Saturday, September 19, 2009

Fundraising Key For Illinois U.S. Senate Race; Q3 Reports Will Be Critical

This week, a number of blogs and news articles have revisited the issue of Congressman Mark Kirk's vote over the Cap and Trade bill and wondered whether Kirk's vote will hurt him with conservatives. I think there must have been a lull in the health care debate, since this issue seems to have sprung up again. Even the Daily Herald looked for a few local GOP opinions on the issue to supplement an AP story. I tend to agree with what Lake County GOP Chairman Dan Venturi had to say, which was:

"There's still grumbling, absolutely," Dan Venturi, Lake County Republican Party chairman, said Friday. Venturi adds, however, that Kirk has addressed the matter in a number of public forums and isn't hiding from the issue.

"I think it's the Democrats trying to revitalize a divisive issue," Venturi said. "If they can weaken him in the primary, that would be to their advantage."

Team America was also queried by the DH, and here's what we had to say:

Mettawa resident Larry Falbe, who authors Team America's 10th District blog, said the initial vote startled some Republicans.

"The shock and surprise of most Republicans has long since worn off and they've turned their attention to more pressing issues like health care," Falbe said. "He (Kirk) has worked very hard to explain his position."

This blog has always been more about politics than policy, so while others seem very interested in the debate over whether Congressman Mark Kirk can lure conservatives to his side in the primary based on his ideology, I wanted to remind everyone that a critical component of this campaign is going to be raising enough money to compete with the Democrats in the general election.

So far, it seems clear that Mark Kirk is the only Republican candidate that has any hope of raising the probably $20 million that it will take to be competitive in this race. The Q3 cutoff date for raising funds (September 30th) is coming up awfully fast, and it will be very telling as to what Kirk's GOP competitors will report on the filing deadline October 15th.

So far, from what I can tell from the FEC website (although it can be hard to navigate and I'm never 100% certain I'm interpreting it right), no other GOP candidates had raised enough money ($5,000) to have to report to the FEC as of Q2. While I suspect many of Kirk's competitors will have raised enough pittance to at least file a report, I will be shocked if anyone comes even close to the 7 figures that Kirk will no doubt be reporting.

It's a simple fact that it takes money to compete in politics and get your name and message out. Unless one or more of Kirk's competitors starts raising some serious dough, it's not hard to see where this primary race is headed.


Anonymous said...

Not a shock the DH is quoting you, you get more hits than them and do a better job than them.

The sun-times won't exist next month according to wttw last night so TA, prepare to rise in power.

Mark's going to be the nominee, he's competing with Alexi right now. The conservatives talking out their ellens need to grow up. Without Mark they are looking at Senator Alexi next year.

The real fundraising thing for this quarter is IL-10. Hamos and Seals are expected to pull in about 7-800k each based on past performance. Coulson claims she wants 250k on her website, if she gets anything less than 575k with all the money up here and all her experience, she's a dead duck. Once republican donors find out she was blago's favorite republican, I think she and her chicago thug operatives are finished.

I don't see much enthusiasm for dick green, cadigan is the kind of guy that struggles to raise money and I don't know where dold comes from. Remember, Andy Hochberg had better resources and connections than any of them plus jewish money, and still didn't do that well.


Anonymous said...

Kirk has the advantage that the seven or eight Republicans against him hate each other more than him. He has the only statewide organization and appears to be raising more money than Alexi - the real enemy.

Anonymous said...

Ok then Fukless, where is your candidate who worked at the Red Cross and has oodles of cash?

Anonymous said...


Good call. Much as I am a great movtivator and mover, I can't get someone to do something if they don't want to. There were 2 candidates. 1 is probably out. He was a former Bush 41 senior USAID official in d.c. with district ties. The other was a red cross executive with strong national party ties and leadership experience. The jury is out on that and both would clearly have, I hope won the hearts and minds of king louis,ta, conservative vet, anne sorock, and the ire of Rob_N. I'd Tikun to that list, but he probably won't be able to vote until 2014, earliest. None of the current crop is scaring anyone.

Both had great ethics credentials-certainly better than Pat Collins failed reform illinois bid that cadigan will tout.

Bon soir.


tikkunolam said...

Good one, FOKLAES.

Anonymous said...

