The GOP race to succeed outgoing Congressman Mark Kirk (who is running for the U.S. Senate) in Illinois' 10th Congressional District has been quite a roller-coaster ride, with candidates jockeying for position, money and support.
Some, like Bill Cadigan and Patricia Bird, have dropped out altogether, and some, like Dr. Arie Friedman, have come on surprisingly strong from seemingly out of nowhere.
Businessman Dick Green, who basically announced for the race even before Congressman Kirk decided to run for the U.S. Senate instead of a sixth term in Congress, seems to have been somewhat invisible on the campaign trail, but is now papering households with direct mail (TA got THREE on Saturday alone, although I think that was a timing error and Team Green meant for them to arrive over a period of days). "This race is far from over," Green told Team America the other evening in a chat on Facebook.
But, frankly, the race seems to have been boiling down for some time now between two front-running candidates, State Representative Beth Coulson, and businessman Bob Dold. Coulson recently got a strong endorsement from the Daily Herald, and also from the Pioneer Press, but today the tables were turned a bit, as Bob Dold got the upper hand with the Chicago Tribune endorsement, likely the most important of the three newspapers mentioned.
Coulson got an honorable mention:
We greatly admire state Rep. Beth Coulson, the Glenview Republican who has the endorsements of Porter and former Gov. Jim Edgar. We give her credit for her solid work in Springfield on health care.
But Dold came away with the top prize:
We think, though, that Republicans have an even better candidate: Kenilworth businessman Robert Dold, who is making his first run for office.
Dold served as an investigative counsel for the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee, has an MBA from Northwestern and runs a small business. Congress needs more people who genuinely understand what it takes to put people to work — and how government puts up roadblocks to employment. Dold makes a convincing argument that he does.
He's not a political neophyte: He has been active in local and national Republican politics for years. But he is making his first run for office and he would bring a fresh, common-sense perspective to government. Dold is endorsed.
If anyone cares, the Tribune picked State Rep. Julie Hamos over two-time loser Dan Seals. But, at least we can take comfort that the Tribune has paid attention to one drum we have been beating, that Dan Seals seems to care little about his community, except perhaps when he's running for office:
Wilmette business consultant Dan Seals is making his third run for the seat. We endorsed Seals in his two previous primary campaigns (but supported Kirk in the general elections). We like Seals, but we also hear 10th District residents asking why he hasn't been more involved in community efforts in the district. His primary focus seems to have been on asking for their votes. Our endorsement goes to state Rep. Julie Hamos of Wilmette. She has a fine record on ethics reform, domestic violence laws and early childhood education. She patiently and quite skillfully engineered new law that shored up the finances and instituted critical pension reforms for Chicago-area mass transit.
As one commentor recently queried, we have not had anyone release any polling data for quite some time, nor has anyone released any Q4 fundraising results. So, it's not clear how this all is playing with the electorate.
Will newspaper endorsements (which are essentially split) make the case for either Dold or Coulson? Will Dick Green's carpetbombing direct mail strategy for the 10th District win the day or just annoy 10th District environmentalists with the waste of paper? Will Arie Friedman come in with enough votes to encourage him to remain involved in politics?
These questions and more will be answered in the weeks ahead, so stay tuned...
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49 comments:
Great job team Dold! This is a game changer.
Trib is sold on Dold, they tire of Springfield politicians too.
Too bad your point about seals is false. He has brought in experts and led forums on healthcare, education, transportation, energy, and the economy. He has organized environmental cleanup days, developed green jobs programs, and helped other local candidates. He has not been part of the Springfield budget fiasco, and he has run honest and constructive races. Clearly the Trib wants to set up the Republican by having him or her run against the most liberal Democrat in a moderate district.
I enjoy watching the same blogger saying Edgar, Porter, Pioneer Press, and Daily Herald mean nothing..."meh"...but, Quayle and the Trib "is a game changer". I still believe Dold will win because Coulson isn't fighting. She's hosting her next function in like 3 days? Dold does something daily. Where is her commercial with Edgar & Porter's picture displayed? Lackluster...
