Now that Christmas is past, and the New Year is almost upon us, the next thing we can look forward to is the reporting of this past quarter's fundraising results. Two races that we are especially interested in, of course, are the U.S. Senate race and the IL-10 race to succeed Congressman Mark Kirk.
In the Senate battle, Dem Alexi Giannoulias was last quarter's fundraising champion on the Dem side, but has been spending money like water to fend off a strong challenge from former U.S. Attorney David Hoffman. While I have little doubt that Alexi had another strong quarter (he can always generate the cash, it seems), I'm more interested to see if Hoffman raised any money of his own, and even more interested to see how much they each spend trying to trash each other. Of course, the heat will get turned up even more this next month, but we really won't know much about the post-Q4 numbers until after the primary is over and the vote is in.
On the GOP side, we expect Congressman Mark Kirk to have another huge fundraising quarter. I am quite confident that none of his competitors will even come close.
The other race that will be interesting to watch is IL-10, where Seals vs. Hamos and the posse of GOP contenders will be spending every dime they have to get over the finish line in February.
Any predictions for what the Q4 results will reveal?
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I think the candidates have the option of filing a consolidated Q4 and pre-primary report that extends the reporting period to the middle of Jan.
Interesting, thanks for the info.
I believe, however, that those candidates that are successful at Q4 fundraising will announce it quickly. And loudly-- Regardless of what the drop-dead reporting dates may be.
Those that don't, we probably won't be too concerned about in the future anyway.
I think everyone will wait until after school resumes next week if its good news. most people are still away and this being the north shore, in places far away. plus a lot of the press is gone.
I expect green and dold to self fund. you need to have 250-300k minimum so friedman won't do it.
coulson may raise north of 125k but I doubt it.
also realize this takes into account 6 weeks of holiday season which is awful for fundraising.
marks numbers dont matter. he's in to the next round and at this point its about conserving resources for the onslaught that will hit him.
FOKLAEAS
comment moderation is weak.
if there are morons delete them after the fact otherwise, don't go pravada on us. weak.
FOKLAEAS
FOKLAEAS- I know you HATE comment moderation, but deal with it for now, OK? You would not believe the stuff that I've had to intercept the past few days. Anytime gay issues or Andy Martin is the topic, people lose some perspective. Combine the two issues and it's a recipe for disaster.
Hopefully things will calm down in a few days.
Will Arie Friedman report the $250.65 he raised at his hugely successful $25 fundraiser at Flatlanders last week?
Team,
I am with you comrade. Perhaps in the future they will create a device so that king louis, baxters mom, conservative vet and I can post without filter while the cat lady clones who come here talking out of their ellens are denied.
FOKLAEAS
"Will Arie Friedman report the $250.65 he raised at his hugely successful $25 fundraiser at Flatlanders last week?"
Whoever made that statement isn't very Noble. Though I Grant you that politics can be pretty cutthroat sometimes...
I am wondering if Kirk will stay in the race. I think it has become clear that he can not win the election. Maybe the republicans should look for a new candidate who would be more competitive against Giannoulias or Hoffman. Kirk would lose to either by a landslide. Happy new year.
Arie, has been telling everyone that he is viable, yet hasn't told us how he plans to fund his race. Poorly attended $25 fundraisers would be ok if he were running for state rep., but he is asking Republicans to choose him without proving that he can raise any money.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3276610&id=161876923033
The picture above is the most flattering picture of Arie's one and only fundraiser event this election cycle. This should cause worry.
How horrible would it be if Republicans voted for a candidate in the 10th who cannot raise money. Arie owes it to Republican Primary voters to reveal his fundraising.
AF apparently scares the hell out of some Dold/Coulson lackies on this list (and who can blame them). Yes he got in late and so has less money for the primary. That's it. That's the one negative thing you can say about him. And that's why the lackies are scared because they know he is going to blow them away even with their lame "media campaigns." Does anyone truly believe the $$$ will not pour in starting Feb 3rd? No amount of money can give a weak candidate the right experience and charisma and demographics to win.
Arie's whole "got in late meme" is tired. He has been in long enough to show that he can raise money. If he doesn't report what he has raised, then he should withdraw from the race. He cannot in good conscience ask Republicans in the 10th to vote for him without proving that he can raise money, or he must give us a coherent argument as to how he will do it.
