Continuing our Thanksgiving weekend tradition, now that we've had a chance to recover somewhat from the recent election, and also since we have digested yesterday's scrumptious turkey & fixin's, we offer a few thoughts on the next election cycle for further digestion and comment. And, as many people are aware, the specter of the next redistricting looms over everything... and while it won't really affect the 2010 cycle, the 2012 political landscape may be unrecognizable in some areas compared to today...
10th District: We've already covered this in some detail, but suffice it to say that the Democrats threw everything they had at five-term incumbent Congressman Mark Kirk, and his two-time loser challenger, Dan Seals, did not even do as well as he did against Kirk in 2006, despite Obama-mania. That means that Seals is quite unlikely to try to make a third appearance; if he does, he will be the subject of abject scorn and will likely face a primary challenger. Is Jay Footlik still interested in the 10th, by chance? Some commentors have suggested that given his work as a foreign lobbyist, that's pretty much the kiss of death, but I'm not so sure. I imagine, though, that the 0-for-5, bitter, scorned and generally pissed-off former candidate Lauren Beth Gash, is already looking elsewhere for someone, anyone, who she can promote to finally beat Mark. All of this is assuming, of course, that Kirk does not answer the siren's call of running for either Senate (against the eventual appointee to Barack Obama's vacated seat) or for governor.
Redistricting Effect?-> Will the 10th cease to exist in 2012? We expect to lose one Congressional seat in Illinois due to the anticipated results of the 2010 census. It may be that the 10th District continues, but additional democratic voters are added from adjoining districts to try to further enable the dems to finally pick off this Dem-leaning district.
8th District: TA hears that Steve Greenberg is not running again, but one never knows. Melissa Bean has moderated to fit her district, which in turn has moderated towards the center (from a once solid-GOP district when Phil Crane held the seat). The GOP needs to find a candidate now, preferably a woman, and needs to stop considering only self-funders, who (based on candidates like Ozinga and Oberweis) often seem to prove that deep pockets do not an electable candidate make.
6th District: Peter Roskam seems now well-entrenched in Henry Hyde's former district, but TA hears the Dem plan may be to combine Roskam's and Judy Biggert's district, and eliminate one GOP congressional seat that way.
Lake County Board: State Senator and evil Dem chessmaster Terry Link did a good job in orchestrating a changeover in four county board seats, which leaves the GOP with a bare majority on the county board. It's a shame they used lies and dirty politics to do it, but that's the Link machine for you. Look for the Dems, led by senator Michael Bond, to come loaded for bear to try pick up at least two more seats to give them a majority on the county board.
State Senate Races: Michael Bond has a gigantic target on his back, but is well-funded and should have lots of resources to fend off the inevitable assault. Who will the GOP candidate be? Look for interest from former Lake County Board member Randy Whitmore, Lake Villa Township supervisor (and GOP county chairman) Daniel Venturi, and maybe even County Board Chairman Suzi Schmidt, to consider a run. Senator Terry Link is not up this cycle, but look for hard-working GOP candidate Keith Gray to lay the groundwork for another run. There is always the possibility that Link might retire (perhaps take a job or post offered by Obama?) and appoint someone like State Rep. Kathy Ryg, to the post, which (I believe) would trigger an early election for the seat in 2010, but that's not likely until Link achieves his longtime goal of placing that casino in Waukegan. Recent victor Dan Duffy has no race this cycle, of course, but look for Dan to take a party leadership role both in Springfield and back home in Lake County.
State Representatives: Look for most GOP incumbents to do fine, but not without a lot of hard work and attention to their campaigns. Sid Mathias, Mark Beaubien, Ed Sullivan, and Jo Ann Osmond should all do fine, although some had closer races than others. My friend Sandy Cole will be targeted once again by her former would-be opponent Terry Hall, who was bounced from the ballot last time around due to deficient nomination papers, so that will be a race to watch. Watch for rookie Dan Sugrue to make another run against Dem Kathy Ryg. Sugrue will be better funded, have more name recognition, and lots more support from the Lake County GOP, which was spread rather thin in their battle against the Obama onslaught last cycle (but still largely successful), but will pay a lot more attention to this race this time around. Kathy, you've been warned.