I don't know about this being a game changer, but I do find it fascinating that the Dold staffers on this blog who slammed the endorsements in the past now find them to be worth something when it swings their way.
Seems to me the Trib endorsement will be a good boost for the campaign for a day or two but then fall to the wayside like all the other endorsements have.
Dold is gold!
Nice to see all the Dold staffers now finding endorsements to be "gold."
TA is right, things are even. I won't cash in the endorsement as a win, though. Still two weeks left.
Dold is the right choice. He's super intelligent and wants to truly represent the 10th. The other candidates all carry someone elses baggage. There are too many Blago votes tied to Coulson. You can stick a fork in her. She's done.
Team Dold,
The Trib endorsement would have meant something a decade ago when it was a Republican newspaper - its not anymore. And as to the "Trib is sold on Dold, they tire of Springfield politicians too." Please explain the Hamos endorsement...
The good news about this endorsement - it'll look better than "Quayle endorsed" on the next mail piece.
So, you may not like Dold, and many of you do not, but this is a major blow to Coulson. She lobbied the Tribune heavily to win this endorsement. I do not think the calls from Edgar helped at all, in fact they may have hurt.
Coulson is boxed into a corner now. The national party is not excited by her campaign. Her record is simply too liberal to motivate the base. Her best endorsements are behind her, and she can't escape Dold's momentum.
Coulsen pulled out all the stops to get this one and her team did not deliver. Hope her ground game is good.
Amen brother. Well put.
Coulsen is in trouble. If she had a lead, we would be seeing polling data. The fact she is going hat in hand to get her ads put on air is trouble for her campaign.
This is the first real endorsement of the campaign.
The next two weeks should be fun!
Huge for Dold...
It was a protest vote against coulson. watch the tape, not exactly mark kirk on there.
the hit on pup is the finest piece of journalism i've seen the chicago tribune do ever. hopefully they will still exist in the fall so they can knock him again.
for the pup lover.
causing traffic jams is not leadership on transportation.
the north shore has the best public schools in the country. it doesn't need experts. in fact people are smart enough here to vote against your guy. if his kids went to one up here instead of the chicago public schools where they teach you how to do graffitti and pay homage to your local alderman, he would know.
also dont need help on health care, mark kirk seems to have that done cold.there's also something called team america's blog or even, get this, the internet-it's starting to catch on as if we don't know what our healthcare situation is like.
your guy with his overpriced top 60 us news and world report degree apparently thinks himself above some guy named obama- Columbia top 10 who toiled in springfield. perhaps why he didnt get the endorsement.
taxes are high on the north shore, this is to pay for others to do the enviornmental cleaning up. also thanks for killing small businesses that do that for a living.
he's an honest man if thats what you call lying about your resume, having no job for 6 years and attacking old jewish women.
you're right he's an economic leader. He gave patrick mogge a job for 6 years to run 3 of the worst campaigns this side of creigh deeds, and martha coakley.
FOKLAEAPS
Mr. Dold and Company,
Congratulations on the endorsement of the Chicago Tribune.
I am still voting for and supporting Beth Coulson because of her commitment to the district. Wishing you well.
Coulson Supporter
It seems fishy to me...the Trib video clearly shows Dold didn't know what he was talking about, even getting schooled about not knowing how to answer the abortion question. Then they endorse Dold for his business sense.
If I were to endorse a business guy, I would've gone with Green. He build two businesses from scratch with his own money. All Dold did was latch onto what his dad started and what his mother runs.
Sounds odd to me, really.
After trib went for McKenna nothing surprises me.
They have an agenda to put unelectable candidates on GOP ballot.
There McKenna arguments mirror dold. In both cases guys who run their daddy's companies and screaming for attention and validation.