It is so naive to think that $$ will just come pouring in on Feb 3rd. There are sooooo many competitive races in the country in 2010, and this market is soo expensive, that the outside money will not come pouring in to a candidate who cannot raise his own money. Ask Steve Greenberg in the 8th last election cycle. Arie hasn't been in the game very long, so you can pardon his naivety, but Republican voters in the 10th should think twice.
It is Arie's fault that he joined the race late, nobody else's. It is Arie's inability to raise money that causes the concern, not anyone else's media strategy. The rhetorical deflection of annon, does not hide the fact that Arie appears unable to raise money. Do we want to nominate a candidate who is an unproven fundraiser??
Arie has to come clean. Have you raised any money? How much? If not, how do you plan on funding a general election? Are we to believe that the magic money fairly will just pour money into the race? If "the Feb 3rd magic money fairy fundraising strategy" is Arie's fundraising strategy, why hasn't he done the right thing for the Party and dropped out?
Weak candidates can't raise money--be they Oberwiess, some poor shlub or something in between. Fundraising prowess is a very strong indication of electoral viability. So says
The Oracle
If I were a dold or coulsonor green supporter i would be wondering why my candidate doesn't have the guts to go on the berkowitz show and answer questions. I would be worried less about my opponents fundraising. The tribune editorial board the three of them did was everything that is wrong in the gop today-candidates who aren't articulate, who are braindead on ideas, and who have talking points from the disco era.
Nothing I have seen from dold or green in anyway suggests they have the ideas, energy, charisma or articulateness to be a serious general election candidate. dold has white teeth, brown hair, an attractive family and not much else. They have money, big deal. Ask congresswoman shawn margaret donnelly how good that is. the sum total of green's campaign is regurgitating talking points an intern could write and writing checks from his bank account. A parrot could do that. dan seals is going to run laps around him in a debate like prefontaine against a 90 year old woman in wheel chair.
For the coulson folks I struggle to see what you are still doing in the republican party. she's a woman, yeah I got that, and she barely won a seat that used to be blood red republican territory by using endorsements from chicago machine democrats, i got that. I don't get where she's been in springfield the last 8 years while democrats have destroyed the state. if she can't hit minor league pitching in springfield, i am not so high on the notion she'll be able to beat back pelosi in d.c.
i dont know anything about friedman, he has half a brain, but an organization good enough to win a highland park city council race. but at least he has half a brain.
foklaeas
Which 1/2 of Arie's brain told Republican committeeman at a forum that after reading a James Mitchner book, he believes that we are just months away from World War III? Can you say "loose cannon"
I agree that Dold is a bit light on ideas, but he is articulate. Coulson is the wrong party. Green, I think, is biding his time.
they've been in the campaign for 6 months. biding time is goofy. dold is too light-he threw no punches at coulson in the tribune thing which i disturbing because pup wakes up in the morning crying and attacking and whining, and dolds videos look, eh.
agreed on coulson. pathetic to have machine democrats running her campaign.
FOKLAEAS
Months away from World War 3? Please, TA, let's have you exclude the wackos from the conversation, ok? I have heard AF talk about the instability that could develop in the region if we don't deal with Iran and leave it to Israel, but some guy in the frigging NYTimes has said the same thing. (Also, is that a T-10 running in the thumbnail?)
Anon 12:50 - I even let Andy Martin comment here, so I am reluctant to start censoring people simply for their opinion. Ellen has the corner on that market.
Not a Tartan- it's a Yankee Dolphin.
Remember, everyone, feeeding the trolls just makes them hungrier.
fyi Friedman haters, a staffer of his texted me that they have been getting more maxd out donations in recent days, including the likes of Jim Pritzker.
Well, I certainly do hope Arie publishes his fundraising totals. Its one thing to anonymously post them on a blog, quite another to report them to the FEC like Arie's opponents did last quarter.
I'm confused - doesn't everyone have to report fundraising totals to the FEC?
Not until you reach a certain threshold, which I believe is $5000.
yes, but if you raise less than 5k or start your campaign late you dont have to. friedman will have to have a day of reckoning next week when his fec numbers come out.
to the original question, after a morning of drinking chimay and eating deerfields coffee cake (I reccomend the chocolate long cakes), I have decided to announce my answers.
250k for coulson-she's been in politics more than a decade in the wealthiest district in the state. if pup can come out of nowhere and get feminazi soccer moms to cough up 300k a quarter, she should be able to do better. plus republicans are pissed.
350k for dold. if you read the info on the internet about his parents you realize that a) they are north shore establishment b)they used to run a major trade association meaning they have contacts of wealthy small business owners all over the country to feed money to him. c)he went to 3 post-secondary schools meaning 3 networks, 2 of which are private. that's a lot of mba's, lawyers, ect to call.
