Scott Rasmussen has released a new poll showing a dead heat, 41%-41% between presumptive GOP nominee Congressman Mark Kirk and the Dem assumed top dog, State Tresurer Alexi Giannoulis.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Republican hopeful Mark Kirk tied with Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 41% to 41%. Only four percent (4%) would choose another candidate, while 13% remain undecided.
That 13% undecided is a bit lower that I might have thought, considering how far out we are from the general election. Real Clear Politics has a short blurb up, but I am sure this poll will get a lot of attention quickly, given how much is riding on this race and its relationship to the White House.
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42 comments:
This should be the safest seat in the country for the democrats, they know they have 3 lackluster tier 3 candidates running against mark which is why the fundraising is so awful and they keep putting stories out about how they want a better candidate hoping someone gets in.
Cheryle Jackson makes a moron like pup look like Henry Kissinger she's that dumb from watching her on t.v. Hoffman is a grown up tikkun-mouthy and full of himself but completely out of his league.
Mark's win is going to go down with Daschles defeat in 04 as hardest kick in the dems senate groin of the decade. Starting January 2011 when he is sworn in, we'll see him reading eric elk talking points on sunday morning talk shows on foreign policy issues until we are old.
Glory Days are ahead Team America.
FOKLAES
Pleasant thoughts, FOKLAES, although we'll have to get Elkman a good makeup artist and make him keep the whiskers shaven.
Elk would write the talking points not give the message, although with no statewide candidates on our side likely to win- Brady is the only one that gets my political elephant trunk erect, and he won't win-he'll be top GOP dog if Mark gives him state director and he'll need to be primed.
I'm looking forward to the line "Alexi just because you got hammered in tel aviv after a basketball game doesn't mean you understand the middle east."
Alexi "But I drank maniewietz wine so I totally know that we are fighting Haifa jihadis and Hezbollah is a town in Israel".
FOKLAES
Hey,hey,hey - I like the whiskers!
Mrs. Elkman
Well, we all knew there had to be SOME real reason for the "Rasputin" look, didn't we?
This poll is for an election 13 months away! Lets dig in for the long haul folks. One thing accurate about the poll is that a Mark Kirk win will be a close one.
I wonder if Mark could still win the Senate seat if the GOP didn't field a good candidate to win the 10th and vice versa?
the 10th is ground zero for the race. Everything else is more conservative or liberal in the city. If Mark eats Alexi's gyros here it's game over.
We're going to be vomiting the story about alexi's hoops game revelation by this time next year the way we vomited gash's soccer mommy crap and pup's obama comparisons.
FOKLAES
Coulson showed up on chicago tonight this evening in her machine democrat suit with no new ideas and lots of blah. Time for cadigan, dold and green to show they have a couple and are serious about campaigning by taking the video, doing a little rapid response, taking her votes from springfield and tatooing her in a snazzy youtube hit.
Enough with what you did 15 years ago, show us you can hit 21st century pitching.
We're waiting.
FOKLAES
The more Beth Coulson is seen, the less she is liked.
Likeable candidates win.
Just heard a Mark Kirk radio spot on WGN. The Kirk team isn't wasting a second to get his message out and get the campaign rolling along the way it should be. I'm not impressed with polls showing dead heats or anything else at this point in time. Mark needs to define himself, get his name and distinguished accomplishments out there for all to hear. With the bloom fading fast from the Obama rose, if ever there was a time for us to capture this Senate seat it's now. I've never been more optimistic about Mark's chances. As for Beth Coulson's chances, don't count her out just yet. She has name ID that others lack, will get some pretty good endorsements as she picks up the pace. No, I'm not endorsing her, but I'm just pointing out that just like Mark's race is far from over, so is Coulson's chances of holding onto this seat.
72 days to the election. Time to start showing what you got.
If you aren't going to bludgeon coulson now go back to your boy scout troop and stop wasting our time.
FOKLAES
FOKLAES-
I don't know if I'd say I was mouthy or in over my head. Actually, I'm one of the more civil and restrained commenters here, and I've held my own pretty well, I think.
