As reported yesterday by the non-partisan National Journal, a brand-new internal poll done by McLaughlin & Assoc. shows Mark Kirk still holds a wide lead over Dan Seals (53%-32%, +/- 6%), despite the recent hype over Obama presumptively securing the Dem presidential nomination, and the conventional wisdom that the Barack Obama tide will lift all Dem boats, no matter how unseaworthy. In fact, compared to the last Kirk poll, despite months of campaigning and trying to ride Obama's coattails as much as possible, Kirk and Seals each gained the same 3 percentage points.
Seals better have a better strategy than simply reminding voters at every opportunity that he thinks he looks like Obama. Voters in the 10th District are way too smart, as a group (and love to split their tickets to prove it), to simply go like lemmings over the cliff for Seals, even if Obama wins the district handily.
The Dems wasted no time trying to spin their way out of this, and claim that Kirk's 53 percent simply must be his ceiling, while Seals' abysmal name recognition (30 points lower than Kirk's) simply means Seals has plenty of room to grow.
Update on Obama's stutter-stop explanation of his VP team: As we noted yesterday, the video of Obama bumbling his way through his explanation of why Jim Johnson's reported receipt of preferential loans from Countrywide Financial Corp. was no big deal (among other gems, the 'they're not really working for me' is a classic) is really making a hit, at least in the Blogosphere.
But it's not the just the Internet political junkies who have noticed, as it turns out, because it was only a short while before the Obama bus ran right over Johnson, barely slowing down. For those of you keeping score, this is the first corpse hit by the bus in the general election, but the body count runs way higher (as Michelle Malkin puts it, it's getting awfully crowded under the bus) if you've been keeping up with this, including Reverends Wright and Pfeleger, as well as grandma.
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14 comments:
Kirk is now more popular than Sen. Obama in the district. Dan Seals has been unemployed for three years, got over $100,000 in Democratic party ads against Kirk last month and wiped out in the Seals "Gasgate" gasoline-for-votes stunt.
Looks like the Seals campaign is weaker than when he lost last time and Kirk is strengthening.
Kirk had a tremendous boost of support at the AIPAC policy conference.
Yes BUT...it's a LONG way from today to 11/4 and while I know we all know it, we can't, won't, will not stop doing all we can and more to secure Mark's 5th term in Congress. Getting out our vote, letting the newcomers to this district know how spectacular a leader we have working for us in Congress has never been more important.
Our Congressman was the 'talk' of the aipac policy conference. Each year he enjoys standing ovations for his presentations, this was just louder because he did two back to back sessions and the attendance topped 7,000.
We just can't afford to rest on our 'laurels' from today through election day. We won't. There is way too much at stake.
Seals needs to fire his manager -- things are going in the wrong direction. Kirk could win this in the best year for Democrats.
Rep. Kirk and his supporters cannot get over confident. They get to get out each and every day between now and November 4th. Kirk can take nothing for granted.
On the Swing State blog, a commenter asked the following question:
This may be ignorant but how does a candidate who won 47% of the vote last cycle trail in name recognition by 30 points? That seems bizarre to me.
I think the answer is obvious, given a moment's thought. A large percentage of the voters last cycle were angry and voting for the guy with a 'D' next to his name, not because Seals was Seals, or Kirk was Kirk. The issue is, was 2006 as bad as it could get for Republicans? Or is 2008 just a continuation?
Senator Durbin's finance people are openly dissing Dan's team's work so you know, despite that Woody Guthrie saying that there are problems at team seals. Whether they are gash sized problems is unclear.
It's important to remember that most House incumbents who didn't expect to lose in 2006 and thought that their local experience and nutjob netroots neophyte (Seals would personify this) opponents would get them over the top, had similar numbers going into October, they now are ex-MOC's.
They also had the benefit of goodies such as massive cr infusion, an RNC with no presidential race freed up, a loaded NRCC, Ken Mehlman's gotv, bush appointees, staff from safe districts, the power of the house majority to get bills, grants, and instant fundraisers, coordinated state campaigns ect, and part of the cycle where the party was not in the dump.
Mark will get none of that, thanks to the joke we have as our national party leadership. Dan is also likely to get an awful lot of goons coming up from cook county at the behest of their patrons who tell them their jobs picking up trash or picking their noses in state offices are in jeopardy if they don't canvass for him.
In short in 2000, 2002, 2004 this would be where Mark needs to be, but this is 2008, and where he needs to be is 60-20 where is foot is firmly on Dan's neck keeping any national oxygen from getting to the rest of the body.
Lots of talk in the DCCC about other Democrat candidates doing better than Dan.
Fire your manager Dan!
Chances are those Cook County/Chicago workers who popped up over here last election to help Dan Seals will be heading south to help Debbie Halvorson against Ozinga.
Ozinga is running a pretty focused and well finances campaign right now. Halvorson is also being tarred and feathered by her Blagojevich connections and support including her famous 1 year stall of the ethics bill, which the State Senate finally voted on after they watered it down.
Halvorson is also a pet of Emil Jones and the Daley family. She did their bidding on their personal projects and bills and held key positions in the State Senate as a reward for her loyalty to her bosses.
We may end up seeing a whole bunch of workers and money heading that way instead of towards the 10th. Halvorson is a known commodity as compared to Seals. The seat is up for grabs as Rep. Weller is retiring.
Just saying and thinking out loud here.
Louis G. Atsaves
Why is Rep. Kirk a Republican, although he's more liberal than many Democrats? He's pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage, pro-spending increases, and anti-Iraq surge. Last year, the Illinois Minuteman said that they "denounced" him. In 2007, I emailed him, three times, and I asked why he's a Republican. I didn't receive a response. I emailed one of his aides, Eric Elk, and I asked him why Kirk is a Republican. I didn't get a response.
Lake County Conservative
Hey bloggers, stop saying Seals should get a new campaign manager. He just might get someone who knows what he's doing.
Baxter's Mom
Hey Lake County Conservative:
WAKE UP!
Stop being the jester in the Republican party. You need to understand that your brand of so-called "conservatism" is being rejected by voters.
WAKE UP!
To undermine Mark Kirk and allow a super liberal like Seals to get elected in his place is harmful, destructive behavior on your part.
WAKE UP!
You e-mailed Mark Kirk three times and asked him why he is a Republican?
WAKE UP!
Send me your e-mail address and I'll e-mail YOU three times and ask you why you think you are a conservative who claims to be a Republican.
I bet I'll never get an intelligent answer out of you.
Louis G. Atsaves
Louis, you should wake up and read my last post. I never considered undermining Kirk and helping Seals win. I agree that Seals is very liberal, and I hope that he loses.
I'll gladly tell you why I know that I'm conservative. I'm pro-tax cuts, pro-spending cuts, pro-life, pro-death penalty, pro-Iraq war, anti-illegal alien, anti-affirmative action, and pro-gun rights.
Lake County Conservative
Yes, LCC, but I think Lou's point is really that there is no way a staunch conservative candidate can win in the 10th. As I've told you over at Capitol Fax Blog (but apparently it didn't sink in), Kirk is the most conservative politician that has any hope of getting elected in IL-10. If you can imagine any scenario in which it's realistically possible for a super-conservative candidate to win, please tell me. Otherwise, by attempting to draw away from Kirk's base to make a point (or whatever goal you actually have), you may find yourself dooming yourself (and the rest of us) with a liberal nightmare. Is that really what you want?
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