100k for freidman-he's got to show he's got more than 2 facebook photos. ask democrats what happens when you run a lee goodman type.
50k for green, he's writing checks for his campaign so I doubt he's spent anytime fundraising. also he ran a small business he created and went to harvard which is a liberal bastion of folks unlikely to donate to republicans.
FOKLAEAS
Arie didn't report because he hadn't raised any money raised by September 30, since he had just started out.
But, he has now had three months to raise money, approximately the same amount of time the other candidates had when they reported September 30th. Arie owes it to Republican voters to report promptly and not a consolidated Q4, so that Republican voters can get an idea of whether he can raise any money.
Otherwise, Arie will keep his apparently weak cards hidden all the way until just about election day. He won't be able to reach enough voters with no cash (who knows, maybe the dude will spend his kid's college money to buy some commercials, I dunno, because he hasn't told us how he plans on funding his campaign). Republican voters cannot accept this. We need to know if this guy has the ability to raise money, so that we can be assured that we will have a candidate with the resources to defeat Pup/Hamos.
Arie's supporters are wrong when they insinuate that the money fairy will just pour down cash on Arie just because he wins the primary. Major national donors will want to see a candidate who can raise most of the money on his/her own.
Arie must do the responsible thing and give the voters the information they need to make an informed decision.
My guess is that Arie has raised from outside donors no more than $55,000. Oops, $55,250.65, I forgot about the Flatlanders fundraiser. He could probably self fund up to $50,000-$75,000, depending on how reckless he is about this dream that came to him three days before petitions were due.
Hypothetical Question: Say Arie drops out of the race (not saying that he will), and doesn't endorse anyone. To whom do his 6% of the votes go?
Waddya think, foklaeas?
I don't see why everyone is getting so worked up over Friedman. Is he really a legit candidate? I haven't been reading the blog recently - vacation and all - but I thought the sense of things a few weeks ago was Friedman couldn't win the primary. Period.
Are people worried he takes away from Dold and gets Coulson in? Shouldn't we ask Green and Friedman both to bow out for everyone's best interest? Let Dold and Coulson fight it out center/left vs center/right?
Am I missing something here?
Anon 3:15 What is great about this country is that anyone can run for a free and public office...not just those established, entitled, or personally wealthy. We should laud those that put their hats into the ring and appreciate the sacrifices their families make. No candidate is going to bow out with 30 days to go --Coulson/Dold/Green have money and AF has momentum. They certainly aren't going to drop out because a few bloggers think it is "best" for the Republicans in the 10th. Sometimes those too close to the fire can't feel the heat. The previous postings by the same author talking constantly about money, money, money fail to mention demographics, demographics, demographics. Green and Dold lose big to Hamos. Coulson keeps it close. AF makes it interesting. Go drink some champaign...Happy New Year!
Good point. I've been wondering myself how many of the TA "pundits" have every run for office or done anything more than phone-bank for a campaign.
Certainly Dold/Coulson/Green/Friedman and, yes, even Hammon, are the ones out there putting it out on the line. Hats off to all of them (and Bill Cadigan, who was my personal favorite!).
For example, I'd like to see some of the "smart" guys on this blog go a round with Berkowitz and not say something they regret. I haven't seen anyone accomplish such a feat yet (and I've watched dozens of his shows) but I'm sure y'all can do better than Robert did...
Look I understand that Dold people wish the race was decided based on Q4 funding results. We all know that he was born with the proverbial silver spoon and his pa's connections have garnered him money. This is not the same as garnering meaningful support; it's more like self-funding. It is laughable to suggest that this district will not attract many millions (that is if we have a candidate who has the right qualities).
Yes I've done national campaigns, yes I am smart enough to know that berkowitz will
1)bitch about other people who don't come on his show.
2)ask you for a brief autobiographical sketch
3)ask you about 4-5 of the major issues of the day (scary)
4)ask you some esoteric question about political economics to show that he went to university of chicago so he can mention it, three times.
5)probably rip your opponents. how awful.
6)pull a chris matthews and answer half of his questions before you respond.
7)ask you about your education so that he can refer to his own education.