Make no mistake...the Kirk organization has been widely recognized as the best in the nation for over 4 years now. They were #1 in money raised on the republican side and #2 overall last cycle. These seasoned workers are focused to repeat and maintain their well deserved title as "THE BEST FUNDRAISING TEAM" in the nation.

I can assure you that they are not looking past the primary to Alexi "The Less Than Great". They will scrap and collect until they hear the whistle blow for the Primary in February, take a well deserved 48 hour break and then sprint to the finish in November. This campaign will need all of us to do all we can to knock down the road blocks of running in a knee jerk blue state but this anonymous blogger feels this is a chance of a lifetime to get Illinois on the right track.

Make no mistake...this campaign team is poised to pounce and bring respectability back to Illinois.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:37--

I'm glad the Kirk "campaign" (if you can call it that) is so paranoid that they need to send staffers/interns to patrol a Conservative blog. That says a lot more then your claims of being 'the best fundraising team' ever could. The DSCC and Organizing for America will be out in force for Alexi, Kirk's chances of outraising him in the long run are slim to none.

Until Next Time,
A Concerned Colonial

Anonymous said...

I look forward to your level of concern colonialism when your Alexi "not so great" gets outraised at the end of this month.

Gee, if he could only give back some of the money he took out of his bank when it was failing.

Anonymous said...

Much as I love the taste of Koolaid (Tikun when you reach 15 we'll teach you about jungle juice) and the sugary sweetness, Kirk wasn't the best funded Republican the last few cycles. Leader Boehner and the NRCC chiefs outraised him and as the only Republican with a major challenge close to one of the 3 major cities, plus jewish money, anything less would have been a dissapointment.

What's more, he had to do it because his political operation failed him, horribly. They didn't build a brand to inoculate him from the inevitable blowback from the bush administration the way blue dog democrat members of congress who sit it deep conservative districts did, and the way mark did for porter, and they arrogantly ignored downballot grassroots work leaving the TA's, King Louis, Baxters mom, Conservative Vet's, Keith Grays, Greg Kazarians, Dave McSweeneys, Tim Strattons, Brenden Appels and others to rot in the wind. He'll pay for this next year when Alexi has ground troops from the garretts and shoenbergs and other thugs and mark has to do it on his own.

This senate race should be a shoe-in for Mark. These people running against him are all buffoons and idiots with nowhere near the credentials that he has. But he hasn't done his homework, his team can't get things like twitter right-lawlor?, there was no need to vote left on cap and trade if he was going to switch his position anyway, he's in big danger if you read cap fax this morning of having the media define him badly already.

He needs right now to work the conservative backroom, get conservatives to get off his ass, and start honing a general election brand. He can't win a general as I said months ago if he's fighting the democrats and the party base-there aren't enough King Louis out there.

He's a good candidate, but he was 10 years ago, he raises money, so did porter, but he hasn't put it away and good candidates like porter do that-he hasn't.


Crazy4glf said...

1. Your headline is just like the Capitol Fax headline with no credit given.

2. The focus on politics in the absence of policy can be seen as simplistic, superficial, and what became a problem for Bush's Administration too many times.

3. It also makes one wonder if the focus on politics/partisan unity led to the overwhelming support of the previous Administration despite his significant spending, minimal strings attached to private/corporate welfare (big government, deviating from long-held beliefs), etc. where the new-found fiscal conservativeness of the avant guard of the GOP is questionable at best.

Let the labeling, distractions, and complaints for my not toeing the GOP line begin.

tikkunolam said...

You're on fire with the jokes this thread, eh, FOKLAES?

Also, Patrick Hughes' new poll (see capitolfax) must be gnawing at your heartstrings, FOKLAES. Kirk's field woes are going to multiply downstate, where folks like Conservative Veteran aren't too chuffed about knocking on doors for a pro-choice, pro-gun control North Shore DC insider.

Crazy4glf said...

I would be remiss if I did not express displeasure at the reference to 'Jewish money.'

Trump isn't Jewish.
Bill Gates isn't Jewish.
The Republican that has run against Mr. Cohen in TN is not too keen on Jews. Yet all of them have an acceptable kind of money where their ethnicity or background never gets mentioned.

Prescott Bush wasn't Jewish, either.

Where are the references to Italian money, Irish money, WASP-money?
Since I'm not seeing this, I am led to believe that there is a hint of disdain or stereotypy towards ethnic groups on this blog and elsewhere.