There is something about Coulson that Irks me. I am not sure but she seems to come from the same school of Chicago style politics in which they promise me one thing and do what interest her $upporter$. I am going to do more research on all the candidates, but I highly respect and will take into consideration on the Trib's opinion on a fresh, common-sense perspective to represent the 10th.
"I highly respect and will take into consideration on the Trib's opinion on a fresh, common-sense perspective to represent the 10th."
If you hadn't of copied Dold's stump speech to put into your statement, I would've believed you. Now, since you have failed to show original thought, we can all rest assure that you are probably a staffer for his campaign. Thank you for making that obvious to us all.
Dold is fresh and new...Everyone else is yesterday's news.
"The North Shore has the best public schools in the country." Again, FOKLAES (I've given up tracking your ever-expanding acronym), you terribly misread this district. The North Shore is just the southeast corner of the district. I don't know anyone in the world who thinks Waukegan and North Chicago have "The best public high schools in the country."
Also, criticizing Seals for not being involved in the community, then criticizing his community betterment activities is epically glaring hypocrisy. Either he doesn't do environmental clean-up work in his community (which he does), or that work is bad for the community (which is insane). You can't criticize his involvement and lack of involvement at the same time.
As for his economic leadership, even the Daily Herald acknowledged what I've been shouting from the rooftops, that he served as an economic policy aide in two branches of government. The guy knows his economic policy, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars.
As for "the worst campaign," take a look at the Democratic challengers to Kirk before Dan. I'd say Dan took on one of the safest incumbents in the country and scared the living daylights out of him. Dan's been in the top 5 fundraisers among Democratic challengers in both of his races, while still maintaining a grassroots volunteer network. Pretty darn impressive for Don Rumsfeld's seat.
Hey Tikkun, please elaborate on any and all community clean up activities of your guy when he's NOT running for election. Nobody, not even you, can deliniate any consistent and ongoing projects and programs undertaken by Seals. He appears to gin up some of his volunteers ONLY during election time and then, very few, verifiable clean up drives. He's one of the most invisible men on the north shore. Then again, he's a daddy mom which is perfectly fine, but don't try to gild the lilly, Tiki, it's truth you should be stating. Oh yes, Joe Lieberman has NO idea who or what a Dan Seals is or was. He sure made some impact. As for the school issue on the north shore. Nobody in most of the cities and towns can boast of outstanding educational and recreational advantages for our kids and grandchildren to learn and to grow. North Chicago schools have benefitted from the Impact Aid that Mark Kirk fought so hard to obtain. Waukegan schools suffer from what most of the DC schools endure. Guess that's why our president had to enroll his kids in a prestigious private school. The president even went so far as to work feverishly to abolish the charter schools, the vouchers for DC's failing schools. What's with that, Tiki? Those schools have proven their worth in his old hometown, but how quickly he and others forget. All that aside, Waukegan needs the kind of leadership that it has lacked under the half-witted Democrats who have ruled with tight fists up there. Be careful of how you throw stones, Tiki, because you're just not up on everything. Then again, you're not old enough to really know the real truths.
Dan Seals is all about Dan Seals, period. People are tired of his broad smile and empty suit. But I'm glad you think he's still a great, productive, ACTIVE, candidate who wants to actually make this a better world. Odd, Tiki, perhaps YOU should have a serious chat with him about what it takes to repair the world.
Congrats to the Dold for Congress Campaign. Two weeks to go and this thing is far from over, according to Dick Green. Has anyone reviewed the Dick Green Plan, that is the plan the 10th district needs.
I would check Dold's FEC reports for a check to the Tribune.
Who saw this one coming? We live in a great country when a bug guy can get a major endorsement and when asked if he is pro life or pro choice, he responds YES!
Anon 8:54 & 8:57,
Are you sitting next to each other? At least learn how to spell your opponent's name. (Psst...don't let Quayle hear you say "This is the first real endorsement of the campaign.") Let me guess...should Coulson earn the Sun Times endorsement it won't matter because...
