Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Mark Kirk Subject of Zogby Poll in Senate Matchup vs. Jesse Jackson, Jr.

A new poll performed by Zogby shows Jesse Jackson, Jr., as the popular favorite among 802 likely voters to replace Barack Obama in the Senate.

Of course, I'm betting that the pollsters didn't call the only "voter" whose opinion really matters on the appointment, Governor Rod Blagojevich. Even President-Elect Obama's opinion, were he to express one to the Governor, is going to run a distance second in consideration compared to what Blago thinks is good for Blago.

The poll was commissioned by the Jackson campaign (big shock). Likely this is Congressman Jackson's way of drumming up some buzz to give him a groundswell of support that Blago would have to acknowledge. That's assuming, of course, that Blago would be worried about the appointee keeping the seat in 2010. Again, Blago will do what's best for him, whatever that means.

Interestingly, Jackson also asked Zogby to do a head-to-head against 10th District Congressman Mark Kirk for a Senate battle in 2010 (as well as Ray LaHood (???)- Peoria Pundit has more on that here). According to Newsmax.com, the poll results indicated that "In a prospective match-up against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, Jackson wins 48% support, compared to 32% for Kirk."

Couple interesting things here. First, that Kirk was picked as one of the presumed GOP opponents. So, was Kirk picked by Jackson (or was it Zogby's decision?) because Jackson really thinks Kirk might run, or was it because he was looking for some good numbers and would expect to beat Kirk, at least now before the campaign really begins and Kirk would begin promoting himself on a state-wide basis? (Interestingly, Kirk polled slightly better than LaHood against Jackson)

Also, those polled were read a short biographical statement about Congressman Jackson, which then boosted the favorable results as to Jackson. No indication if poll participants were given any information, favorable or unfavorable, about Kirk. You might expect that once the state hears about our Congressman's accomplisments, his numbers might go up a tad as well.

Comments?

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

1. Obama just raised $600 million for his presidential campaign and has 10 million donors around the country on his email list. They will follow him on whatever dough he wants to raise here.

2. Kirk raised $6 million from 2,000 donors in his best showing.

3. Campaigns are exhausting and Mark's been in a 4 year sprint, that will be nothing compared to this.

4. Obama is likely to be very popular for some time seeing as though people will give him a long honeymoon to get out from this mess.

5. The state party is in garbage shape right with garbage leadership and hasn't been able to capitalize in anyway whatsoever on the democratic failings of the last 6 years. McKenna and hastert can't win republican areas and so it's a stretch to be taken seriously in democratic ones.

6. Not everyone is as dumb and incompetant as pup. There are Democrats that know how to win elections, and there are an awful lot of democratic operatives out there who have figured out how to beat the gop to smitherenes in the last few years.

7. Mark doesn't represent the base of the party and has never been much of a party person. You need to be about more than yourself to win statewide.

Lone Wolf a.k.a. RPT said...

I was actually polled on this and posted on it the day after it happened, which happened to be the day after the election. It was very easy to hear who the poll was commissioned by.

I kinda hope that Blohardovich puts the pup Seals in there because we know that it would help Kirk in 2010 should he decide to run for that office. Especially since we could hope to see a repeat of the 1996 takeback of congress by the GOP.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen Ellen's now about me section. I sometimes wonder if she know's how insanly comical she is. Does she have anything more to do with her life? I guess I'm just as bad for reading it but it's hysterical. Here it is:

About Me
Ellen Beth Gill
I believe that:
*Corporations are not people, but the people who run them are accountable to the commmunity for their actions.
*Wealth does not trickle down, but is created by empowering people of all classes.
*Arming everyone to the teeth will not bring peace.
*The worst thing a congressman can do is lie to talk his constituents into war. The second worst thing a congressman can do is use race and religion to divide people and the third worst thing is misrepreset the law to make a political point. My congressman has done all of these things.
*People are stewards of the planet.
*The mainstream media has abandoned its role as the fourth estate, should be replaced and lose the benefits given to it for being such.
*Access to affordable health care is a human right.
*We should never make it cost effective for a health care provider or any other type of service provider or manufacturer to provide defective services or products. That is what tort reform does.

Team America said...

About me:

TEAM AMERICA

I believe:

* Government aid should be the last resort, not the first resort.

* Barack Obama should not be worried about "forcing me to work." I already work.

* The best defense is a good offense. (corollary- Bring the battle to them before they bring it to you)

* Local control is the best control- schools, taxes, laws (corollary- I don't trust Springfield with anything)

* On the world scene, it's better to be feared than loved. (corollary- foreign relations is not a popularity contest)

* We should not provide our tax dollars to assist countries that hate us

* raising taxes slows the economy (corollary- the government doesn't build job, the private sector does)

* Mark Kirk kicks ass.

