I still haven't gotten the official report from Congressman Kirk (surely I have to be on the must-call list somewhere...), but assuming for the moment that Kirk will run for Senate, where does that leave us in IL-10?
Talking Points Memo already is looking at that picture and offers some thoughts.
On the Dem side, it's good news for everyone, considering the bluish nature of the district. Bond has got to believe he's the luckiest man alive, considering his prospects of winning against Kirk if he stayed home were bleaker than bleak, and it was beginning to look like he'd made a bad move, even though his chances against keeping his seat against County Board Chairwoman Suzi Schmidt weren't much better. That's, of course, even assuming he survived a primary against fellow State Senator Susan Garrett. And then there may still be also-ran Dan Seals, who apparently has been sitting at home watching the kids, just waiting for such a development.
On the GOP side, although there have been a few names thrown around behinds the scenes, everyone has been waiting for Kirk to make his move. If it's now official, I think people will start lining up. Whether a clear favorite will emerge quickly remains to be seen.
And, importantly, will the national GOP abandon the 10th District, which consistently leans Democratic at the presidential level and is a horribly expensive market to campaign in? Or will Mark Kirk be able to command resources to help the GOP protect this seat?
Exciting times, folks. We may have to re-name the blog.
UPDATED 4:00 p.m.: I just spoke with someone from Kirk's team who said that there was no official announcement as of yet.
But I got the feeling it would be coming... stay tuned.
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24 comments:
1. Don't give up the blog.
2. McKenna fired the entire IL GOP staff on friday as was reported on Illinois review. This is a good thing. I suspect Jim McGovern will return with hastert people. I worked in d.c. when hastert reigned, they sold out the party for k-street steakhouses. McGovern is a decent guy but i'd take a clean democrat over a corrupt thug like hastert and his minions.
3. As I have said for MONTHS on this blog, we need to refashion the party. This area was once safe republican. It has decayed over the years and I don't care what Kirk people say out of laziness, Porter was never threatened and spent most of his time on overseas travel. We need to work harder and think deeper.
4. Don't give up on the seat. In 2000 when Mark ran, Lauren beth gash had been prepping to run for years. She had gephardt people with her from day one. Mark had no organization and a bunch of kids named mckiernan,lackey, cholly, bundy, magnuson, hickey, mcgovern, and others who pulled it out for him against her battle tested goon squads.
5. Blago's trial starts next year in june. There is no telling how awful that thing will be (I'm thinking nagasaki) and who will get hit.
6.This is a great time to be a republican. For the first time in a decade No George Ryan, no George Bush, and a democrat party in scandal and failure everywhere. We should look at this as the dawn of a new tomorrow.
FOKLAES
Susan Garrett. She has said that if Kirk jumps ship, she jumps into the race. One issue, however, should be the future of the district itself. Will there still BE a 10th District after 2010? Who knows. Had Kirk remained it was a given that Obama/Rahm et al were going to deep six this district. Kirk's days here would be numbered. If Susan Garrett is holding the seat would there still be the rush to destroy it? Perhaps the arrow will be pointed at IL 6 and Peter Roskam. Again, who knows. As for how Mr. Kirk became our Congressman in 2000, yes, he had a young, eager, ambitious, focused, totally committed bunch of young people who believed, and still do, that Mark Kirk is THE man. Many are still out there, many are still more than ready to stand up and stand with him. Mark Kirk has nothing to lose and everything to gain in going after the Senate seat. If the field can be cleared of clutter, and I don't have to define clutter, he has a more than even shot at it.
Call it the northern Illinois blog and move on.saddens me we won't be in the same congressional districts in 2012, but that's life.
for now, full speed ahead. time to fight alexi, kennedy, bond, garrett, pup.
FOKLAES
TA is right when he says that there is no official announcement from Mark Kirk himself. It's not a game being played, just some political back and forth stuff that makes politics so much fun. Ya, sure. But stay close to this Blog because here's where you will know when IT happens for real.
I'd like to see Rep. Beth Coulson or County Clerk Willard Helander run for the seat.
Dick Green is a business owner of a large and successful company. This Harvard educated economist is based out of Wilmette he has access to his own funds and can raise big bucks. It is time that this blog consider him a candidate for the 10th.
Senator mccain was as liberal a republican as we are going to see for a long time. He got crushed in the 10th. A generic republican has no shot here. Period. This is what happens when a party is allowed to die, thanks to Mark and McKenna. It's sad but the truth.