County Offices: The incomparable County Clerk Willard Helander will have a giant target on her back, despite her universal accolades for the excellent job she does in running her office. The GOP will not let her be beaten. County Treasurer Bob Skidmore is also up for election, but should be fine. The interesting race to watch will be the sheriff, with Dem incumbent Mark Curran having massively annoyed the Dem machine by endorsing Lake County State's Attorney Michael Waller (who won a close election). Will Curran face a primary opponent? Terry Link isn't afraid of promoting primary battles amongst Dems, as evidenced by the Eddie Washington/Angelo Kyle primary last time around.
GOP Party Leadership: I don't think there will be much changeover in local leadership, so look (and hope for) for continued and improved cooperation among the various Lake County GOP groups, including the Lake County Republican Central Committee, the Lake County Republican Federation, and the Republican Assembly of Lake County, and the various candidates and office-holders, as well as better coordination with the State Party, as many of the boots-on-the-ground party members seem to have finally figured out we must all hang together, or the Obama democrats will hang us all separately.
So, there's a couple thoughts to think about over your yummy turkey leftovers. Please add your own thoughts and comments, and let's look forward to some real fun in the coming months.
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15 comments:
TA we had a great feast, but found the potential of having jesse jackson jr as our senator and the coming democratic rule highly un appetizing.
1. Jay is not coming back. When you fara and take a job working for a foreign government its because you never intend on working in government again. It fucks up your clearance and playing for another team doesn't fly with voters. That and the fact that the 10th dems are dominated by liberal nuts that hate jay's pro iraq war positions. The clintons also wont be able to help him raise dough.
2. Your analysis is nice but deeply flawed. This is not a democratic or liberal area, despite what Mark says and how he campaigns pretending not to be a republican. Our biggest problem is people like that who look for themselves rather than policy solutions to move the state forward.
3. The key to all the races you talked about is state party leadership and marks guys with hastert and mckenna on the left and the nuts at illinois review aren't the answer. Neither side has done anything either than lose elections.
4. So glad not to have to read the line Rep. Dan Seals (IL-D).
TA-
Hope you had a good thanksgiving, or in my case, 3 thanksgivings. On the federal level, at least, none of this means anything until a Senator is appointed and Springfield turns loose on the redistricting. If they can schwing in, I can see a situation where the Dems pick up two net seats by gerrymandering, combining Roskam and Biggert and putting some Dem turf in Kirk's, or just cutting off Palatine. Something like that might back Kirk into the corner of running statewide, just to avoid getting beat on his home turf by Footlik, or Dan Kotowski, or one of the 35 other potential Dem candidates in the area. I have no guesses as to who would run, but Kirk leaving or the dropping of Palatine Township from the district would leave Kirk looking vulnerable for the 3rd cycle in a row, not good for the Congressman's hairline.
On the local scene, nothing jumps out at me as a barnburner, although the BG village prez run could get fun, if Hartstein gets a real challenge. Considering his humiliating loss for senate prez, Terry Link might not be long for this world, politically speaking. I doubt he'll go to DC, but I wouldn't be suprised if there is a retirement party planned for Mr Link.
Now, Anon 4:15:
1. Jay Footlik is still I'm the running fir 2010. He has good name recognition, and a whole lot of money. Bill Clinton would come to the district for him, as well and many other Dem allies. The local Dems problem isn't his policies, which were pretty in line with Seals, but the fact that he ran and forced Seals to spend 400,000 in Jan and drove a new wedge between Seals and Jewish voters.