As an example, let's take a look at your math. It's 105 days to the election, not 72. There's still time for candidates to positively define themselves, which Cadigan seems to be doing. In a multi-way race, you have to set yourself up as the right alternative before throwing haymakers at the frontrunner. "Anybody but Coulson" messages would rely on a lot of luck (including ballot position) come election day.
Tikun,
Outside of crazy, this is actually pretty restrained. It's a lot better than catwoman or the verbal weapons of mass destruction that comrade jan's been spewing.
From what I saw on the berkowitz show cadigan has no message other than middle aged white guy that worked for porter-dold would be middle aged white guy that worked for quayle. Not exactly Western Union there telegraphing an idea to the voters.
Coulson and her buddy tom cross and hastert's boy and every other scum in this state that hasn't stood up and fought the democrats deserve a 1 way ticket out of party politics. Tonight Coulson put her head in the guillotine, hopefully one of these dudes will get his robespierre on and let the razor fall on her hideous record.
FOKLAES
On Berkowitz, Cadigan showed he was inforemd on issues and could think on his feet for 30 minutes unafraid of the format. Before that, Cadigan had people like Patrick Collins,Steve Rauschenberger and Mike Schroeder testify to his character.
The 10th District doesn't go for that guillotine/robispierre you are suggesting. Kirk would tell you that.
New poll shouldn't be anything new for us Kirk veterans.
Mark Kirk in another "close" election. Wins another "close" election.
We should be used to this by now!
Louis G. Atsaves
Cadigan doesn't have enough money to defeat the Democrats in a State Rep race let alone a top tier Congressional. Sorry man, you seem like a smart cool dude, but the dream is over.
cadigan answered questions for 30 minutes. Your average metra rider who reads realclearpolitics and ta's blog on the way in and weekly standard on the way home could do that. There was no message there as to why he wants to be congressman other than the fact that he's waited 18 years. Also he was sitting not standing and if he couldn't predict that it was going to be iran/afghanistan, corruption, economy, bailout, taxes, healthcare he doesn't belong in the race. It's not like he'll be asked his view on genital mutilation in MENA.
Mark knew how to go for the kill, to pounce on his target and devour his flesh. Ask the 4 losers he's beaten and the 5th in 13 months. If cadigan doesnt want to go after coulson for an awful record in springfield and demonstrate differences he should drop out.
If cadigan intends to let hamos drag her sorry old gizzard record around the north shore without going after it, the way he is giving coulson a pass, then forget him. We need a candidate who actually wants to fight and get in the scrum and see some democrat blood.
FOKLAES
Cadigan needs to just give it up and realize that this is just not his time. His fundraising is in the tank and he will not get any support from Kirk Inc bec of their hostile relationship. For the good the district and so we don't end up with a Julie Hamos vs Elizabeth "Hamos" Coulson, he needs to hang it up.
Buh-Bye Cadigan
TA--
Your shortsightedness is disappointing. Which ever candidate wins the Democratic nomination will have the full force of the DSCC and the White House behind them. Obama is still incredibly popular in this state and will continue to be for a very long time. If Alexei or Cheryle needs him to win, then he will come and do events in the city and collar areas for them. I'm sure Kirk can fundraise when he's lacking a true opponent, but he is no match politically or financially for OFA, the DSCC and the power of this being the President's seat.
As for the 10th, I compare this election to the NL and AL in baseball. Although the NL has a playoff, its still clearly the weaker league then the AL (see recent All Star Game results if you don't believe me). The GOP in the 10th without Kirk is similar to the NL, there is no chance that Seals or Hamos loses this cycle. Wait for Kirk to re-run in 2012 after he loses next year...
Until Next Time,
A Concerned Colonial
Norm Coleman raised 27 million in minnesota. Mark will have the money to fight and the nrsc will be here, the nrcc is another matter and we are going to be massively massively underfunded for trying to keep this seat which is another reason cadigan needs to show better. CC you also forget that the only story next year will be blago and that will go a long way towards counteracting obama.
The cadigan-kirk pissing match is less concerning than a candidate who can't put down his walker brothers chocolate crepes to lace em up and put on his boxing gloves.
If Mark loses I doubt he'll be back. He'll have to run his ellen off for 2 years, then have to start all over building seniority in the house in the minority. Not sure if it's something he'll want to do at 53. At best it'll be 12 years before he gets to run a subcommittee and that will be only if a miracle happens and we get congress. This is it.
