The Chicago Tribune has released a poll showing fifth term Congressman Mark Kirk of the 10th District with a commanding lead over all other GOP candidates in the race for U.S. Senate. The new poll, which was taken between Dec. 2 through Dec. 8 of 600 likely Republican primary voters, shows Kirk with 41%, with his nearest challengers, Kathleen Thomas of Springfield and Patrick Hughes of Hinsdale, both at only 3%. Bringing up the rear are John Arrington and Andy Martin, each with 2%, and Donald Lowry and Robert Zadek, each with 1%, with 1% voting for 'someone else.' 46% are undecided.
The Trib poll also shows State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias with a good lead (31%) over his nearest opponents, Cheryle Jackson (17%) and David Hoffman (9%), but that race is considerably tighter than the GOP primary.
Interestingly, my law school chum Pat Hughes has been campaigning as the only candidate that can beat Kirk in the primary, but these results don't seem to back up that contention--either in terms of making this a race, or even standing out from the pack of also-rans. Kathleen Thomas, an unknown school board member from Springfield, appears to be doing at least as well. But both are in the basement compared to Kirk.
Pat put a lot of effort into wooing the endorsement of Senator Jim DeMint of the Senate Conservatives Fund but, thus far, DeMint has not endorsed. An article in the American Spectator suggested that DeMint had given up on Hughes, but DeMint's camp stated that he is still "monitoring" the race and hasn't yet decided whether to bet on Hughes. Well, given these poll results, that bet just became a bit more of a long-shot.
Even if a DeMint endorsement eventually came through for Hughes, Kirk has had the support of many other conservative Republican leaders for some time (Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority leader, who is as conservative as DeMint, comes to mind), and most commentators seem to agree that Kirk's lead is safe. Pat has been covering the state trying to garner grassroots endorsements, but also seems to be being beaten handily in the ground war as well (at the last count, Kirk had 15 township endorsements, Pat had 4).
DeMint says "We believe it is too early to count Hughes out." Um, well, with less than 60 days to go before the primary, and with the holidays mixed in, there's very little time for "monitoring" of this race before throwing in or not; it's been full speed ahead for some time now, and if the numbers haven't moved out of the cellar for Kirk's opponents (Hughes or anyone else), it's not likely they will--certainly not in time to make any difference.
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16 comments:
Goodbye Pat Hughes and the other mopes - the GOP has found a winner - Kirk ready to take back the Senate for the good guys.
mcconnell is not a conservative, he's a pork barrel republican.
0 percent must be a record, perhaps the illinois review folks need to take a walk in the wilderness, sing some koombyah and then come back with an idea that their movement is now dead.
I don't think a south carolina republican is going to play here. I may have missed something the last decade, but alan keyes went demint and got 3 votes.
I'm glad to see hoffman fairing poorly. He's a tougher foe than alexi.
FOKLAEAS
McConnell is plenty conservative, he's just 99% conservative as opposed to DeMint's 101% conservative.
What's the 0% you reference?
You can be pro-life and run your campaigns on shoveling pork home. it's politics 101. Most southern republicans represent states that are welfare recipients of the federal government like mississippi with people like mcconnell and hal rogers who see their job in washington to bring bacon home. It's inside baseball but still part of the game.
the 0 percent is in the cross tabs of the pdf on the upper left hand side of the tribune story. if you scroll down to cook county=page 5- hughes is at - or 0 support. Mark is at 62.
FOKLAEAS
Got it,FOKLAEAS, thanks. I changed the top link of my post so it points to the Trib story directly and not the Chicago Breaking News page, which doesn't have the PDF.
The conservative GOP savior is only polling 3 percent?
Hughes walked into the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Womens Republican Club on Saturday morning. Came in with a scowel and snapped at a couple people present who weren't supporting him. When he was announced he waved to the crowd with a big frown on his face.
Not a good way to get people to vote for you.
The other candidate present for US Senate was Andy Martin, who was smart enough to smile and turn on the charm.
3 percent?
Those campaign tactics are sure working wonders!