If I could be a fly on the wall at Todd Palin's or Joe Wilson's group meetings or Prescott Bush's dinner conversations at the 'club', it'd make anything Acorn has done pale in comparison.

I find it interesting that I am the crazy one who deviates from the topic at hand, when the labeling, deviations, myths, and untoward commentary continues by almost everyone else.

Team America said...

Crazy, I've tried to be nice to you, but are you really as dumb as you sound? This post was put up on Saturday (look at the date). Cap Fax linked to it today. Cap Fax used the title of my post as the link. That's how it works, so people can decide if the post interests them, and then they click on it, which leads them here. Rich Miller devised the link, which used MY headline, not the other way around (which is perfectly fine by me, by the way). Please don't imply I'm lifting someone else's work without even understanding how blogs work, biscuit-brain.

Tikki, Pat Hughes' poll doesn't mean squat, as I said today on Cap Fax, unless he can raise millions to get his name recognized and his message out. He can't. Therefore his campaign is DOA. As much as he was a friend of mine in law school, this is a race he can't win.

tikkunolam said...

I don't disagree. I think Kirk's going to win the primary. My point about the poll is more what it means for Kirk's volunteer recruitment in the general. He's going to have to overcome some deep demographic challenges, and he'll need a top-notch GOTV campaign that won't exist, if Hughes' numbers stay true.

Anonymous said...

humor is a big part of success in politics, I love zingers!

As for the far right, back when patrick magnuson was working on his senior thesis at syracuse and dodie didn't yet exist as a pain in the ellen, mark faced a far right challenge from john cox-that era's equivalent of dick green. he thought cox would beat him so porter and porter's ex wife came in and endorsed mark ending the race.

Mark has failed to nail down the base of the party the way he failed to put away the district-Aaron Lawlor where are you? He needs to get a pr team with a clue, get them to dig up his record on defense, veterans, taxes, spending, anti-corruption, the economy, small biz, killing the bridge to nowhere, soft social conservative issues like child predators on internet and run it into every hard right household in Illinois.

He also needs to conduct a behind the scenes p.r. offensive with conservative bloggers and influencers like anne sorock, illinois review, where he presents himself and at least shuts them up if not wins them over. If he can't get the party base behind him, well he could always do what coulson did and suck democrat toes to win, but I don't advise it.

If 2 months from now, Mark doesn't have the far right behind him, he won't win the general. He needs a 65-17 blowout february 3. Then he'll have to pander to them and look like a fool or let them spend all of 2010 kicking his ellen as he moves to the center.

Also because he and mckenna failed to keep a moderate wing of the party there aren't enough moderates around to keep him afloat.

Time to get in the game, put the energy you put in for malaysian microfinance for winning the base.


Anonymous said...


TA the issue isn't hughes. If he beats Mark, that team doesn't belong in politics. The issue is conservatves staying home, ripping Mark, or ending alexi. He needs them full throttle behind him. There aren't enough King Louis's to overtake the chicago machine. Remember in our disrict they get dead goldfish to vote. In chicago they get mickey mouse, goofy, donald duck, alvin and the chipmunks, parakeets and dogs not only to vote but also on the cook county payroll. Somewhat hilarious that those guys can get jobs but Dan can't-a matter for another day, peut-etre.

Also as Republican, frankly it annoys me mark doesn't think he has to win the right of the party. Without them what do we have? Nothing.


Crazy4glf said...

PLEASE tell me exactly when you've tried to be nice to me or anyone that is not a card-carrying GOP'er? (I must have missed the nano-second or it was at 3am.)

Was it your labeling?

Was it the failing to address any substantive issues I've mentioned?

Was it your lock-step GOP approach when be-moaning partisanship on the other side? (By the way, I have yet to see the labeling, the appearance of intolerance by bloggers, and the disdain on any other blog, protest as you might. MAYBE, instead of protesting what is outside of your control, you can get your own house in order if you really want civility and have a preference toward being nice, despite your unique way of showing it. (I know, we need to give you more of a chance to do what is right; it seems to be the mantra lately.)

Being cordial and accepting of others is not 'being nice.' It is what righteous, upstanding citizens do, even when no one is looking. Especially when no one is looking.

Of course, being one who takes a comprehensive approach to things, I know that it could be that members of the GOP should not be expected to refrain from distraction, insults, and claims to be the guardians of good government when it is -government- that they disdain. (For example, changing rules to keep the Dancer DeLay in office).
Maybe expecting some people who live in this region to be neighborly, to be respectful, and to treat others as they'd want to be treated is not something they can handle or something they want to live up to.