FOKLAES
CC - I would not be so sure that Obama comes back in force to fundraise in Illinois, at least not directly for the likes of Alexi. As FOKLAES points out, next year will be the trial of the "Apprentice" (won't that be a hoot watching!) and by the time Hoffman is done bloodying Alexi in February, there's not going to be much there that Obama's going to want to be associated with.
Obama was plenty popular in Illinois and what did he do for Dan Seals, besides get accidently caught in one picture with Seals that Danno has used so many times it's frayed at the edges? Obama cut one measly radio piece for Seals so late in the game that it made no difference to Seals and more importantly, would made no difference to Obama in case Seals made yet another stupid gaff like gasoline-for-votes or Professorgate.
Obama will come nowhere near anyone who may sully his now-tattered brand - politically, it's all about what will help Obama, not the little folk.
Behind the scenes help is all that Alexi is going to be able to count on. No Grant Park Obama fundraiser for bankerboywonder, you can count on it.
CC:
By next year, Obama and his administration will not be posing a threat to Kirk - the only weapon Obama has left is ACORN and SEIU (just ask Ballerina Boy) and I think the majority of Illinoians would love the opportunity to vote against both the nut and the squirrel.
Only question is - are Republicans prepared to take on ACORN and SEIU (do they know how?)
Kirk needs Cadigan more in the western part of the district for the general election rather than the other way around.
Those people aren't letting that cap and trade vote go.
CC, you seem damn sure that Mr. Kirk will lose next year. You will be proven wrong again. No, Kirk lacks the force of those paragons of virtue: Axelrod and Emanuel. What Mark Kirk has is his integrity and the respect of people across the State who are now meeting him, hearing him, having a chance to see all that he's done with the 50 years he's been on this earth. There's no unions to get out and help dead folks vote. SEIU and Acorn will continue to show the ugly side of the worst kind of corruption that we've come to expect from them. Look what they did to help the guy in the White House. Mark Kirk will win next year because most people are sick and tired of the ugly side of what our State has shown to the nation. Mark Kirk is a quality guy with the kind of personal and professional ethics we will begin to demand of those who seek to represent us. You don't like Mark. That's your right. But CC, you are so wrong, so out of step with reality that I think you better try a new drink since the Kool Aid is tainted.
pup was different than alexi. Alexi is running for obama's seat. That's a huge deal. Pup was running for a seat that democrats hadn't won in 28 years.
The more I think about it, the more cadigan's fundraising is a major problem. this bs that he's only had 3 weeks of time to raise money is not true. Mark'sbeen out since july, and seeing as how mark had to outspend dan to slip by, I am less and less pleased with his figure and think it will be a major problem.
the nrcc isn't flush today the way it was 10 years ago whne the gopwas in power and this area was a lot more gop.
FOKLAES
I still say money doesn't trump qualifications and likability in the 10th. Cadigan wins on both of those scores.
His qualifications were 20 years ago, he doesn't want to hit coulson and thus far he's brought a squirt gun to a political fight that will be fought with tanks and rocket proppelled grenades.
Hamos outraised him 20-1. Perhaps he has a plan to use pigeons to get his message out.
FOKLAES
I think he plans on using Red Cross volunteers. Tee hee hee
He would have been able to raise more than a donation from his mother, and been able to actually run a campaign where he did something other than film shoddy cellphone camera endorsement videos with former state legislators.
FOKLAES
Fundraising is an objective measure of likability, your subjective perception notwithstanding.
1. Do I even want to know what a 'tikkun-mouthy is?' Insert insult or age-old untoward comment here? I'm sure it is not a badge of honor or a polite comment.
I think its ironic that someone who says 'she's that dumb from watching her on tv' actually doesn't sound too comprehensive, deep, or well thought-out themselves.
I would tend to agree that Ms. Jackson is not a good candidate though I would hope to be a bit more well-spoken and holistic in my comments.