2. You're just flat-out wrong here. One of the reasons Mark won was the fact that he had his own brand, seperate from Bush or McCain. This is, like it or not, a Democratic area. A Dem has won the 10th for President each of the past 4 cycles now, in ever-increasing margins. Same for the past tei Senate races. There aren't any elected Dems in Suburban Cook county, and Seals won Lake county this cycle, by the slimmest of margins. Mark did run mostly on policy, with only one press release throughout the whole campaign attacking Seals' character. As far as moving the state forward, one of Mark's campaign centerpieces was his battle with Blago on transit funding, and the need for new leadership in Springfield.
3. Looking to the state party leadership as a "key" has obviously failed. In a part of the country as well educated as the North suburbs, a barrage of money from Springfield isn't the answer. The GOP needs to build local roots, along the lines of Mark's 4000 volunteers this cycle. There needs to be a huge shake-up at ILGOP to be sure, but it's not going to come by 2010, so sink or swim, mateys.
4. I got nuthin on that one. But don't pop corks too soon: crazy guv means Senator Seals isn't out of the question just yet. That game ain't over til it's over.
Again hope everyone had a happy thanksgiving and a Safe Black Friday.
Watch for lots of action in '10 out of Bonds district. He is up for election and he will put good candidates up in all seats from county board to state rep. Also look for lots of play by the dems in three county board districts; Calabresa, Newton & Talbett. Probably not have real problems as all three are in the same district with strong state senator/rep. incumbants.
Anon, thanks for raising these points because they need to be dismissed.
1. This area is trending democratic because we are without serious determined national or local leadership and political acumen to reveres the trends. The only voice thats not being heard at the national level right now is the moderate republican voice laregely because people like mark don't step up to run for leadership or attack issues above stem cell issues. The country needs a moderate gop voice right now, not someone chasing human rights cases in thailand.
2. In d.c. not a lot of people work for foreign governments because lobbying for them is a way to fuck up a clearance and looks hideous going forward. Jay has done that, and he's out.
3. We should have had a housecleaning of mckenna, tom cross and every other state leader on november 6, 2008. Those guys have failed terribly and why we wait 2 years to see them chucked is beyond belief. There is not full throttle challenge to blago, no serious gains in the house and senate, nada. It's also worth noting that thugs like mckenna and ray lahood ran out peter fitzgerald out of town. That of course opened the door for some guy named obama.
Mark's campaign is also not a model. You should google the florida gop, in that state they waged competitive fights for multiple congressional seats with as much dough as mark, AND competed for a swing state. They have a u.s. senator they don't cut at the knees and when they lose seats to democrats they dont turn to self funders and failed operatives.
4. Lose the gloom, we can and will return the party of lincoln to control of the land of lincoln but this group think that the status quo is working needs to get shredded.
One of the biggest problems I see is the continual snubbing of the blue-collar conservatives by the white-collar GOP snots who love to look down their noses at the working class (especially those of us who went to "inferior" schools... or no college at all).
News flash - WE VOTE TOO... and many of us lean to the right (no matter what the MSM says)
I think if you look carefully at the all the data from the election you will see that TA is right. This district, once reliably Republican leaning, is not anymore. Even Wheeling Township is showing a shift. I don't think it's a white collar vs blue collar issue at all. I think that the voters in the 10th are moving in a way I've not seen in nearly 40 years out here. What we saw in North Chicago and Waukegan was truly a color issue. Mark Kirk posted some of the worst numbers ever. The best results for Mark came from Inverness. Great numbers were posted in Palatine, parts of Arlington Heights, Libertyville and yes, even in parts of New Trier Township where numbers had slipped in 06. Although Mark lost Lake County by a tiny number, he made some impressive gains in Highland Park and Glencoe. His message that in this district we vote person and not party was late in coming, but it certainly did resonate when it counted. Are those gains enough? Of course not. Is there work to do? The answer is obvious.
Not sure that Jay Footlik is out of the picture in 2010. We should know pretty soon what he's thinking.
Mark Kirk has moved up in his positions within the full Appropriations committee and is the number two person on Foreign Operations. He will continue to lead the moderate wing of the party. I am convinced that he now has a far better understanding of how to message in this district. He knows that you can't take anything for granted, that you can't believe everyone knows where he stands on important issues. They don't. That was obvious in this election cycle.