If I'm Bob Dold I'm not so sure I want the Libune endorsement. They haven't been a conservative newspaper in decades and the fact they endorsed Bob and McKenna, whose daddy is on their board, makes me ask how is Dold different than Coulson?
Both Pro Choice
Both Support the Bailouts
Both believe in 2nd Amendment Restrictions.
Bob or Beth - What's the difference?
Congrats to Bob, I guess. I agree with the Libune comment made earlier.
The harsh reality is that Bob may be a good guy, but he can't win in November. Republican voters need to wake up to this reality. Our candidate must be able to hang on to the Independents and Jewish Democrats Kirk had. The only one who can do that is Friedman.
For a guy whose been running for two months and has raised limited funds - he has caught on like wildfire and there is a reason for this.
Bob and Dick are good folks, but only Arie can win a general. A vote for anyone else is a vote for Seals/Hamos.
Mr. Green, you have run a lackluster campaign and there is not one demographic I can find who seems to be supporting you. I know you haven't considered the notion that traction isn't just around the corner, but that it the truth. In my humble opinion, you remain in the race for one reason right now---to help Beth Coulson.
Dold Supporter, who used to support Green
Until the Trib's endorsement of Dold yesterday, this race was over. Now, Dold is in play again. Dold is a very smart guy and energetic. I know. I went to law school with him. And while we disagreed vigorously on political issues--and had some great debates about them--he is certainly qualified and has the right temperament for the 10th District. Even though I'm a centrist Democrat, I'd consider voting for him if I didn't live three blocks away from the 10th District. Alas, I'm in Schakowski's district, so my vote is meaningless for the foreseeable future. Dold's only problem is that it's four men against one woman in his primary. There will be some who go into the voting booth knowing little about the race and will vote for the woman. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. But it's the truth. I've seen it in other races. I former co-worker who ran for judge in the same area was one of four men against one woman in the primary. The woman won.
In Palatine mayoral race last year, long-time incumbent Rita Mullins was the only woman in a race with two other men. She came in third. So the theory is not without merit, but it isn't a sure thing either.
Bob Dold has convinced the pro-lifers he is one of them and convinced the Tribune ed board he is a job creator and good government guy. Good political gymnastic skills that will probably mean victory on Feb 2nd.
I'm a Green supporter and will remain a Dick Green supporter despite the nasty rhetoric coming from the Dold camp.
The Trib endorsement is rather odd; if they are serious about business and job creation, the clear choice is Dick Green!
Daddy didn't create his businesses, Dick is
Mommy isn't running his businesses, Dick is
Dick owns his own home
Dick pays his own taxes
Dick isn't afraid to put his name on literature challenging Dold
Dick doesn't care who the Trib endorses, he wants the endorsement of the voters
Dick isn't into "whisper campaigns"
The reality is - it ain't over - enjoy today's Libune endorsement - we'll enjoy victory on the 2nd!
This is death to Coulson. Even if she wins, how would the Tribune later come back and endorse her over Hamos in the general.
I have to wonder sometimes if Republicans are paying attention. The problem for Coulson is that she's NOT independent. There's a negative to being tagged by Edgar.
Coulson was asked if she votes the way her district is leaning or if she follows her own path. She said she polls district comments in her office and follows where the office commentary is going. Oops - that means she can't express a vision of where she thinks we should land. By the way, this is what Dem's do - they make the out of work union cruds get on the phone or walk. They come in by the bus load. So do we lead toward being popularists or do we sell the better ideas?
Looks like the dying animal in the corner is getting feisty.
Anon 10:43 (both anti-Coulson):
Question: "How does the Tribune endorse in the fall?"
Answer: They nearly endorsed today - didn't you catch it - they practically said we want to endorse but someone won't let us.... to be determined later....
As to the allegation of not being independent because she received Edgar's endorsement? Then explain Quayle's endorsement? The voters of Illinois voted for Edgar in higher numbers and certainly more numbers than Dan Quayle.