Louis G Atsaves
Hughes at 3%, with a 38 point deficit to Kirk, less than 60 days out.
"Monitor" that, Senator DeMint.
A DeMint endorsement won't matter anyhow, unless it literally comes with a million bucks. And I doubt DeMint is going to diminish his brand (nor his bank account) by supporting a loser.
Remember the Ditka non-endorsement/endorsement? How much money did Ditka raise for Hughes?
King Louis, your efforts are paying off for commander Kirk. When it is all said and done and more people join the bandwagon as he becomes a national star it will be rememebred that in his darkest days of 05-08, you and team america and mrs. team america stood with him against the left wing onslaught.
fan of king louis astaves the ellen and alexi slayer
I believe the Illinois Review folks are beginning to catch on that while Paul Caprio had 6 years to come up with someone, the best he could do was Hughes. I've been raising that point with them over the past few days--and they've been fairly quiet, which is surprising.
As we've been discussing on CapFax, it's not a surprise, however, that Cheryle Jackson is doing better than Hoffman at this point, which I predicted along with Rich a while back. I hope someone's thinking about that. You shouldn't brush her off; I think they may be planning another "Obama" move. We started thinking about him during Ryan's race way too late.
Anonymous?
[the following comment has been edited to conform with TA's blog rules]
I don't think da coach gives two hoots in hell for Hughes. I know he hasn't done any fundraising for that loser. I'm at a loss to understand how anyone with a brain could vote for that lunatic,[other candidate's name]. That guy belongs behind bars, strong ones. If we can circle the Kirk wagon and pull together we have more than a chance to win this Senate seat. I hope that Hughes and the others decide now, with 50 days to go, that they should support Mark's candidacy and work like hell to get him to win the Primary with numbers that will suck every bit of wind out of Alexi and his followers. Now is not the time for game playing.
[TA's editorial note: Tut, tut- no name calling on my blog, especially of someone who might take disproportionate offense.]
No one is going to give a candidate in that kind of political trouble any money and pat hughes will not spend 500k to buy himself 2 weeks of ads. Mark should have a pow wow with him and brady, get them to sing koom byah, smoke a peace pipe and let hughes know that he will be a valued member of the team going forward or get a post on some bull shit advisory board the next time we get the white house.
I would love to fight jackson, black people dont vote in off year elections and she told the tribune al qaeda was never in afghanistan.
FOKLAEAS
When you have the extreme right wing supporting Huges he won't give up the fight. They have convinced him he can win because he is "their kind of Republican." If you don't subscribe to their extremism you are not Republican. Trust me, while in my neck of the woods they tolerate me, they really don't trust me and are convinced I'm not a republican. Instead of working for the best candidate who can win (and that's our Congressman)they will continue to work for their right-winger who can't. It's principal over winning -- Mark Sanford asked that question at the Lake County Republican Federation Dinner and we all know how he exploded.
Remember Ronald Reagan's words -- "if you agree with someone 80% of the time that's good." That's the way I look at things.
Merry Christmas everyone!
Baxter and Beau's Mom
Pat Hughes was “finished” the day he announced his candidacy.
D-Day for Mark Kirk starts December 28th when we begin our media campaign to take the "undecided" vote and convert it into "Andy" voters. By polishing off my competitors for the anti-Kirk vote, the Tribune “poll” has done me a great service. Stay tuned.
Eat your hearts out Kirk supporters. The Kirkster is just as much of a fraud as Hughes.
Andy Martin
Republican for U. S. Senator
Andy Martin
Since 59% of the Republicans, in the poll, don't support Rep. Kirk, I hope that they will unite and support Don Lowery, the conservative, in that race, who had the most political experience. He was a state's attorney and a judge. He's pro-tax cuts, pro-spending cuts, pro-life, pro-gun rights, and anti-illegal alien. He was in the army, with tours in Korea and Vietnam. Please read his site, www.JudgeLowery4USsenate.com.
Conservative Veteran
I think I understand why you chose to print that ridiculous post from Mr. Martin. I am sad, however, to read his statement. No additional comment is needed.
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