Let's lose the back-biting, the intense attacks at McKenna & Co. and try to work together, pull together and share some positives with those who are currently leading. You can't defeat something with nothing. We survived a battle that most thought was impossible. Let's just build on that and make 2010 a whole lot easier than what we've just experienced.
Why can't the right wing and moderates band together and GET ALONG. I'm so sick of this infighting, sniping, and on and on. We ALL need to work together to show that Republicans, despite differences in one or another issue, CAN and WILL work together for the whole. If we analyzed the differences we would find there are very few and those really aren't the kind that should separate us. I think we all know what those very few issues are.
Am I that much of an environmentalist, heck no. Do I believe we should drill in ANWAR, heck yes. But that doesn't keep me from supporting Congressman Kirk. Am I pro-life, heck yes, but again that doesn't keep me from supporting Congressman Kirk.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, let's TRY to work together so we can regain some of the formerly red seats we've lost over the last several years in the NW part of Cook Co.
PLEASE!
The problem with working together is the conservatives don't want to compromise. They want everything their way and want the moderates to follow, much like the Lap Dogs- I mean Blue Dogs are to the Democrats. Now is our chance as moderate Republicans to have a voice in the party.
Am I pro-environment- hell yeah, am I pro-choice, hell yeah and I vote Republican.
Until our party leaders start respecting the views of the moderates, we will continue to be a minority party. Of course I am speaking to the national level....
Finally some voices of reason and willingness to compromise. If we are to rebuild and regain some stature in our State and elsewhere in the country we're going to have to learn the fine art of listening to the voices of everyone, coming to the center and understanding that it simply can't be "my way or the highway" or we will continue a downward spiral in 2010. OK, so let's not just talk about it, let's DO something about it. Perhaps we can convene some focus groups to talk out our issues and form some working groups with those of us willing to take that first step in a new direction. I can't think of a better time to begin all of this than NOW.
TA;
Missing the big picture -- the Link staff flipping on him (Link will be indicted by 2010) and the new Lake County criminal investigation of Creamer's Citizen Action. Could spell bad news for Ryg that is now as dirty as Link.
Do you recall how many years after Creamer's assault on the elderly in the State was uncovered that he finally was hauled off to jail? About 9 or 10. Don't look for anything immediate where that slime ball is concerned. And I'm sure his equally scummy wife, Jan Schakowsky, will do her best to keep him home with her. Nothing moves quickly, so I'm not going to hold my breath for anything happenning to either of them by 2010. As for Link, same thing. Anon 9:27, I think you're being very optimistic and not very realistic. I say let's focus on getting our party back in shape with some new leaders who can activate and motivate a new generation of Republican voters out here. And no, we don't all have to walk in lock-step or sing from the same hymnal, but we can find common ground from which to rebuild and reorganize our supporters. 2010 will come upon us very rapidly. Less talk, more action.
Anon 5/55. I'm in -- so let's get a group together through TA and see what we can come up with.
Anons 5:55 and 4:54 - Sounds good to me. I'm in too.
Again, this area has become more democratic because while our leaders like Dennis Hastert focused on protecting perverts, and Mark focused on thailand jails, theirs focused on taking over the suburbs and having ideas and some good people. Mark and McKenna are part of the rot in this party and when you look at how bad the democrats are it's depressing these guys can't do better.
Anon 7:15 YOU are part of the problem and not the solution. Try and get over it, either get on board or get the hell out of the way so we can form a real working group of interested 10th District folks determined NOT to lay blame and hack at each other, but to really come together and build something for the future. I am angry that you poke and jab at Mark Kirk for his interest in human rights. How come you've forgotten all that he does right here for this district? Too bad your blog won't let you comment. Go and appeal to Ms. Shrill and have her revive her ever-present attacks on Mark, down to her all of her current rants and raves. I think you belong over there and not here where we're looking for thoughtful and positive ways to move forward.
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