Monday, August 25, 2008

Dead Heat Between Obama - McCain Makes It Easy to Measure Convention Bounce

Everyone anticipates this week's Dem festivities at the official coronation of Barack Obama as the Dem presidential nominee will give the junior senator from Illinois a big bounce, as the masses begin to focus on the upcoming general election. But going in, McCain and Obama are in a dead heat. Why?

Even after the much-anticipated announcement of Obama's Veep pick, and the experience and foreign policy credentials that Senator Joe Biden arguably brings to the ticket, why can't Barack walk away with this? The popular polling indicates the country wants a Democratic president, assumedly to repudiate 8 years of George Bush in some kind of national catharsis. But, they can't seem to decide that they want Barack.

This will be an interesting week to measure the bounce Obama is expected to get, beginning with a speech by his wife, Michelle. Just don't dare to criticize her, or you might get a nasty call from Barack telling you to lay off.

But, with the two candidates in a dead heat, and Barack widely expected to hit his speech out of the park, the bar is set pretty high. Anything less than an 8 or 9 point post-convention jump and a killer speech in Denver is going to be considered a setback for the campaign heading into the next big deal, the announcement of McCain's running mate and the Republican National Convention. It's sure to renew the debate over why Barack just can't seem to seal the deal....

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

As merely an observer of the political race,Obama made the biggest mistake by snubbing Hillary Clinton for VP, and I can't believe the callousness of his actions in doing so. I remember when she made the speech saying she was backing Obama for president, and all the cheers they both got together when it happened. Obama was afraid of Hillary being a woman and challenging his leadership.
I'm glad I don't have to live with him!

Team America said...

Anon 1:35- I don't know Barack Obama besides what I see in his public persona, but I don't think he's scared of Hillary because she's a woman. Generally, men that have problems accepting strong and decisive women tend not to marry such types, and say what you like about Michelle Obama, she's clearly an intelligent woman with a very strong and forceful personality.

More likely, Obama never seriously considered Hillary because of WHO she is, primarily Bill's wife, and didn't want to be overshadowed by her in that regard, to say nothing of having his prospective presidency tainted by having Slick Willie anywhere near the White House.

Anonymous said...

Obama did EXACTLY the right thing by not naming Hillary his running mate. His only fear may have been of the 45%+ of the electorate who have strongly negative views about Sen. Clinton. If the Hillaryites truly want to throw the election to McCain, it will only confirm Hunter Thompson's dim views of the Democratic party. As one Southerner who supports Obama, I can only hope that people will realize that budget surpluses are better than deficits, that peace is better than war, that the economy works better when it works for the middle class and those less fortunate.

Lone Wolf a.k.a. RPT said...

They are now saying that 30% of Hillary's voters are NOT going to vote for Barack. That is almost as many that voted FOR B. Hussein Obama during the primaries (don't forget about Florida and Michagin!).

Anonymous said...

It's pretty rediculous to think that Hillary supporters will not vote Obama come November, especially considering that they are similar on the vast majority of issues. I was a solid backer of Hillary, but I could never see myself voting for McCain, he's not someone I can identify with--mostly because I only own 1 house.

Anonymous said...

I didn't expect Obama to choose Hillary as she has a ton of baggage. But Biden?

Biden?

I mean, Biden?

Of all the possible names he could have chosen . . . Biden?

Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

Can you believe it? Louis finally bought a television!

Anonymous said...

Democratic Civil War, Yes!

If this race is close, I could very easily see Hillary voters staying home so that their gal could go for it in 2012. Then the Democratic new guard turns on the old guard and it's on!

Just asking if hot shot Dan is such a big deal,why isn't he addressing the convention the way mark did in 2000?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 4:19

I have several democrat friends who have two houses.

Anonymous said...

Seals can feel the race slipping from him.

Too bad he is in Denver while Kirk dominates the air waves here.

Lone Wolf a.k.a. RPT said...

Anon 4:19, you seem to forget that some Hillary supporters ONLY were supporters because of the gender issue. Now that they have lost that, they are reverting back to the safety net of national security. Terrorism is still a big threat and having a candidate oppose any type of military action as an option doesn't sit too well with mothers with children.

NorthSideSoxFan said...

This election is over if he chose Hillary as V.P. Obama's arrogance will be his undoing, and he picked someone just as arrogant as he is to be his running mate. The Dems have gone to their typical attack line. McCain's an elitest. McCain is out of touch. The class warfare stuff just doesn't fly anymore. And to call someone an elitest who has a son serving in Iraq is absurd. Sell the Hyde Park mansion and move to 95th and Woodlawn Barack before you start throwing the elitism tag. At least you won't have a convicted felon as your neighbor anymore.

Anonymous said...

Also good to see Robert Creamer on t.v with Jan tonight, the first thought for me was the movie office space where the guy asks Ron Livingstone if they get conjugal visits in there.

Anonymous said...

I don't think Hilary voters will necessarily vote for McCain but I do think that they will:

1. Be less than entusiastic supporters of Obama and not work as hard for him (if at all); and

2. A portion of them (yet to be seen) may simply stay home on election day because they haven't been "included" in the fesitivities.

Remember, we are talkin about Dems here who tend to be very emotional and attached to their candidates in a bizzare sort of way...ie, tingles running up the leg when they hear Obama, fainting and the like. Weird birds.

Anonymous said...

Anyone see Kirk on 2, 5, 7 and 9 last night?

No Seals ANYWHERE.

Anonymous said...

Obama has made many mistakes and snubbing Hillary was just one - texting folks at 3:00 a.m. was another. I've been on the fence, having been a strong Hillary supporter and I just can't bring myself around to supporting Obama. He truly is a novice surrounded by a bunch of Chicago pols. Can't do it - going with McCain.

Anonymous said...

Mark is speaking at the RNC on day one which is really good stuff and shows that unlike dan, he's a national leader.

I am also thinking mac's veep will be a women to spite obama and win the feminazi vote.

Anonymous said...

The head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign just spoke to the Convention...and forgot Dan Seals!

On reflection, Dan Seals is forgettable.