Thus the only way to hold this seat is with a kirk staffer. Coulson is too liberal for the base of the party, though she might fit too. Anything to the right of her, or a reed bundy/Doug O'Brien type, and you can hand the dems the seat.
Also out my ellen is getting arrogant and snarky. When you lose 5 times, I guess you have to laugh about something.
FOKLAES
don't you ever sleep Folklaes? I totally disagree with you on the staffer idea. Won't work. And those you suggest would be laughed out of any Primary much less getting to a General election. IF Mark Kirk does decide to make the decision to try for the Senate seat he will have an uphill battle against huge odds. But any of the former staffers are simply not able to do be taken seriously. Hard to fathom that Axelrod, Emanuel, Obama or anyone in the White House won't fight like hell to keep this coveted Senate seat in Democrat hands. And that sicko on her Blog gets more out of control. She posts one lie after another. At NO TIME did Kirk signs ever disappear from the Waukegan Road office. She makes a regular habit of spreading falsehoods. Nice for a lawyer or whatever she claims to be. But you're right, Folklaes, she's crazed with 5 straight losses to her credit. That poor cat must take some beating living with her.
Anon 11:40, what the heck are you talking about? It's "about time" this Blog consider Dick Green as a candidate? Kirk hasn't even formally announced anything. Let's wait for the body to cool off.
Beyond that, Dick Green or anyone else who wants the Team America endorsement can line up and explain why they are the best guy/gal for the job. Most of the names being thrown around are people I've never even met, so I have no clear favorite personally. This will be a fun pre-primary season, assuming Kirk pulls the trigger and leaves IL-10 to run for Senate.
A former Kirk staffer like Reed Bundy or Doug O'Brien would have the advantage of his organization here to start with, access to his fundraising network, access to the kirk/porter aura. It's smart.
Bundy is an enviornmentalist with national security credentials, experience on the campaign trail and an ivy league degree. O'Brien has health care bona fides and can campaign like hell. Either man would look good in congress.
FOKLAES
Nope Foklaes, wrong on both counts. Perhaps nice men but absolutely not going to make even a minor dent in anything out here, especially O'Brien. To say that either would inherit the well oiled fundraising apparatus that Kirk enjoys is pie in the sky. Let's wait to see if and when Mark makes his decision. In spite of all the premature media spots saying that Mark is running for the Senate seat, until HE says it, until HE has a press conference to make that announcement, it's not a done deal.
Remember anon, when mark came back to run in 2000 to live in his parents house and run, gash had the best machine a democrat has ever had here, mark damisch had people who liked his piano skills and there were a bunch of people with a ton of money-cox,donnelly. Never doubt the kirk machine-caryn garber is one tough hombre.
Bundy has congressman written all over him. Enviornmentalist, national security credentials, he looks lefty on paper, but can talk tough on taxes. Exactly the kind of republican that drives catlady insane and wins the district.
For the record, Kirk inherited Porters fundraising machine, and Kirk raises a helluva lot more dough than porter did. All Bundy needs is 3/4 million or roughly 3/4 of what mark took in last time. Plus garrett and bond both have springfield ties bundy can just destroy them with.
FOKLAES
State Rep. Coulson could be elected, in the 10th District. She agrees with Rep. Kirk, about many issues, and she's been a legislator since 1997.
Phil Collins
You know, Phil, I have nothing against Beth Coulson, and she might be a great candidate for IL-10, but you are really starting to pollute this Blog (and Cap Fax as well) with piping up constantly to throw her name out there. We heard you. Numerous times.
Please stop it, at the risk of alienating the people you are trying to garner support from (especially TA).
Foklaes, Reed Bundy is a great guy with an impressive background. To compare him to Mark Kirk in 2000 does both a disservice. While Mark was a relative unknown in his own district, he had what others lacked and that was, is, forever will be the intellect and the ability to discuss, debate and convince people that he knows how to do whatever he wants to do. In every debate he became the front runner the moment he opened his mouth. He is just more informed than most, has a unique ability to make most people want to support him.
Gash thought the race was hers, period, end of discussion. She took it all for granted during an uncontested Primary on the Democrat side, remember? It all changed once the General began.
It was a tough, rough battle but again, every time Mark Kirk and Gash debated it was crystal clear who was the clear winner. And he ultimately prevailed.
