Monday, September 6, 2010

Will Even Alexi Giannoulias Throw Hapless President Obama Under the Bus This Fall?

This morning, the Chicago Tribune offered up a big article on President Obama's freefalling approval ratings here in Illinois, which is no big surprise to anyone who has been keeping an eye on national trends. Obama has still remained more popular and maintained a higher approval rating here in his adopted home state, but as the summer of 'non-recovery' has stretched on, with no real improvement in the economy (at least on a level people can see and feel, it seems), Obama's ratings here at home are no longer immune to the decline that we have noticed elsewhere.

Why? Time Magazine, of all publications, takes a long look at this phenomenon, and concludes very simply that Obama's philosophy of solving problems by throwing big government at them comes at a time when America's distrust of government has skyrocketed, and the enormous budget deficits that have been and continue to be incurred have the entire country in a state of great concern, if not near-panic:

"One explanation for Obama's steep decline is that his presidency rests on what Gallup's Frank Newport calls a "paradox" between Obama and the electorate. In 2008, Newport notes, trust in the federal government was at a historic low, dropping to around 25%, where it still remains. Yet Obama has offered government as the primary solution to most of the nation's woes, calling for big new investments in health care, education, infrastructure and energy. Some voters bucked at the incongruity, repeatedly telling pollsters that even programs that have clearly helped the economy, like the $787 billion stimulus, did no such thing. Meanwhile, the resulting spike in deficits, which has been greatly magnified by tax revenue lost to the economic downturn, has spooked a broad sweep of the country, which simply does not trust Washington to responsibly handle such a massive liability."

Article after article is now expounding on the worries of the Democrats that their deficit/Obamacare/porkulous chickens have come home to roost, and the November 2010 elections have a very bleak look. None of the Dems are campaigning on the virtues of ObamaCare or other big government initiatives, and in fact, most Dems are running from the President and his policies at light speed. Whether they can run fast enough to escape the collateral fallout from sticking with the President when all of this garbage was passed, well, I guess we'll see in November. Based on Obama's 'new' plan revealed today to spend our way out of this economic funk, it's clear that he hasn't learned any lessons, and is simply doubling down on a failed strategy.

It appears that Alexi Giannoulias is a bit of an anomaly compared to many Dems nationwide, as Alexi was only too happy to have Obama come in last month for a high-profile fundraiser that provided some sorely-needed funds. But even as recently as last week, we are now seeing even Alexi back away a bit from Obama, and I would expect this trend to continue, as the Obama/Pelosi/Reid economic and social message appears to be failing across the nation.

We'll see if Alexi "Now I'm Mr. Independent" Giannoulias even wants Obama to come back in the last 60 days of the campaign, or cut any campaign commercials on Alexi's behalf.

Wow, what a difference a summer makes.


Anonymous said...

You've got to love our thin-skinned president lately. He can't take the heat from the American people, not just from Republicans, so he lashes out, looks like a spoiled kid in his appearance and his rhetoric. I wouldn't bet on Alexi not accepting help from his buddy, however. In Illinois Obama still has a slightly higher approval rating so it would seem logical that Alexi will grab any straw.

Anonymous said...

Team, I am a huge fan but you are dead wrong.

Alexi was obama's campaign chairman. He owes his career to Obama, he wants obama's seat. He can't and won't distance himself from obama both because he doesn't disagree with obama and because its politically impossible. The moment he walks away from obama the national media will say obama's own inner circle is quitting on him. Other candidates can pull back from obama in other places the way mark did from bush because they aren't tied as closely but sometimes you are too much a part of the ship to jump from it and just have to try to save it and that's what alexi will do.

What will happen is alexi will double down on his attacks on congressman kirk. Attacks which thus far have proven mildly successful particularly the oppo drop on congressman kirk's military background. The obama administration will divert more and more administration officials and resources to try and save him as they pull back from areas where obama is less successful.


Anonymous said...

Why is Dold down 13 points just under 60 days out?

Let's see if he has an internal worth releasing this time.

10th District Values Voter

Anonymous said...

10th DVV,

People will now (post Labor Day) start paying attention. Once Bob blankets TV w/ commercials, his name ID will skyrocket. I think it will be close, but I have no doubt he will bust his behind everyday to keep the seat R. This race will swing hard one way or the other by mid-October -- someone will say/do/release something big.

