Monday, July 27, 2009

Julie Hamos to Announce for IL-10; Bad Day for Michael Bond and Dan Seals

Julie Hamos is set to announce her bid for the 10th Congressional District Democratic nomination tomorrow in Highland Park (h/t Capitol Fax Blog). Hamos appears to have a nice contingent of big Dem names already lined up, including, as expected, State Senator Susan Garrett.

A bad day for Michael Bond, as Hamos sucks the wind out of his campaign, which may have already been stolen by two-time loser and perennial candidate Dan Seals. For now, Bond can't even claim support from his mentor Terry Link, since Link for some insane reason decided to float his name out there as well. Come to think of it, I'm not sure Bond has announced any 'names' behind him at all.

A bad day for Bond, but probably a worse day for Dan Seals, as the eastern/southern edge of the North Shore is where he drummed up most of his support and local money last time. Not sure if Garrett's support of Hamos means Lauren Beth Gash's 10th Dems organization follows, but Gash is important because she has a good organization and nothing better to do than chase the ghost of Mark Kirk.

On the GOP side, former
Porter staffer Bill Cadigan stacks up nicely against Hamos, who will be unable to carry the 'reform' banner with a straight face. Dick Green has been floating his name longer than Cadigan but still hasn't announced, so the Dem field is shaping up more quickly, which is to be expected since most were waiting for Kirk to make up his mind. And we, of course, need to wait and see if Beth Coulson is serious about making a run.

Let's see if Bond and Seals stick it out. Seals has nothing better to do, of course, but Bond could conceivably run back to the 31st District to face Lake County Chairwoman Suzi Schmidt, or run for something else (his website, after all, is "Bond2010", not anything more specific). But he'll have to commit soon.

More later.


tikkunolam said...

Sorry I've been quiet the last few weeks.

I was at the Giannoulias announcement yesterday. Personally, I thought the event went fine. It wasn't enormous, but it was well attended. Sunday mornings aren't really the best time to put together a massive crowd. The attendees did represent the broad base of support Giannoulias will have, even into Kirk's base, as Kirk's (former?) inner circle staffer Aaron Lawlor was seen waving an Alexi for Illinois placard.

There were, as expected, many mentions of Barack Obama. Alexi's an Obama protege, and Obama is incredibly popular in Illinois. I find it difficult to accept criticism of that strategy from this site or the Kirk camp, as, best I can tell from his video and website, Kirk's campaign slogan is "The Change Illinois Needs." Remind you of anyone?

On the 10th, I have to disagree with you on Seals' base of support. If you look at the numbers from 2008, Seals won Lake County and lost Cook. His real, incontrovertible base of support is Waukegan and North Chicago, as it is for every Democrat in Lake County. Indeed, the southeastern part of the district has traditionally been the most loyal to Kirk over the past decade. While Hamos will do well in this area, Seals will still be incredibly competitive, as his district-wide name recognition is through the roof, and his favorability is still high.

As far as money, remember that Jay Footlik outspent Seals in 2008, only to get his rear end handed to him on election day. Bond's presence might actually help Seals, splitting the anti-Seals vote in the primary. Also, take a look at Seals' op-ed in the Tribune from earlier this year. That sort of work is going to make him look pretty enticing compared to two Springfield denizens.

Also, a question: does Beth Coulson live in the district? It's not accusatory or politically motivated, I'm genuinely curious.

Anonymous said...

Alexi is not an obama protege, he is via his dad's mob money an obama donor. Alexi represents the entire state. That's 2 million obama voters and he could only get 200 people. I've seen more people at a kirk townhall meeting in mid july on homeland security.

Hamos has to have her event at the Highland park nature center because unlike mark she doesnt live in the district.

Good points Tikkun, it will be a north/seals south/hamos the hog -west (bond) civil war between the three of them.


Team America said...

Tikki, we missed you and glad your back, but just what the hell are you talking about with Aaron Lawlor being sighted holding up an Alexi sign? Have you lost your mind?

Respectfully, TA

Anonymous said...

Get your eyes checked, tikkunolam, or get some brains in your head. Aaron Lawlor was NOT waving a sign, is hardly in support of Alexi. You hardly represent your blog name. Not even close.

Anonymous said...

Hamos, Seals and Bond all live out of district. This Democrat plans to vote for Eliott Richardson unless one of the three carpetbaggers moves in.

Anonymous said...

Elliot who?

tikkunolam said...

Gentlemen, believe me, I was as shocked as you, but I was at the event. This isn't me relating the word of someone else; I saw him personally. Now, it's my honest guess that Aaron was "tracking" the event, as he has many in the past. I was having some tongue-in-cheek fun with it, because he did leave with an Alexi sign.

Anonymous said...

Then post with honesty and not shtick of the worst kind. He was there, just as a few of Alexi's supporters were at the Kirk rally. But Aaron did not wave a placard or in any way signal support. Shame on you and the name you post with. Get a grip, and post with honesty in the future. You are not funny and you are not clever.

Anonymous said...

Hamos does not live in the 10th

Bond does not live in the 10th

Seals does not live in the 10th

For God's sake, does any Democrat actually live here?

Go Republicans

Anonymous said...

Hamos's real campaign manager is Robert Creamer -- the two-time convicted felon.

Anonymous said...

There is one other name to watch that has been highly discussed in Kirk camps over the years. Ben Lester. He's a u of I mba, navy reservist like mark, ran the 02 campaign, worked at blair where rumsfeld did a 3 year stint after his navy work. Remember the 00 race shaped up as a millionaire fest with some local pols and a waiting game on corinne wood and kennedy until both wimped out and mark came in.

just a thought.

Anonymous said...

Ben Lester is an outstanding, principled young man who would make a great legislator IF that was even a thought in his mind. He does not live in the district these days, came back from serving a year in Baghdad, and I think returned to his position at William Blair. Nice to think about such a great person following Mark Kirk's footsteps, but I think this one is a real leap.