Got more?
The problem for Coulson is that she doesn't have more, all she has are her endorsements. Look at her website, she touts no events, no campaign stops, nothing, her flier are inconsistent with her record. Her Youtube videos are comical with like 35 views. She even has her endorsers show up on her behalf for candidate forums (wood in Lake forest). The trib endorsement hurts her bad, although not critically, because her campaign thusfar relies almost entirely on securing endorsements.
January 19, 2010 10:34 AM said he is for Green. The problem in the Green campaign is that you worry about Dold instead of running a campaign. And it's a selfish campaign - you're not allowed to talk with other Republicans working for other candidates. It's old guard vs. new guard, and the Topinka Edgar Cross old guard days are numbered.
I got 4 Green pieces in Saturday's mail. Same message on all 4. The old guard endorsements just demonstrate Green's lack of independence. And guess what, that's Coulson's problem too. You guys are in 3rd place right now. You need to pass Coulson to have a shot. It might be time for the Green campaign to go nuclear.
Yes, I've got more. "Almost" endorsed doesn't look good on a piece of direct mail.
Coulson is going to lose this primary if she doesn't get up on TV with something big soon.
Green is in third place? Heck, I think he is running behind Hammon at this point.
I hope that Green is in third place, if Friedman is first and Dold is second.
Conservative Veteran
Friedman is in 4th Place. With no organization, and no money, he has no hope of winning. A vote for Friedman, is a vote for Coulson.
Same old refrain. Friedman has enough money to have radio spots on four different radio stations and on every conservative show for the last week (just heard another spot on Beck an hour ago). He has enough money that I just counted 12 signs on my way to and from my house in Lake Forest. He has enough of an organzation that his volunteers have made literature drops at my hose. And he has enough of an organization that I saw his volunteers two different train stations on my metra trip downtown. When I got off at Ogilvie, I saw several pieces of literature on seats and in people's hands. Lastly, my mother in Mt Prospect got a phone-bank call over the weekend.
I am not an active member of Dr. Arie's campaign, but I've already voted for him. I just couldn't let the above commenter's disinformation stand unchallenged.
Friedman has an organization big enough to run a state rep or senate race, which is what he should have run for--or he should have started earlier.
Another example of disinformation. Wishing his organization was small doesn't make it so. Coulson once made a claim that she has "hundreds" of volunteers. Dr. Arie actually does. Pretty sure the other candidates don't have the quality of his volunteers either - my Dad's cardiologist was going door-to-door for Arie over the weekend.
I've written this on this forum before but I'll write it again. I'll take Arie's qualifications for office over the others any day of the week. Just ask a random person who they would rather represent them in Washington and tell me with a straight face that they will scoff at Dr. Friedman's story and say he should have started with state rep.
Maybe if Coulson's democrat staff would get off TA and actually go campaign she might get some game.
"There are three other candidates."
-Chicago Tribune
To those who think that Dold has it easy taking over a family business... slow down!
My great-grandfather started our company in 1902, and my father will soon retire. It's not easy for me, just because it's a family business. We face unique challenges that you may not understand unless you're in a similiar situation.
In fact, it's probably a whole lot easier to start a new small business managing 5 employees than taking over a larger company with 100+ employees, multiple locations and vehicles.
Dold may have the gotten in the front door because of his parents - but the doors have stayed open because he's there.
Finally, Dold understands regulations and taxes that business are burdened with. Sorry, Green's and Friedman's businesses are very small and aren't subject to the same laws. Nor are their businesses as complex.
I'm sold on Dold!
Dold Rocks!
This isn't over yet - but I like the momentum.
the complexity of killing bugs and rodents easily trumps representing a state rep district, running a financial information company, or practicing medicine
Totally! The guy we want representing us in Congress is the guy who "runs" his daddy's bug squishing business because it is so "complex". Especially when we are dealing with easier issues like healthcare and a struggling economy.
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