Thursday, August 26, 2010

Latest Rasmussen Poll: "Leaners" Show a Tight Race in Kirk-Giannoulias Matchup; It's Senate Debate Time; PLUS, IL-10 Candidate Income Statements

The latest Rasmussen poll shows State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias with a 2 point lead over 5-Term Congressman Mark Kirk (42 to 40), although the race tightens to 45-45 when "leaners" (those who are initially undecided, but indicate they are leaning towards one of the candidates in response to a later follow-up question. After Labor Day, Rasmussen will include "leaners" in the primary stats.

So, what does this mean? Probably a few things; first, despite the hype on this particular race, large numbers of voters still don't pay attention until after Labor Day (if then). So, we will expect the numbers of undecideds to go down steadily as November 2 approaches. Which way that will break for Kirk or Giannoulias depends on which messages are resonating with voters. So far, although Kirk has done a nice job hanging the appellation "mob banker" around Alexi's neck, it hasn't enabled Kirk to break away, probably due in large part to his own negatives concerning his military record claims.

However, it has just been announced that Alexi has finally agreed to meet Kirk in a few debates (one on NBC's "Meet the Press"), although for Kirk, it's not yet enough.

In a statement, Kirk said:

“We urge Mr. Giannoulias to fulfill his campaign promise to accept our invitation for several more debates and forums starting next week in Springfield,” Kirk campaign spokesperson Kirsten Kukowski said. “With unemployment over 10 percent, spending out of control and U.S. forces engaged overseas, voters deserve a thoughtful series of debates and forums to discuss the complex economic and foreign policy challenges before us. Voters should hear from the candidates well before early voting begins in October.”

I would expect that Kirk will wipe the floor with Alexi once he gets him in the debate ring, so I am hopeful that we will see some real swings in the numbers once large numbers of voters get a chance to see the two candidates head-to-head.

MEANWHILE, IN IL-10: The Chicago Tribune looks at the income statements of 10th District Candidates Bob Dold and Dan Seals. We'll have some follow-up on this soon, but for now, it's sufficient to note that, as we have said in the past, it appears that Dan Seals' claim to be an independent business consultant has been code for 'unemployed,' or at best, he's not a very successful consultant. The notion that Seals is just too busy continuously campaigning to make any money doesn't cut it for me; there have been many months of downtime between losing to Mark Kirk last November and taking the plunge a third time.

In the article, Seals points to his employment with "" as one of his consulting gigs that was a success. Well, we were the ones who first happened upon that gig last cycle, and as far as we could see, it couldn't have been that big a success, as that job appears to have lasted only a matter of months. Draw your own conclusions, folks.


10th voter said...

How surprising that you leave out the facts on Dold. Not only does he live in a house owned by his parents, which we knew, but they actually bought it for him and he pays $10K/year in rent. The guy is 41 with a family of 5 and he's paying $10K/year to live in Kenilworth.

Now that's independence. Sounds like a typical "born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple" entitled Republican to me.

Anonymous said...

Bob Dold WORKS in the business that has been in his family for over 100 years. He WORKS. He is not entitled to anything, pays the taxes on that home that has been in the family for many years. He also finds time to volunteer for many civic activities. And HE WORKS. In spite of your nasty dig at Bob Dold, he's a man who WORKS, pays taxes, pays attention to the needs of other. Seals does nothing but campaign over and over and over.

Anonymous said...

dan had 2 rationales for running for this seat over the last 6 years.

1)his pelosi team would bring positive change to washington. (it hasn't).

2)his business background enabled him to bring good economic policy (his venture we now know failed).

He's got no basis for winning the seat.

I dont have the energy to deal with dold but he's made it sound like he was the guy running this company and he hasn't been. Dick Green's business background was much more impressive.


Anonymous said...

anon, the problem is he makes it sound like he runs it and he clearly does not.


Anonymous said...

The guy who came out and sprayed my house last month absolutely raved about Robert Dold and his management style.

Dold's employees speak highly of him.

What do Seals' employees say about Seals? :-)

Louis G. Atsaves

Anonymous said...

Hey Foklaeps, Bob Dold most definitely works in that business every single day. Why are you making such false statements when it can easily be proved by his employees. In the American tradition, a business that has been in the family is passed from one generation to another. Nothing wrong with that, is there. Give it a rest, Foklaeps, and get on board the Dold campaign, the winning one in the 10th.

Anonymous said...

When I read the Tribune report, I realized neither Seals nor Dold had ever been complete financially responsible adults by supporting their life style. In my book, neither one is fit to represent us in Washington. Where are Julie Hamos and Beth Coulson when we need them? Sometimes voters get what they deserve.

Two years from now, we need real candidates like we had when Mark Kirk ran against Lauren Beth Gash. Then, two years from now, our district could be divided between Jan Schakowsky and Melissa Bean

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:39 & LGA,

Let me get this straight...unemployed people are not qualified to run for public office? Yet, our candidate is targeting the unemployed to vote for him "Let's Get to Work!". I have many qualified white collar friends who are "business consultants", b/c the economy is tough and they can't find commensurate work.

You can't have it both ways...everyone from Bob DolE, Nathan Deal, Sarah Palin...the list goes on and on...resigned their current occupations to focus on higher public endeavors.

Make no mistake about it...I said it in the primary and I'll say it here...Bob DolD will win because he simply out works his opponent. He is meeting new voters each and every day. He is positive, engaging, and unrelenting in his daily drive.

Let's focus on the policies...Bob wins. Let's focus on who we want to represent us in Congress, Bob. A freshman member of the lower chamber isn't going to save the planet or change national policy. Let's understand that and move on. To bash Dan on the fact that he made peanuts last year will backfire (see 9.5%) and bite us in the a*s.

Go Bob, go...

Anonymous said...

The unemployed are qualified to run. And not everyone "resigns" from their current job to run for public office. Obama did not. Giannoulias did not (State Treasurer). The list is endless.

But Seals does not admit to being unemployed. Big difference.

Be straight up with the voter and you will earn his/her respect.

Dold's employees who I have run across love him to death and talk about what a great boss he is. What better endorsements than those?

Louis G. Atsaves