2. If glory days are here again for the GOP, this leads me to believe the country can expect another pre-emptive strike (why can't a Republican get the peace prize?), unnecessary tax cuts, and flip-flopping on climate issues, the stimulus (as done here and in Texas), and not standing in the way of helping Americans, and more doldrums from the current GOP 'leadership.' At least we can look forward to more sex scandals by people who used to sit in judgement of the rest of us!
I'll start practicing my frown for the 'happy days.'
No one's proud of Mark's flip flopping on cap n'trade, vote against the surge, support for hate crimes legislation, wasted energy on random refugees or lack of political will. If he had put the same energy into the tuesday group reigning in bush's spending and social conservatism bull shit this district would be more red, the party more balanced and his collegues named shays,johnson,leach,morella,simmons,kelly,bass,bradley,reynolds,davis,fitzpatrick and hart would still have jobs on Capitol Hill. Legislative spine seems to be lacking.
jackie robinson jackson or whatever name she has this week to pander for votes is a joke and it's frankly arrogant and offensive that the democrats have put up candidates like her, the ol'gizzard hamos, pup, cappo Alexi, and hoffman that are complete incompetents.
FOKLAES
Foklaes, explain why you don't support Hate Crimes Legislation? Mark Kirk stands for the human rights our ancestors wanted for generations to come. What in the world is your beef with this? What don't you understand about human rights? I can't wait to read your explanation. Cap and Trade was clearly the will of many in the 10th District. NO, I don't share it, but I'm not in agreement with every vote, every position Mark has taken over the years. But my blood pressure just went off the charts when you talk about Hate Crimes. Explain it.
I don't buy the cap and trade b.s., Mark endorsed mccain in 08, bush in 04 (and raised 200k for him), bush in 00 primary and 00 general (remember bob jones and james byrd), none of those endorsements reflected the will of the district, he routinely voted for hastert for speaker which made tom delay majority leader-not the districts favorite kind of guy-and against nancy pelosi-more in line with a a district that voted 62-38 for dems in 08. Leaders have to have conviction, a set of principles and values they stick to, that's why we elect them. We elected Mark, not lee goodman.
As for Hate Crimes, one of the views of the GOP is that we don't do special interests, we do rule of law and independent small government. We have laws on the books to punish people already. Not every special interest has to get its way in d.c. Part of the problem the GOP has had in d.c. and both sides in springfield is the failure of leaders to say no to lobbyists and special interests. Someone has to standup and say enough. I have nothing against GLBT, but LBG is another matter.
I'm still waiting for dold to finish his cubscout meeting or cadigan to finish his love of pat collins to stand up for fiscal conservatism and rip coulson for her performance last night and in springfield on spending. Elk would have had her for dinner by now.
FOKLAES
I'm not buying what you're selling on Hate Crimes. Have it your way, but I'm proud of Mark Kirk's personal integrity and his willingness to do the right thing. On Cap and Trade, you will never believe it so it's pointless to talk about it. The 10th leans Democrat these days, he had a real count of the calls, the emails, the personal snail mail appeals for that vote. As a Senator he would have received a far different response. Don't you think it's about time to move forward, stop talking about the damn thing and work toward getting Mark Kirk elected on 11/2/10. It's old news, it's ancient history. How about highlighting the things that have given him high praise from voters who've had the good sense to re-elect him in each cycle. Come on, Foklaes, move forward, get a more positive attitude so we can win. It takes all of us to get this done.
cap and trade is an issue as every vote mark takes for his 6 years in the senate is going to be framed either as a vote against the conservative base or a vote against obama, and I'd like to know who and what we are going to get. Believe me this is small fry compared to supreme court justices-he told illinois review he was on board with alito and roberts, what do you think he's going to say a year from now when polls show him slipping and he's hit with a clarence thomas or sotomayer question?
I'm voting for him proudly as I always have, but in case you didn't read the paper this morning, 19 percent of Americans call themselves republicans and only steve bartman and jack ryan have had a worse decade than moderate republicans. The way out of the wilderness is to test our leaders and search for the ones that have spine, vision and leadership (and might not work for the red cross) to carry us for the next generation. Obama had the guts to take a stand on Iraq in 2003 when folks in his party were going the other way, mccain took on the party's base on BICRA, mark needs to stand taller like we know he can.