Times were different way back in the day, this district still had a Republican lean to it. Not so today.
With all the bad behavior of the Democrats in Springfield, if Garrett should decide to run if and when Mark Kirk opts out, she would still enjoy the support of many out here. Face it, she has lots of friends, she's a woman, and so far, no real scandals.
Any Republican has to know that the re-districting planned to impact the 2012 race will cause this area to disappear. Not something to discount on our side.
I'm glad we agree that Reed Bundy is a great young man but I don't think he has any political ambitions, at least not any that we've heard of lately.
Kirk is a genius, but an exceptionally disingenuous one. He is a great politician, who hogs the radio with canned talking points. But he's even better at knowing who to get his picture taken with, for the papers. He's been a flip flopper for years, and for crying out loud, most dye in the wool conservatives don't know weather to love him or hate him. Now the whole of Illinois gets to a chance to judge him, and his astonishing ability to consistently make the most politically convenient choices, i.e., Climate Change Bill. The only question I have left for the rest of you is why on earth should we support a man for Senator, who did not have the guts to declare himself for this race, until the stronger of the Democrats backed out?... He's nothing but a Huskter who represents a diametrically opposite set of voters, with a cunning ability to scratch the interests of the politically active citizen, on both sides of the fence. It’s about time someone called him out for what he is.
Same goes for Garret. What does waiting for a strong incumbent to back out, say about a person's guts to take on the tough fights. say what you will about Bond, but he had the fortitude to declare his intentions before Kirk and Garret did.
Mark hasn't been all that much of a political force. His suburban strategy at the national level bombed. He was beaten by a texas woman for a leadership post in the house, and unlike porter he hasn't shut down the democrats.
Yeah he can tell you what operation mossad did in lebanon in 1989 or who the deputy chief of mission is in mexico city, a woman, FYI, but bundy could be competent too. That campaign he ran in 2000 was as much about gash falling apart and getting hated on as it was about his personal brilliance. Unlike her,whoever runs for the democrats will face hell for blago and springfield.
It's a winnable seat, but no thanks to Mark's failure to build a great political organization or mckenna's animal house performance at the state level.
FOKLAES
Anon 11:03 it's too bad you really don't know Mark Kirk. You clearly do NOT. But I'm not going to debate you on what has made him an exceptional Member of Congress. I'm always amazed at the total ignorance of voters out here on the accomplishments achieved since his election. Perhaps that's something to focus on with TA's permission. You might just have some new found respect for this man once you know what he has accomplished. You must be a devotee of that twisted thing on her blog who delights in trashing every moment of this guy's life. She has misrepresented his votes and all that he had done. He has more than earned the respect of members on both sides of the aisle in DC and back here. When last I checked, he's been re-elected each time he's run. Period.
If you are talking former Kirk staffers, how about Matt Towson? He was Kirk's press guy after Dodie McCracken left, was with Kirk for five years and has a very tight relationship with the Chicago TV media through his work with Mark and a previous career at WGN-TV. He also grew up in the 10th District and knows every local issue in the 10th inside and out. Plus he is a suburbanite with a wife who teaches in Wilmette and two kids. Could help with an NEA endorsement. Could be the perfect darkhorse candidate.
towson is a great guy and one of the best in the biz. Dodie McCracken, yiccck.
actually, there is a post on illinois review, that mckenna is quitting as party chair and coming to run here.
we'll see.
foklaes
If Kirk decides on the US Senate, this will be another hotly contested primary. Best picks include Corinne Wood, Beth Coulson, Bill Cadigan, Daniel Bryant, Arlene Mulder to date. However, I predict new faces jumping in as well.
Worst picks include Doug O'Brien and that Helander women. Don't know Dick Green-can't comment on him.
doug o'brien is the only name on that list that has won anything. corinne wood has been out of politics for 10 years. Good luck to the others.
whoever it is will be pro-choice, pro-enviorment and pro-bably likely to be a pain in her ellen.
Hey TA,
You are right, my post came off too harsh (i.e. "its about time"), but a lot of us are eager to hear the rumors of who is running. Dick Green made an announcement a month or so ago that he would run if Kirk didn't, which if it were my blog would warrant a mention. Its your blog and if you don't want to start identifying the candidates its your blog. But, IMO this is the best repository we have to learn who is running for the 10th, and I encourage you to start identfying who these people are.
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