It's no different from any coffee you'll have on the north shore. he's a decent guy, probably a moderate republican, and considering that there will be 45 debates in the general with the democrats having trackers at all of them it's not that hard to do or bad. This isn't the south side of chicago where people can barely read or the 9th where people can barely think, you need to be good and if you are good enough to do berkowitz, you are probably in good enough shape to kick ellen in the general.
having friedman in the race is good for the other candidates because it forces them to be stronger on foreign policy and israel to not look stupid compared to him. Reed Bundy is available for questions as are hacks at aei.org, csis.org, heritage.org for updates.
FOKLAEAS
I'd like to add that I think this thread has gotten very democrat in how nasty people are referring to all of the candidates. Sarcasm and insult should be left to that other forum.
For the record, I am a Dold supporter. Robert is a great guy, very charismatic, smart, and a great fundraiser (and no, not all of his money is coming from his Dad's friends, but so what even if it did).
That said, I have met and respect everyone else (except maybe that Bird lady. Hammon, I'm not so sure about either).
Green is pretty intense, but very devoted to his issue of deficits and taxes. I'm not going to fault him for that!
Cadigan was a really decent smart guy. He was right to get out and did it in an honorable manner.
Coulson. Well, I don't agree with her on a lot of things, but she would definitely be better than the alternative. I also have nothing against her personally.
Friedman. I know for a fact that he and Bob like each other a lot. How do I know? I've seen them together a few times and can tell that they approve of one another. I personally hope Friedman feels good enough about Bob that he will campaign for him actively (particularly in the Jewish community) come the general.
So, let's be a bit more analytical and a lot less scathing, sarcastic, and, well, democrat-like, in our tone.
Just my two cents.
Friend of Dold (with a D!)
Hm. Wonder how many of the truly sarcastic posters are double agents. Seems like they rarely tear into Beth - they probably like her too much to get really motivated.
Confusion to our enemies and all that rot.
Just for fun: I've worked on campaigns at various levels (though I'll admit I have little tolerance for "local" campaigns and politics). While I've made limited phone calls, they've been for fundraising purposes to those on the "top of the list".
With regard to Berkowitz, I think he's a great guy. Great show that certainly does "it's part" to inform voters--and just a very "compassionate" and kind gentleman overall, if you will.
Sorry. 5:20 pm = Anonymous?
1.dol with a d would be smart if a)it was 1996 and anyone remembered who bob dole was b)this was a durkin-durbin fight c)it didn't re-enforce an image that he was a yesterday republican.
2. I am a fuzzy teddy bear compared to what's coming in a general against dold. pictures of rodents on t.v., having bush on his c.v, among other things. he needs to show he can hit major league pitching.national politics like college admissions at new trier is a blood sport.
3.the one time he's had to do anything without his family's inheritance, the tribune thing, he flopped big time. I like republicans that lay the wood (see america, team, astaves, king louis, gray, keith, isackson, johnny, corker, bob) and knock a donkey out cold. I don't know how you light a fire under a guy like dold.
Happy new year to all of you. next november is going to be the first happy november in 6 long misreble years and I for one am looking forward to seeing more stories on this blog about politicians with (R-IL) or (R-17) in them starting a year from now, not to mention the increase in prescription medication sales to a certain nutlady as she struggles to cope with actual republicans in government again.
FOKLAEAS
Our district is blue. A typical Republican should run in central / southern / western Illinois. We have a charismatic-Jewish-Veteran running and some aren't taking him seriously? Is the goal keeping the district Republican or nominating a 'traditional GOP candidate'? We would only have ourselves to blame if we nominated the wrong candidate For This District and lost this seat in November...
Forget Dold or Friedman. Let's nominate Dede - I mean Beth. She'll solve all our problems!
People are taking all three of these candidates seriously - just maybe not in these comments sections. Funny that the level of discourse at my local bar is about 100 times more elevated than on this political blog. Seems the ordinary citizens are trying to figure out who they want as a nominee while the commenters here are primarily interested in landing cheap shots.
But that is probably explained by the fact that maybee two commenters here total aren't sock puppets working for one candidate or another.
I'm more of a real live pain in the ellen than a sock puppet.
foklaeas
I think you guys are way off. Arie knows a lot of doctors who have money, so he has probably raised more to the tune of $175,000. That is enough for him to get his message out there.
I don't know why people think that Julie Hamos is so competitive in the 10th. She is Democrat equivalent of a right-wing extremist. GOP has been smart not to put on the ballot anyone who is far right. Everyone of the Republican candidates is fairly moderate. The Dems have put a far left Shakowski clone on the ballot and may even nominate her.
She is way too far to the left to appeal to the independent minded centrist 10th Congressional District voter.
The 10th isn't far left liberal, its centrist and independent.
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