Friday, August 20, 2010

New Poll Shows Kirk Over Giannoulias 39-32; Dold in Striking Distance of Seals; Kinzinger Crushing Halvorson

A new survey released by We Ask America shows Congressman Mark Kirk with an almost 7 point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 39% to 32%. Kirk is also taking Independents, 37% to 22% for Alexi, which voting group will be critical in this race. WAA warns that this one will be tight, though. No kidding.

Also of note are the results for the Dold vs. Seals race in IL-10 to replace outgoing Congressman Kirk, with Seals edging out Dold 43% to 40%. However, the fact that Dold is well within striking distance a number of months out from the general election should be quite heartening for Dold, whose main hurdle to overcome is the greater name recognition enjoyed by Seals, given that this is his third run for this spot. If Seals' name recognition is only worth 3 points at the end of August, Dold ought to be able to make up that ground if he works hard and stays on message, as he seems to be doing thus far.

In the 11th District, Adam Kinzinger is crushing incumbent Democrat Debbie Halvorson by 20 points, 51% to 31%. Yikes.


Anonymous said...

This is an interesting poll, it actually shows Seals increasing his lead (by half about half of a point) from the poll they did in March. They are also getting widely different numbers than the other polls of the Senate race:

This is odd to me, as they are using registered voters instead of likely voters in this poll, so something seems off. I would love to see the cross tabs of this poll because it just seems a bit off, but who knows.

Anonymous said...

you have to consider the source on this stuff.

the kirk race is probably closer the dold race about the same. the kirk race will turn gop advantage when the national democrat party quits on alexi, the dold race will stay close as long as the national democrat party doesn't play big. If they do, it's over. If not, he could pull the upset.

gash was up a few points in 2000 at this point. the lead is because of name id.

Blue Wind said...

LOL. That's funny TA. Is that the internal "poll" of Kirk's campaign? It is certainly not a serious poll and not listed in the RCP site, where the poll average (including Rasmussen), show Giannoulias ahead by a small margin, but consistently so.

Is Kirk's campaign that desperate? Will they next poll people who work in Kirk's offices and then present it as a "new poll". LOL. Get used to the idea of senator Alexi. He will win easily. As for the Seals-Dold race, it will be a landslide for Seals. The voters in IL-10 are educated and intelligent and they dont like tea-party Sarah Palin-like candidates.

Blue Wind said...

Here are the serious polls:

Anonymous said...

=...when the national democrat party quits on alexi,...=


And why do you believe that will happen?


Anonymous said...

One good day at the State Fair without crap hitting the fan, and you seem to believe it's November? Not having to send an advance team out to sticker people to identify friend or foe, and you believe you've won?

We underestimated them once before in 2004, and look at where it got us. But that doesn't matter, does it, because it's about "inner circle" and the privileges associated with them no matter how close you may be to the fringe; it's about a job, a pension, the parties....

It stopped being about Country and service long ago, didn't it? Somehow we lost our way.

Even worse, we're not only much weaker this time, but we are INTENTIONALLY displaying our weaknesses to them this time around in a variety of ways--hoping that they'll identify with us or feel sorry enough for us to vote for us.

Rather than behaving as Republicans do.

Reminds me of all the photos of Obama bowing to leaders of other Countries.

Brady will win because Quinn doesn't want this. Giannoulias will win because he wants it, and because he often behaves more like a Republican than the Republican does.

You're underestimating them. And too blind and full of yourselves to admit it.

Complacency is a very dangerous thing.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, that should have read:

"...because it's about "inner circle" and the privileges associated with SA,E no matter how close you may be to the fringe; it's about a job, a pension, the parties....

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

You're so *infiltrated* at this point--and have been for so long--that you can't even tell the difference anymore, can you?