References to 'Jewish money,' thugs, and assumptions as to someone's mental state continue to be tolerated if not encouraged by YOU who once asked for some semblance of civility.

Of course, when stating that others are dumb or 'biscuit brains' one cannot expect their suggestions to be adhered to.

If this is what you think of me (will I ever be the same?!), I can only imagine what you think of Glenn Beck who can't get an original, worthwhile idea if they paid him. Oh, that's right, they do pay him. That's accountability, being paid for contributing to the greater good, etc.

But its all a game to you and yours. No one you know needs health insurance. Everyone you know is glad to pay 5%-10% more per year for it. Speculation in housing and energy is perfectly fine. What did oil cost last year? Was it truly only based on demand?

If we do nothing with current policies, Tinkerbell will ensure that costs will not bankrupt households, governments, organizations, and political parties.
Its perfectly ok for us to get a poor return for what we spend on health care and education.
Nothing is wrong.
Hey, since we have nothing better to do, let's start another war, invest MORE in a failed missile system, and tick-off more countries! Of course, missile systems and wars cost money, but if we don't put it in the budget, Cantor, Boehner, and their caucus won't mind.

tikkunolam said...

Crazy, this blog has been pretty nice to me. FOKLAES and I, though of opposite political stances, even exchanged some humor this thread. If you look back through the past few months of threads, you'll see that the only people who have been truly vitriolic towards me personally have been one-time, anonymous commenters. The reason for that is my tone. The common phrasing of this is "disagreeing without being disagreeable." I have certainly stood up for Democratic policies and public servants on this blog, with passion. However, I also treat my interlocutors as human beings as well as Republicans. Again, if you look over the past few months, there have never been any calls, ever, for me to cease posting here, even though I'm a proud Democrat (something I'm actually quite proud of).

In addition to my tone, I've also (for the most part) kept to the subjects at hand. As tempting as the generalization is, just because a subject falls under the term "politics" does not make it germane to a given political conversation. For example, in your last comment alone, you mentioned approximately 11 different public policy issues, all of them federal, when this post and following discussion have been about the Illinois Senate race.

So, keep to the subject, disagree without being disagreeable, and I'd love to have the cogent Democratic back-up. But, if you continue the way you've been commenting, you're quite honestly doing more harm than good.

Anonymous said...

L'Shana Tova tikkun,

How was the kiddie service at Temple beth el? Hopefully you've had enough hebrew school to start to get it. When you atone on yom kippur remember there are a lot of jews in Israel superpissed with obama for selling out our homeland. I'd also apologize for biden, pelosi, dan"I'm for Iran", and that awful governor who'll spend next year in jail.

We got our first good hard look at david hoffman on berkowitz show, which I highly reccomend. The guy doesn't look like a political player which is good news because he could be a pain in the ellen for mark.

Alexi is going to push away from him and I think cheryle jackson splits the lib vote.

Sopranos/Alexi versus band of brothers/Mark for the senate seat. I'm with Major Winters!


tikkunolam said...

Actually, I'm a Temple Jeremiah cat, in Northfield. Service was beautiful, by the way.

As for that Yom Kippur bit... you're playing with the line, man, on the humor side.

On the policy side, I don't see Obama's policies as a sell-out. It's a tricky situation, I don't envy the President on this one. Best thing for peace, right now, is to try and contain hyperbole as much as possible, give Bibi and Abbas a chance to talk. Netanyahu has a chance to play Nixon-to-China and get some real progress... if he thinks he has the political cover.

Also, the word "homeland" gives me some pause. I was in Israel in January (Birthright) and I love the country, I'm definitely a supporter... but I'm also a patriotic American, and the USA is my home.

Team America said...

Tikki- despite FOKLAES's ribbing, I know you're not quite THAT young, and wise beyond your years. Crazy would do well to listen to you.

So, Crazy, I read your response(s) and didn't see anywhere where you apologized for accusing me of copying a 'headline' from Cap Fax. Must've missed it in the 16 pages of crap you posted.

Accusing the blog host of plagerism and then not admitting you were wrong would piss off just about anyone, and I'm no exception.

Anonymous said...


Haven't you figured it out yet? Crazy is just trying to be "cordial"! :-)

Louis G. Atsaves