Anonymous said...

TA, you kick ass too.

Baxter's Mom

Anonymous said...

Ellen is worthless and so beaten down that she refuses to aknowledge Dan's defeat or King Louis commentary. The right wing has won the battle of the northshore blog wars and it's now time to focus on getting rid of the Jan Schakowsky stasi up here.

I understand that Springfield is a low class backwater and that for many of us that live on the North Shore, going south of Comiskey Park is something done only on buisness or to visit schools. However what goes on down there has a major impact and if these fools decide to gut ourschools to pay for their screwups in the city, we could be up a creek.

I renew my call to focus on getting rid of the democratic thugs up here. If they can't run campaigns for congress they may be beatable at the state level.

Anonymous said...

I promised myself I'd stay away from that sicko's Blog. Curiousity overtook good old common sense. TA, are you in fuzzy slippers? This woman is dangerously over the top and does need some serious help. She's only talking to herself, it appears she doesn't even want her trusted mom and that Hawkeye dude talking back to her. Perhaps they're just as nuts as she is and can't bear to understand that the voters in the 10th aren't buying what she and her buddies are selling. She can't deal with it. Let's make a pact: let's just ignore her, let's just hope and pray that she folds her 'tent' and disappears into the world of her beloved cat and remains there. Wait. She hasn't mentioned that damn cat. Do you suppose the worst has happened? Too mucn to contemplate. But seriously, let's just forget about her and appreciate the fact that our Congressman, Mark Kirk, will represent this District for the next two years and beyond should he choose to do so.

Working-class conservative said...

Hey anon 5:50 - no need to get snooty about the North Shore. There are plenty of conservative folks here in Lake and northern Cook who are not "upper class" and don't look down our noses at the rest of the decent folks in our state (whether they live north or south of Comiskey). Hell, some of us even went to (GASP) non-prestigious state schools or (you better sit down for this one) community college!

We need to unite, not divide.

Anonymous said...

Just as an outsider, WorkingClassConservative just demonstrated why the GOP has not won an election in 4 years. Too many Republicans have an "us vs. them" mentality and, frankly, its a mentality that breeds immature thinking, partisan political divide, and international disdain. Bush lost the support of the world community for his "us vs. them" mentality. McCain lost the support of the electorate by trying to force "us vs. them" in his "country first" montra (because clearly the Democratic party and Barack Obama must put country 2nd).

TA and others have spent weeks trying to figure out how to make the GOP relevant again, a good place to start would be an overthrow of the current party mentality. Saying "it's better to be feared then loved" only pushes that ideal further and creates a security spiral with our enemies. The reason Kirk has been successful is because he has rejected "us vs. them" and its for that reason, more then any other, that so many people I know voted Kirk/Obama/Durbin. Take a lesson from our congressmen and leave this dark ages mentality behind.

8thDistrictCommitteeman said...

"*Access to affordable health care is a human right. "

Since when? Try telling that to the thousands of immigrants and pioneers who died trying to make this country what it is.

Anonymous said...

Hey Anon 11:56 AM - Let me get this straight - So your master plan is to lay down for the Powerful and ALmighty Democrats? John Kerry had the best email list of his time too and he helped Democrats like Tammy Duckworth in 2006 - it raised money but it didn't wash Roskam out.

Statewide or national races obviously give candidates better opportunities to build email/fundraising lists and Kirk has a NATIONAL network of people to help him - so your comparison of apples to oranges isn't very helpful.

You also neglect the best thing ANY R candidate would have in this race - the thing that helped drive a wedge against the obama tide in Illinois - the Blago factor. Whoever the senate choice will be is the HAND PICKED candidate of ROD R. BLAGOJEVICH. Remember George Ryan? That's nothing compared to the negative reaction voters will have to any candidate associated with Blagojevich, must less a candidate HAND PICKED AND ENDORSED BY BLAGOJEVICH. I can't wait for the pictures from the swearing in...

How long was Bill Clinton's honeymoon after inheriting a huge mess? I guess time will tell, but history is not on Obama's side and his mess is much bigger. Let me guess, you are going to say that Bush will get the blame, but back in 1982, Republicans tried to run against Jimmy Carter and it backfired badly. All I'm saying is that the environment can change and there is no guarantee it will be good for Democrats.

The DCCC spent over 2 million bucks against Kirk and outside groups spent millions more. They are pretty smart guys right? Who beat lots of OTHER Rs to smitherenes, no? In Obama's home state no less... give the Kirk folks some credit. I would argue the opposite, we need more of Kirk's people running campaigns because they know how to beat all these smart Democrat operatives.

