The Daily Herald today issued a strong endorsement of State Rep. Beth Coulson in her quest to become the GOP nominee to succeed outgoing five-term Congressman Mark Kirk, who is running for U.S. Senate. The Herald said:
We are most impressed with Coulson, who has demonstrated her ability to tear down obstacles and build consensus in a nearly 13-year career in Springfield. Coulson, a certified physical therapist, claims some credit for achieving prescription drug coverage for senior citizens in Illinois before it came up in Congress and for developing a coalition of Republicans and downstate majority Democrats to persuade that party's leadership to adopt some medical malpractice reform.
She speaks with passion and detail about domestic challenges and is steeped in international affairs. Coulson also has been endorsed by former Gov. Jim Edgar and former 10th District Congressman John E. Porter. We add our strong support for Coulson to theirs.
The Herald seemed a lot less enthusiastic about the Dem candidates overall, and after a bit of hand-wringing, went with Dan Seals in a rather lukewarm endorsement:
[State Rep. Julie] Hamos led the recent effort to bail out mass transit, in part by securing a sales tax increase. Seals seems more worried about federal spending and spiraling debt. In a very close call, we give the edge to Seals for his concern for cutting spending and our belief that he may be more independent and, therefore, a better fit for the 10th District.
Hmm. Wonder if the Herald editors had kept in mind carpetbagger Seals' many gaffes like gasoline-gate, professor-gate, Rosty-gate, Rangel-gate, and the fact the man hasn't participated in his community or, as far as anyone can tell, actually held a job for years, poor Julie might have squeaked it out. But that's OK. Elephants never forget, and whomever the GOP nominee will be, she/he will have plenty of ammo to use against a perennial candidate like Seals, who's only qualification for Congress is that he seems to be persistent in running for Congress.
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39 comments:
Interesting that you continue to list false criticisms of Seals, as if you believe that repetition makes them true. I've seen people refute your claims many times, but you want to choose your "facts" and no one can stop you. Still, I'd think you would strongly prefer Seals to Hamos, given that Hamos is more liberal, has contributed to fiscally irresponsible voting in Springfield, and has demonstrated she is a rubber stamp for Obama. (And btw, Seals has worked hard in the community - and in his paid jobs - over the last several years, especially on environmental issues and cleanups as well as economic issues.)
A month and a half ago I talked about how the wanna-be's are huffing and puffing and the veterans are building an organzation. Here we are and Kirk is trouncing everyone and Coulson is quietly racking up the endorsements and building tremendous momentum. I am certain of Kirks outcome and now am feeling pretty good about Coulsons. Its all about a ground game these last few weeks and Couson has one of the best.
Congresswoman Beth Coulson. At least until re-districting.
When was the last time Seals had a real job? He's been "running" for Congress the last five years.
I was with Dold for a long time, but his campaign isn't doing anything. I read about Coulson almost weekly in the newspapers. We need to keep this seat and it is looking like Coulson is the only shot of doing that.
Arnie,
I'm leaving the Dold camp with you - he's a nice guy and I like him but his staff is just so into slamming the other candidates, especially Coulson. I'm tired of the negativity and I met Coulson at a Lake County funder last week. She's just more positive and has a good energy to her.
The first Anon post could surely have been written by Ellen Beth herself. Sounds just like her. I chucked when this poster says that Seals had "worked hard in the community and in his paid job". Are you kidding? He had a couple of clean up stunts with volunteers and that's his HARD WORK? As for his paid job, now that's almost comical. He was untruthful about what he was doing at Northwestern yet this poster claims that TA lists false criticisms of Seals. Any proof of that? He is a total and complete loser, just like his hero in the White House.
Anon 9:06 - I think it it's YOU who is simply repeating claims without backup. Cites, please. Tell us who and how refuted our claims regarding Seals.
Oh, you can't? No shock, pal. Seals was called on his false claim of being an NU professor by the Daily Herald and he admitted he improperly claimed the title and dropped it from his literature. Now he's only a "lecturer" and a VERY former lecturer at that. As far as I know, after he taught his one night school course, he was never invited back.
