Thursday, June 10, 2010

Rasmussen: Kirk Still Leads Over Giannoulias, 42% to 39%

Despite the media pounce on Mark Kirk's mistakes over the stating of his military record (and subsequent apology for same), it seems that it has given rival Alexi Giannoulias little new traction as of yet. The latest poll from Rasmussen shows Kirk down a few points from their last poll (at 46%) in April, but Alexi is essentially unchanged (from 38% last time).

Based on the polling history, one could argue that the numbers seem to swing little whether we're talking about Kirk's problems or Alexi's. Does that mean that it's just too early for voters to be paying much attention (at least to this race), especially as the Blago trial is sucking most of the political wind out of everything, and many folks care 1000x's more about the Blackhawks and summer vacation than the back-and-forth by the candidates? You decide.

TA admits that he's not looking forward to this fall. Both senate candidates will spend millions on ads, and whether the candidates themselves or their surrogates (i.e., DSCC, NRSC) do it, the airwaves will be carpetbombed by negative campaign ads. Sigh.

Meanwhile, it also looks like Alexi's already sparse resume just got even shorter, as his campaign had to retract and correct a claim that he served on the Board of Directors of the Community Bankers Association of Illinois, when he only served on its committee on Legislation and Regulation.

According to Bob Wingert, president of the association, even his service on the committee during the 2005-2006 fiscal year was not too impressive.

“Alexi was not that intimately involved to be candid,” Wingert said.

Do tell.


Anonymous said...

Didn't we learn from the 08 campaigns that Rasmussen is not a good indicator...Clinton habitually lead Obama, Romney over McCain and McCain over Obama.
Now it looks like DOD is getting involved.

Anonymous said...

Rasmussen really has been proven to be a partisan hack firm when it comes to polling. Notice that they didn't poll any of the recent primaries? Rasmussen is interested in polling elections far in the future so it can set a narrative, but once the election gets closer (and Rasmussen's flawed polling methodology would be proven wrong), they stop polling that race.

That being said, as a Democrat, I'm not happy with Giannoulias. I voted for Hoffman. I'm not thrilled about Kirk either--kind of like the governor's race--two pretty unappealing choices. I have yet to make up my mind in either race.

But I am enthuiastically voting for Claypool for Cook County Assessor.

-10th Dist. Next Door Neighbor

Anonymous said...

Not sure how Rasmussen's methodology is flawed considering they have been the most accurate pollster over the last three elections. They were dead on with McCain/Obama, dead-on with Dem takeover in 2006 and dead-on with Bush/Kerry in 2004. Check your facts 10th District Next Door Neighbor.

Blue Wind said...

With all due respect, the poll of Rasmussen showed that Kirk's lead dropped by 5 points. From 8 points before to 3 points now. However, Rasmussen was the ONLY poll that was showing such a wide lead for Kirk. Other polls were showing Kirk ahead only by 3 points prior to the scandals. So, lets wait to see what the Real Clear Politics average will be. Interestingly, RCP has moved the race from "leaning republican" to a "toss-up".

In the mean time, it seems that Kirk has some new, much more serious problems than the series of lies that came out the last 2 weeks. Again, I would not be surprised at all if Kirk drops out of the race before November and is replaced by another candidate by the republican party. Would you?

Team America said...

Blue, if you think Kirk is going to drop out, you are dreaming. Kirk was fully prepared for a knife fight with the Obama administration (you notice I don't say the Alexi campaign).

Admittedly, they might have been expecting the fight to be more in September than June, but so be it. Mark is ready for this, and he is in for the long haul. The real test will be Q2 results. We'll see how things stand then.

Blue Wind said...

You may be right. Kirk may stay in the race no matter what, as there is no other serious republican candidate that could replace him at this point. However, he can not win. In fact, I think his presence in the GOP ticket will hurt republicans in other races where they may have a chance (i.e. the governor's race).

Anonymous said...

Bottom line if Kirk wants to win:

His team needs to realize they are running against the Whitehouse (not Lexi). The confidential material about Mark's military record will continue to be leaked by the Whitehouse and the Whitehouse will continue to blame it on "inside the Kirk campaign". It's a brilliant move - make the Kirk staff paranoid (which many already are) and fight against each other - instead of the Whitehouse.