Your 3rd point - campaigns are exhausting and it's been 4 years and this whole thing will be nothing compared to that and waaaaaaaaaaaaaah. Man - you must not know this guy very well. Everything I read and observe tells me he eats, sleeps and breaths this stuff. If he's going to get tough races in a D district each and every cycle, why shouldn't he consider a statewide bid? I don't know many people who work harder.

As far as the state party is "garbage" comment and the you need to be about more than yourself comment. Wake up Anon. Peter Fitzgerald, Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar and all the other statewide elected leaders in Illinois put their personal stamp on the Party - not the other way around. Their personality and politics shaped the state just like Obama's will shape the nation. Our Party can get energized in the same why Obama energized his Party with fresh, bold leadership - the type of leadership Mark Kirk has provided his constituents. He brought conservatives and independents and Democrats and ticket splitters to his campaign because they trusted the man and believed he would do good things for them and their families.

You are right about one thing Anon - 2010 will be a test for Republicans and the fight will be rigorous and we will all need a little luck to win. But I'll say one thing, when campaigns start digging foxholes and waging these campaigns, I hope you get up outta your armchair and into the game.

Anonymous said...

Anon, I love the koolaid you are drinking it just doesn't happen to reflect any kind of reality. I say these things as a longtime mark supporter and preccint worker but longer time goper.

1. State Party. The equivavelnt of the congressional seats that Andy McKenna, Mark's boy, and his merry band of loser operatives have blown in the last 3 cycles would be if we won Nancy Pelosi's seat in the peoples republica of san fran, rahm emanuel's seat, and charlie rangel's seat.

He's a garbage leader, has no ideas on policy, and hasn't been able to make a dent despite all the democratic screwups you mentioned. Also Mark's people lost Republican seats in Nevada and Hastert's district in addition to Judy Baar Topinka's race 2 years ago. Chew on that.

McKenna also gets permanent merit badge of dishonor by running peter fitzgerald out of town.

2. If there's one thing we've learned over the last 8 years it's to not blindly follow our leaders. There are people that are proud of being a republican and then there are those that run ads like peter roskam touting the democratic presidential nominee and and mark kirk who won't aknowledge their party in their ads.

Would you rather see a candidate win by running as a proud republican or this independent b.s.?

3. Obama's team has made their careers and gotten to the highest levels by destroying the gop here. As well Dan's campaign was run by a guy who has zero record of winning anything at any level.

4. This isn't a D district, despite what you think. It once was and can be again a strong Republican district of national stature but you have to get leadership that's going to make a serious commitment to tackling challenges here rather than saving a human rights victim 6,000 miles away.

Anonymous said...

I agree, Anon. 11:13, 2010 will be a test for Republicans. It will a better year, for the GOP, than 1994, since Obama is more liberal than Clinton. I hope that republican candidates for the U.S. Senate and House will agree to a set of promises that will be similar to the Contact with America. They would promise that, if they regain control of both houses, they would pass about five bills, including tax cuts, welfare cuts, and better enforcement of immigration laws.

Phil Collins

Anonymous said...

The contract with America happened because newt gingrich had been having wet dreams about how to take back the House for 20 years and had been looking for ideas since the early 1980's. He also had a number of things like the consolidation of gop gains in the south giving him lots of low hanging fruit to pick.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:56 - Who is the kool aid drinker? That district has changed since you last left your protective GOP bubble. I don't just "think" that... Just grab a computer and take a look by the numbers. LOTS of districts were once stronger GOP districts... and my grandfather walked to school up hill both ways in the snow when he was a kid. For someone who has seemingly been around the block up there you need to wake up.

Many of the Obama operatives you worship lost big races before they ever had a chance to work for BO. Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry, Duckworth, etc. But what I'm interested in is your obsession with campaign people... you put a great deal of emphasis on this in your comments. Mark supporter and precinct worker, eh? You're pretty critical for someone who is supposedly on the team... A team is important, no doubt, but a team is only as good as the candidate they represent.

As far as the Party/McKenna bashing is concerned, I think you are falling into the trap... blaming the Party for all of your problems without looking at yourself in the mirror. Oberweis and Lauzen and the slew of bad GOP candidates are responsible for these losses. No Obama campaign operative could make Jim Oberweis likable or raise Steve Greenberg's money for him or keep Chris Lauzen from being a sore loser.

So what's the answer Anon? Where do we get these top notch campaign operatives that you speak of? Should we replace the Party Chairman and with who? What are the issues that everyone is missing? If Kirk and Roskam have sold out, who should we model our Party here in Illinois after?

We're listening.