Gasoline-gate was a PR disaster as proven by the fact that he lost. He admitted he improperly took money from convicted felon Rosty in front of his class and ended up giving it back.
So tell us again where and how any of this was refuted.
Oh, and Seals never did any community work when he wasn't running for office. Loser.
a moron could have told dolt that veteran legislators come in to endorsement sessions with a lead because they can point to things they've done. He had to tell them that her experience wasnt good experience because springfield is awfufl.
he is for sure dave mcsweeney.
i shall very much miss the pup bashing if he is harpooned. hamos has 1.1 million to spend over the next 2 weeks.
FOKLAEAPS
Someone wrote above that Coulson has "energy"? Up is down and black is white, then.
My overall response to the Herald endorsement is "meh."
Coulson's "ground game" has yet to be tested. We will see if she can translate her fairly anemic campaigns of the past in her state re district into something new and effective.
Still have yet to meet anyone (except in the comments section of this blog) who has any real enthusiasm for her. Not saying it isn't out there, just haven't seen it yet.
Anon 1:03, Beth has won in each cycle when she had some pretty tough competition. She has gained the support and respect of the majority of her district, and that's obvious. No, she's not a bombastic, smiley, phoney hand shaker who doesn't keep her promises. Her office is known for outstanding constituent service. People remember that. They also know that her word is her bond. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the voters in the 10th District feel on February 2. A match between Beth and Julie Hamos would be more than interesting.
If you like watching train wrecks...
That endorsement may make me vote for Hamos instead of Seals. I am for increase in spending altogether. I can not stand the people who advocate "fiscal responsibility"
Did the Herald endorsement story mention the fact that Coulson may switch parties if she wins?
Anon 3:01, that's such a pathetic attempt to spread a rumor that has no basis in fact. Don't you think that if Coulson was of that nature she would have switched a decade ago instead of having to duke it out with Michael Madgian, who NEVER gave Coulson a pass in all the years she's been a state rep.
Some way to reward loyalty to the GOP.
That's pathetic and if I find out who's campaign you're working for, you're toast.
Love, TA
I have seen little worthwhile political discussion come out of this forum. Let's focus on meaningful differences between the candidates rather than erroneous slanderous claims.
TA,
I couldn't have said it better - I can tell you the negatives "whisper campaign" I've seen have come from the Dold camp. And it's too bad - he seemed promising - but resorting to those tactics is childish at best.
At least Green's bashing has his name on it.
I love how some anonymous poster starts a whisper campaign that the Dold campaign is engaging in whisper campaigns. I mean c'mon....
The dolt campaign should be a lesson like the mcsweeney failure to all other campaigns. It's very nice to have wanted to be congressman since you were 6 years old. However, running the campaign that was relevant when you were 6 years old is not the best idea. As well a congressional campaign is not a winnetka lacrosse match. You have to hit people, you have to have a story and you have to have ideas that are based in reality.
Dolt has done none of that. On the plus side he has white teeth, perfectly combed hair and the bush-quayle talking points from 1988 down cold.
FOKLAEAPS
TA (or anyone else),
Just from curiosity, does anyone know who is leading in the polls in the republican primary? Of course, I will vote in the democratic primary for Seals (unless I change the last moment and vote for Hamos), but I am curious to see who is leading in the republican polls. I can not find anything on the web. Coulson sounds like the most moderate/reasonable for IL10, Kirk-like republican. Are all the rest to the far right? How are the polls so far?
Blue, as far as I know, it's been so long since any of the candidates released a poll, I really don't know where things stand. Maybe someone else knows of current info?
Mark Kirk has held this seat by 1) being hawkish on foreign affairs/defense and getting some conservatives to support him for that; and 2) being more pro-Israel thah his opponents; and 3)being at least at liberal as his Dem oppponents on social issues.
Coulson can't replicate that against Hamos or Seals and will lose in a general election.