This is not rocket science. Mark should leave Lexi alone - let the state party (is there one?) do research on the bank robber (family pulling millions upon millions of dollars out of the bank before the bank was federally seized). Lexi is just a pawn on a massive chess board owned by the Whitehouse.

In any event, the focus needs to be a campaign against the Whitehouse - against an unwilling administration failing to hear the voices of the people time and time again. Obama failed the American people with healthcare, Obama failed the American people with a "jobs plan" that expands jobs in the government only - an unsustainable burden on taxpayers. Obama failed in addressing the unsustainable burden of caring for illegal aliens.
Obama failed to provide solutions to keep homeowners struggling with foreclosures within their homes. And all the while Mr. Kirk, you have worn the uniform to protect this Country from enemies abroad - when in fact, the worst may be here at home. Remember that.

If you want to brag, brag about your accomplishments in the 10th - the list is extremely impressive. Now build on those accomplishments with a blueprint for this Nation in your bid for US Senate. The contrast is not between you and Lexi - it's you and the Whitehouse.

Let Obama continue to fight the will of the working men and women in this country - the entrepreneurs - the risk takers. And Mark - it's your job to engage the disenfranchised.

And when more "confidential" information gets leaked, stand up and fight back. There is no crying in politics. It's the art of war....with an intelligence background, Kirk should win.

Joe said...

I love delusional Republicans. You guys crack me up. Thanks for the laughs!

Anonymous said...

Joe, your best laughs are over. It ain't 2008 anymore.

Anonymous said...

"with an intelligence background, Kirk should win"

Wow, what a ridiculous comment. Kirk lies about his military record, gets exposed, and his supporters pick up the baton.

Jettison your James Bond image of Kirk. His job is to analyze reports of information acquired by other people who actually take risks and expose themselves to danger. He pushes paper. He does not gather intelligence.

The skills he uses during his part time military job are not relevant to campaigning. He is a restricted line officer. Not a pilot. Not a spy. Not anything like the hero he wants you to imagine.

Anonymous said...

No doubt spoken like a draft dodging liberal.....only appreciative of military service when it serves you.

Your version of a hero is...Captain Emmauel, Lt. Axelrod, Commander Obama?

Get a life...

JOe said...

Well, OK, anonymous, since you went there...

* GW Bush - decided that a six-year Nat'l Guard commitment really means four years. Still says that he's "been to war." Huh?

* VP Cheney - several deferments, the last by marriage (in his own words, "had other priorities than military service")

* Former Att'y Gen. John Ashcroft - did not serve; received seven deferment to teach business ed at SW Missouri State

* Jeb Bush, Florida Governor - did not serve.

* Karl Rove - avoided the draft, did not serve, too busy being a Republican.

* Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - avoided the draft, did not serve

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY - did not serve

* Senate Republican Conference Chairman Jon Kyl, R-AZ - did not serve.

* Senate Republican Conference Vice Chair John Cornyn, R-TX - did not serve.

*National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair John Ensign, R-NV - did not serve.

* House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-OH - did not serve.

* House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, R-MO - did not serve.

* Rep. Mark Kirk, R-IL -- his website claimed he served in Operation Iraqi Freedom; in reality, he had to correct the record.

Carl Nyberg said...

Rep. Mark Kirk Should Bow Out of Illinois U.S. Senate Race by Daniel T. Zanoza


Anonymous said...

Carl: nobody with half a brain gives two hoots in hell about that 'story' or that idea. Please go back over to your Queen of Hate, Ellen Beth, and talk among yourselves which you seem to do quite well. It's fun watching just the two of you twits talking to each other. Do you get the fact that nobody cares about your crap but the two of you?

Carl Nyberg said...

How about that new PPP polling?

BTW, Illinois Review wrote about Kirk. Comment?

Anonymous said...

*crickets* on the IR article and comments, I guess, huh?

Not even a nibble from shore?

No one screaming "Kirk Haters!!!! about that one"?

How things seem to have changed around here.

Anonymous said...

More lies from Kirk

Carl Nyberg said...

Hey, TA, you gonna do an updated Kirk thread?

Got any comments on Commander Yellow Stain running away from the media?