I think TA should start a thread...who is more "likely" to win...Kirk or Dold? Choose one...let's discuss...

Anonymous said...


No article on the Dolt sinking ship? 13 points with less than 60 days to election day has to have Bingo Bob worried. I don't think they have enough Klopp-approved comments to turn this around...

Until Next Time,
A Concerned Colonial

Anonymous said...

Where is everyone getting this 13 points down info? Has to be a Seals poll - and the first of the more than 4 they've already run. Must have finally called the right people or asked the right questions.

The fact is, this race, at least from every legit poll I've seen, is a dead heat.

Dold will not release any internals because they are not running them.

Anonymous said...

OK - has anyone looked at the memo behind the poll? Holy cow!! Shows democrats have a more favorable rating than R's generically? If so, that's the only poll in the country that shows it.

The Seals campaign must be desparate to get help from the Nat'l party if they're releasing this type of thing.

For sure Seals has a better name ID, but the fact is, when you get on the ground, Seals is nowhere to be found.

It's gonna be a nail-biter.

Anonymous said...

Does Seals still live in the area??
He could be running his campaign from Kenosha or Keokuck for all we see of him.

Anonymous said...

Hey CC, once again you're way off base. The "poll" was a push poll so now you have the answer. Here's a good one for you: a couple of Bob DOLD'S staffers even got a call! Every national poll shows that your party is sinking like a row boat with a huge hole, CC. I'm sure you believe in the tooth fairy and Santa Claus. Keep those thoughts.

Anonymous said...

There are a lot of anonymous commenters who seem to think that they're in the know.

If you have any evidence to contradict the Seals poll I'd love to see it.

Also Anon @ 4:43, you're seriously telling me that Dold isn't doing any polling? That's quite possibly the dumbest statement I've ever heard on this blog. Every real candidate Republican or Democrat polls. This is especially true of top tier candidates such as Dold.

I challenge anyone to show me a nonpartisan poll from a well known and well respected pollster, which contradicts these numbers.

Hell, give me a Republican internal, which contradicts these numbers.

Anon @ 4:50 the reason the Democrats are more popular in this poll is because its a poll of the 10th district, which tends differ significantly from the swing districts and nationwide polling that you're used to seeing. In fact this is the 1st poll, to the best of my knowledge, which has publicly revealed the favorability of parties in congress for the 10th district.

Also, a 13 point lead isn't the sort of thing you release when you need national help. If a candidate needs national help the polls will show them close, but just needing that extra infusion of cash to push them over the top. For the record you release polls showing you way ahead when you want to change the storyline from toss-up to lean/likely Dem.

Anon @ 6:31, you need to learn the difference between message testing and push polling. Totally legitimate polls can test negative messages so that campaigns know what the most potent attacks are. A push poll isn't designed to test the reaction as much as it is to spread rumors as widely as possible, this means that much of the time push polling will omit significant portions of the normal interview process to cut straight to the smears.

Also, luckily Dan Seals isn't running nationally, where as you point out, my "party is sinking," he's running the in the 10th District. Let me know when you get some actual numbers from the actual district.

10th District Values Voter

Anonymous said...

10VV -

Try this one on:

Completely independant group running this poll. Shows a horse-race if you ask me.

Also, look to Charlie Cook - he is showing this a toss-up, but his numbers are trending towards Dold.

I do know the Dold team is not running any polls of their own. Huge waste of money for this race when Dold isn't going to change who he is, or his message, because of some numbers. As I said before, Dold is talking about jobs and Seals is talking about Dold. The dollars are more needed elsewhere - like ads.

And actually, a 13 point lead, right now, is exactly what you show, because then they'll run another that shows a tightening race, closer numbers. That's when they'll want the Nat'l money.

However, you are correct in saying that the 10th is different. Not too sure that anywhere else, you'd see Obama get 60% of the vote and we'd still elect a Republican to the House.

That being said, there is a huge amount of dissatisfaction in the district with the way the country is being managed.

My guess, you'll see a wholesale turnover in the House(40+ seats, with both incumbent R's and D's losing) and close to even in the Senate. And Dold will take it here with a 2 point spread.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be risking any money on the automated polling done by We Ask America, bucko. Even they say in their own literature that it shouldn't be used alone if one is looking for an accurate picture of the electorate. And I wouldn't exactly call them "completely independent." While they aren't an arm of the NRCC, they are well known to have a political (conservative) bent.

Seals by 5.