There was an RNC poll in October, which showed Coulson way ahead (By way ahead I mean 20% to 1% based on name ID alone). Given that no one has released any numbers I'd extrapolate that Coulson is around 30%, Dold at 20%, Undecided at around 40%, with the rest splitting the remainder.
On the Dem side Seals' lit has mentioned that he's leading 2-1 in the polls, and Hamos hasn't released any polling over the past 5 months, so imagine that the number is more or less accurate.
Political Pro
Anon 1:03:
What are you smoking? The rest of us would like some. You say Coulson’s ground game has never been tested. You clearly have no clue. She is an Independent Republican legislator in a democrat district.
In the words of TA, sheesh!
My two favorite quote of the many posted here by Coulson Staffers:
1) "I'd extrapolate that Coulson is around 30%, Dold at 20%, Undecided at around 40%, with the rest splitting the remainder."
Really? why not 100% for Beth (?), don't sell her short with your "extrapolation." I extrapolate for the democratic race:
Hamos 33%, Seals 33%, Coulson 33%
My favorite quote of the many posted here by Coulson Staffers:
1) "I'd extrapolate that Coulson is around 30%, Dold at 20%, Undecided at around 40%, with the rest splitting the remainder."
Really? why not 100% for Beth (?), don't sell her short with your "extrapolation." I extrapolate for the democratic race:
Hamos 33%, Seals 33%, Coulson 33%
Anon 5:42,
Why do you dislike Coulson so much? As a card carrying democrat and ACLU member, let me assure you that she is not a democrat in any way. She is a republican. But the way you are attacking her you are going to make me to like her. It means she is rational enough and not to the far right.
I don't get how posting what I did makes me a Coulson staffer. The reason no one has released any polling is because no one has any good news to release. The scenario I outlined has no good news for anyone: Beth Coulson can't send out triumphant press releases talking about how she's running away with this thing when she's got about 30% of the vote, and Bob Dold can't exactly talk about having momentum while trailing by 10 points while having only 20% support.
I don't think Friedman will be much of a factor, because he got in late, and my sources tell me he's raised very little money for the quarter.
The race is going to hinge on turn out, if tea party types turn out the race is Dold's, if its the normal electorate, Coulson will win based on having superior name ID.
Political Pro
And Coulson needs to work that much harder for a GOP primary vote than any of the other candidates because she does not have any issue or angle to sell to a GOP voter, even in the Tenth District. Thats what happens when you spend 10 years trying to convince voters you are a Democrat. I believe the phrase is "hoisted on your own petard"
ALCU-Democrat, the reason you like Coulson is because she votes like a Democrat and does fliers with Obama and your buy Blago. In the end, you might as well vote for Hamos over Coulson because Hamos would vote for Pelosi while Coulson would probably vote for some right winger for Speaker of the House. Right?
We need a candidate who is loyal to the Party but isn't too far to the right to put him or her outside the mainstream of the 10th. That person is Dold or Friedman.
pro is right. they are all polling. at this point if you are not in the lead, then you are not showing your stuff. coulson and pup would not show their polls even if they were in the lead unless they are showing them blowing out their opponents because they don't want to show their opponents gaining momentum or closing the gap. I think it's pups and blago coulsons to lose right now, and dolt and hamos have tough decisions to make on whether or not to drive up their opponents negatives or get their name id up.
pup is going to go right after coulson on her ties to blago and its going to be hard for the state gop to stomach. Her anemic fundraising also won't help her case in the general as there is not much of a market for a socially liberal union loving woman in gop fundraising circles at the moment.
Dolt needed to starting last summer, use free media to hit coulson repeatedly on springfield to take her down. He didn't because he was brushing his teeth. The great unknown is his familys bank account and whether they decide to unload that. He needs that to win at this point although, I am curious as to how much ad space he can buy it with.
FOKLAEAPS
Am I the only one who's noticed what a cheapo primary this has been? Not exactly seeing Donnelly/Hochberg sort of money are we? When are the big, game-changing media buys I have heard so much about going to happen?
