAS a center of learning. So these guys are presenting lots of false data on Congressman Kirk's record. Can't wait to hear Mr. Kirk engage one of these guys and set the record straight. From what I heard on the Tribune editorial board presentation and now this on the spot report from their first meeting......it's just the same old, same old. Two patethic guys without jobs hoping to have this district provide them with one. YIKES.
Just got back from Stevenson and all I can say is how glad I am Congressman Kirk is in office and not Dan Seals.
The place was packed, albeit I am unsure if most of the crowd will be old enough to vote by November.
If you can declare a "winner," it would have to be Footlik, he actually sounded like he knew what was coming out of his mouth. Seals seemed like he didn't want to be there at all and was rather childish during the endorsement segment.
Every answer Seals gave was such a cop-out. He must have had a copy of Obama's talking points with him at the podium. Nothing he gave was original nor constitued "change." With the war in Iraq not the main issue this election, this guy has nothing.
As he listed all of his career achievements, I chuckled to myself, especially when he emphasized being a LECTURER at NU.
These two no absolutley nothing about the 10th Congressional district. For local issues, they both mentioned impact aid, neglecting to mention all the work Kirk has done on the issue. Seals mentioned transportation as the other problem, citing it takes 1.5 hours to drive from Libertyville to Chicago....well what do you plan to do about that?
Footlik's other local issue was environment, but like Seals, had nothing much to say about how he would make it better for 10th district residents.
The two candidates were very good at listing problems, but did not give solutions.
I was planning on heading to New Trier tomorrow for the second debate, but I think a nap would be more eventful than watching these two hash out the same old arguments again.
TA:
I was there and I don't mean to be poltically off-base but can we admit that Seals is not a smart man?
Footlik was well-spoken, better prepared and out organized Seals with a bigger group of Footlik supporters.
As a Democratic voter, I must painfully admit that Dan Seals does not work hard and appears to keep in the shallow end of the intellectual pool.
Anon 10:49- I don't know, maybe I had my expectations for Seals set pretty low, and that's why he seemed halfway decent tonight- better than I expected based on a lot of the video that I've watched of him. He had a ready answer for everything and didn't stumble over any question. He had a few less than stellar moments- as one commentor pointed out, his handling of the endorsements was a little too self-congratulatory. But I guess I was really expecting a few big gaffs, and I didn't really see any. That being said, Footlik was better on his feet and won the debate technically, but I don't think won in the sense that he really energized the Dem base to go out and tell their friends that they absolutely have to vote for Footlik over Seals.
TA,
Great live-blogging job! Thanks for the updates. Every time I hear some (ok most) Democrats talk about Social Security I am struck how singularly ignorant they are. Those people want to raise taxes today, spend the, ahem, "trust fund" today and tax people more further down the road to pay for the promised benefits. Considering that our capitalistic system needs capital to grow and create the jobs that would pay for future benefits their entire scheme makes no sense unless they are actualy trying to bankrupt the system or if they just want to live high on the hog with hopes that someone or something else changes the economic dynamics of our nation so that the promised benefits can actualy be paid. It appears that Dan Seals' education and work experiences did not teach him much at all. This man is to lecture at Northwesern? Well you know what they say about those who can't.
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