FOKLAES
The fundraising abilities of Obama should not be discounted. The New York Times reported that The One appeared in NYC this past weekend for a Democratic Fundraiser. Donations were for the maximum $30,400.00 and the event was extremely well attended by WALL STREET CORPORATES!
Man of the People! Man of the Little Guy! The Man who will Transform this Country and Give Everyone Hope! The Man of Change! The Community Organizer! Yeah, right! :-)
He left that stuff in the dust years ago. Like the Daley Machine in Chicago, he only pretends to be for the little guy!
We need to remember that this election cycle.
Obama will raise big money from the big money guys. The big money guys are backing the Democrats who are now doing their bidding. Those Wall Street Reforms? Still bogged down in committee by the Democrats!
Louis G. Atsaves
King Louis-
$ as usual.
Will you join me in calling for the republican candidates for mark's seat to start showing some more fire and teeth?
FOKLAES
Putting up certain candidates is 'arrogant?'
First, more candidates - in theory and in moderation - means better choices and more of them and is what OUR government is all about. There are other countries that have fewer candidates (and they include those that Reagan-Bush negotiated with) so maybe if one does not like the freedom of almost anyone (who can afford it that is - especially with the conservative court about to over-turn McCain Feingold), running for office, one can go to Iran or Nicauragua. (My comments are no more firm or severe than Mr. Foklaes and others.)
Hmm, Alan Keyes for Senate was not arrogant; it was an insult!
George Ryan for Governor? Why is he in prison now? Because of the crimes he committed as Secretary of State?! No one knew about them? Then how did the government build a case against him? Oops.
Sara Palin is one of the most in-your-face, unintelligent, and arrogant people I've seen in quite some time. What is best for you doesn't apply to her family. What she would view as immoral for most families is a 'blessing for her family?'
'One of the gospels of the GOP is that we don't do special interests.'
Lehman is no more but Goldman where Paulson came from has been saved via a 'socialist' bailout.
Most businesses that fail to meet their contractual obligations don't get further business. Haliburton on the other-hand is treated specially.
The Defense of marriage act was not necessarily an urgent priority for the majority of the populace and did not need to be decided when Congress had shorter work schedules under GOP leadership. Hence, yet another special interest served with pride.
Sometimes the hypocrisy, labeling, and lock-stepness of some on this blog would be funny if it didn't demonstrate a blindness to what has occurred and what is occurring.
Now, please tell me about how people of my ethnicity treat money (like your cohorts in S.C.), call me names, and tell me I don't have a right to speak.
I've come to expect it.
Crazy4golf, wtf are you rambling about? Don't pretend that for every Republican hypocrisy there isn't a Democrat hypocrisy. Parties are big unmanageable things-one can always find hypocrisy in them just about constantly. Hypocrisy doesn't distinguish the parties, sorry to burst your bubble. The difference between you and the people on this blog are that we believe in the goodness and responsibility of people, and you think that people must be forced by government to be good and responsible. We all want whats' good for our country.
-Oracle of Smurf
Team,
Fantastic news, Roll Call reports Tehran Julie Hamos and pup have staffed up. I'm exhausted so haven't had time to look to see what cretins they have brought up here. Pup's brought back Patrick Mogge, apparently getting his brains beaten in by Eric Elk twice wasn't enough. Tehran Julie seems to have stocked up on the machine staffers coulson didn't want or couldn't get. Perhaps they can swap stories on how to appropriately praise blago, tax hikes, their ACORN buddies and the unions.
Mogge is a running joke at DNC HQ for losing twice in Obama's state in the 2nd most liberal district in America held by a republican. The way choking in boston is called pulling a buckner, blowing a campaign is called a moggee. Interestingly enough no mention of the vaunted max temkin, perhaps he's a secret stealth weapon like dan's work history!
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/55_45/shoptalk/39774-1.html
FOKLAES
Lou,
Quite frankly, I'm more concerned with Obama's ability to hand out money to special interests groups to retain this seat as opposed to him raising money. He may be popular amongst his left of left friends, but even they are feeling the financial pinch as a result of his reckless economic policies....
Beware of the ACORNS, YWCA's, SEIU's, NGO's and 501c3's set up for the purpose of being "Democratic campaign camps" at the cost of the American taxpayer....
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