When is the big news conference at which Blago endorses Coulson while wearing his Elvis getup?
Coulson will likely win but won't be able to consolidate conservative GOP voters behind her. Her base is other office holders and people who wish the GOP was more like the Democrats.
FOKLAEPS,
Seals is broadcasting his large lead:
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=229191294708
I don't think Coulson has such a huge lead though, and I think Dold is still in the hunt. This is a very low turnout primary, over the past 10 years numbers have swung between 35k and 45k, except in 2000 when it was a contested primary on the Republican side and it was close to 60k. This year I expect turnout to be between 50k and 55k. To give everyone a sense of perspective if a campaign manages to turn out an extra 5000 people that represents a swing of between 8% and 9%.
Essentially if Dold's ground game manages to outhustle Coulson's he could still very easily win even if he is down by 10 points.
I do however agree with FOKLAEPS assessment of the general election if Coulson is nominated. Seals has a 70% favorability rating and 83% name ID. Essentially, everyone knows who he is, and almost everyone likes him. This is despite Kirk's best efforts to negatively define him. Factor in Coulson's relatively weak fundraising so far, and you have the recipe for a blowout.
Political Pro
if pup has 70 percent favorability ratings then todd stroger is a harvard phd. he doesn't which is why it took julie no time to raise 1.1 million against him and why the establishment is trying to harpoon the pup. 3 time loser candidates almost never win. newt gingrich and mark souder are the rare exceptions.
On the question of why we are not seeing as much money.
1. Porter was in power 20 years, that's a lot of time for people to wait.
2. The economy hadn't stunk for awhile and the 90's were good to people like john cox. There are a lot of people who are worried-even rich people about their bank accounts or have suffered losses.
3. the gop has shrunk up here and our brand is up the ellen. Andy Hochbergs are today moderate democrats.
With regards to pro.
All seals has to do is go through her voting record, pick out great hits like increased her pay while she raised taxes, or worked with blago to increase spending or whatever else and he will cut off her moderate support. if conservatives had problems with mark, they are going to hate her.
after blago goes off in september, all hell will break lose and the democrats will be in free fall, she can hit seals on spending, d.c., israel, all sorts of things team america has spotlighted, afghanistan-dan is pro-taliban, and moderate women republicans have been tough to beat. She'll also have mark's coattails and he will clean up here like a fat kid in a bakery.
I am also skeptical that people that worked their hearts out for pup twice, then quit on him, then got pissed at obama and blago for how bad things are going to be, will come back to seals. he broke their hearts twice, and I don't see alexi or pat quinn getting any great enthusiasm up here either.
FOKLAEAPS
I live in Winnetka and see Dold signs in many yards. Great for him right? Wrong.
He has signs where he grew up...big whoop. I mean the guy is running a pretty big ground game but the fact of the matter is it only goes so far and reaches so many voters.
It take months and months (maybe even years) to build a Kirk-type ground game.
Kudos to Bob but...
Coulson came out with one of the most popular governors to date (edgar), then came out with one of the most effective and popular congressman in the 10th among seniors who vote EVERY Primary (porter), just received the Pioneer Press endorsement last week (services many municipalities in the 10th), and today she received the Daily Herald endorsement (largest suburban newspaper).
This thing is over and Coulson should start focusing on the General.
B!R!
I'll echo the last post.
I live in the Dold quadrant and agree with the past post (as well as the comments about running a 80s like contest). Quayle-lite.
I think Bob's a decent fella, although I question whether he thought through his candidacy (and could have used (or listened to?) more learned, advice. I have a street sign and will dutifully put it out- as seems obligatory if asked by friends.
On her merits, Coulson is the tested candidate for November. I'm NOT a raving fan, shes's not the next Everett Dirksen. But....
A prior post wondered where the monied and well versed candidates were hiding out. My instint is that we HAVE the talent pool & bucks, they are just keeping their powder dry.
Mr. 10.
Dan Seals has been unemployed for six years and many of his closest former supporters now are with Kirk or Hamos.
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