We have been saying this all along, but Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post matter-of-factly predicts that Congressman Mark Kirk will win the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate race:
On the GOP side, Rep. Mark Kirk will win. Patrick Hughes, a conservative businessman, could have made the race interesting if he had been able to raise money but he, um, wasn't.
Yep, I guess that about sums it up.
FYI, Cillizza also thinks Alexi Giannoulias will wrap it up pretty easily for the Dems:
Sexy Lexi Giannoulias is very likely to be the D nominee as neither Cheryle Jackson or David Hoffman seem to be putting together any sort of momentum.
"Sexy Lexi"? Uck.
By the way, no word yet from the Hughes campaign how their Q4 fundraising went (remember that for Q3 they were supposed to have raised $400,000 but fell far short; for Q4, they said more than a million; we're still waiting...) but the word on the street is that most of Pat's money is going to pay pricey consultants and staff, rather than put it into advertising that actually reaches voters. So far I count one direct mail flyer, one pitifully small cable TV ad buy, and one direct mail solicitation for funds that was so negative, I couldn't even stand to read the whole thing. Interestingly, many candidates face a strategical dilemma as to if and when to go negative (see Dold, Robert), but Pat never had that issue -- he's been negative from day one, since being the anti-Kirk is the only thing he's campaigning on.
So, mark Team America and Cillizza down for calling a Kirk victory. Let's see how quickly the other pundits line up.
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16 comments:
With self funders if its a long shot at the end, they pull off because why waste your own money. Mark shut this down early.
As I have said for roughly 8 months. the senate foreign relations committee room dirksen 419 awaits him. Considering that most of the other gop members are folks with other interests-murkowski, isackson, I think its his chairmanship to lose if and when lugar steps down.
FOKLAEAPS
I also agree. Kirk will win easily the republican primary. Mark me down also for that prediction.
In addition, mark me down for this one: Kirk will be defeated easily by Gianoulias. The next senator from IL will be Alexi Gianoulias :-)
Blue
You have to understand that the worst possible profile for a candidate to have in this state next year will to be a slick,ethnic, fast talking, intellectually and morally bankrupt, fully coiffed panting dog democrat. Why? Because the 2002 version, blago will be in on trial going down and taking everyone with him like a fat kid on tug of war. Ask Chris Dodd how easy a senate campaign is when you fit the profile for everything that is wrong in America.
The blago bomb exploding in chicago this fall will be the most costly since big baby underneath the u of c field. This is why I believe Hamilton Chang is a shoein and why we could win lots of other seats like thunder dan segrue.
Obama is already laying the groundwork to write alexi off, the administration has already said throughout the year that the big fat greek disaster was a 4th tier candidate. They say that to condition the media to believe that its no big deal they got embarassed. We do it too. If there is a chance they lose this seat they will let alexi die because they know that any story that they lost a senate seat to a republican on their turf 2 years after their election, will look HORRIBLE.
Only questions left are if Biden's swearing ins are as long winded as his hearing questions and lucky for him there's no risk of plagiarism and who will be forced to buy the donuts for the thursday morning durbin and kirk breakfeasts in d.c.
FOKLAEAPS
FOKLAEAPS:
One of the better thought out narratives I have heard regarding the impending Democrat killing fields next Fall. The only thing I disagree with is that it will Be Hebda in the 59th not "Thunder Dan"
Wow...so according to you being "ethnic" is one of the worst possible profiles. Wow! It is a shocking comment. I assume that the votes of Italian Americans, Greek Americans, Jewish Americans, and other ethnic groups dont matter to you? I hope you and similar tea-party thinking people will keep up this mentality. It will assure the total defeat of the far right (that you apparently represent with this sort of thinking) for decades to come.
Clarification: My previous comment was in response to the (unbelievable) comment of FOKLAEAPS.
I don't drink stimulants, tea, coffee, soda or otherwise.
Before a democrat goes on here and hits me for race politics you might get a load of the negro comment your soon to be ex senate leader reid made about your president. 4-3-2-1, sounds like leader schumer.
the tribune has a lovely piece up about mark. Team America must be on their payroll. They will be mark's best friend over the next 9 months.
the point about alexi is that if you look at his profile, there aren't a lot of differences between him and blago except for the fact that alexi is loaded and blago makes his wife eat bugs to survive. Not everyone knows their candidates 4th grade spelling contest results the way we know our adversaries and a casual voter next october is going to watch the news about blago, then look at their 401k then see an ad about alexi's scandal and confuse the 2 and say enough.
Not everyone has a super awesome law degree from loyola and is smart enough to nightly write 3,000 words of high school level hate drivel complaining about their local congressman and the bowel movements of their feline.
FOKLAEAPS
TA is on nobody's payroll.
This is all for 'duty and humanity.'
N'yuk, N'yuk, N'yuk.
team
I am aware but I like when they write stories better than you and I could.
the reid negro comment is precious. So much for the gop as the party of hate.
FOKLAEAPS
Giannoulias is a mob banker - very much more to come
I would say that Foklaeaps is generalizing quite a bit. (At least he didn't have a choice term for someone he disagrees with; this time.)
If Foklaeps is correct, why is Jim RYAN running for office when the last few GOP RYANS were either convicted of crimes of a previous office (i.e. not the office he most recently held) or was involved in a 'messy' divorce based in part of charges of Mr. RYAN not necessarily living a life demonstrative of 'family values?'
(Sometimes, it is better to not rush to comment, label, or act as if one knows it all, especially when it is such labeling, legislative inaction, and insensitive comments that possibly brought about a situation where only 22% of people identified themselves as Republican in an ANONYMOUS poll).
Of course, the comment does provide insight as to why the GOP may not have too many candidates with unique-sounding names.
One of those candidates put her foot in her mouth recently, implying that her gender is the main reason she should be the Party's candidate for Congressional office (is that the best she's got?).
That said, if one were to suggest that the GOP is too monolithic, this would be cited as simplistic or as a person's failure to understand the workings of the GOP.
Of course, generalizing about what 'everyone' thinks, or how best to run a campaign, or how best to run the country is not something the GOP shys away from.
It is coming up with tangible, realistic, and non-dogmatic (i.e. not exclusively dependent upon theories like the 'free-market,'
a hands-off approach to governance, and the Sanford school of 'personal responsibility') solutions to the problems faced by those who don't have any capital gains to be taxed, by those that didn't benefit from the Bush tax cuts ($pending?), and by those that can't wait around until the GOP thinks it'd be good to address our nation's productivity, competitiveness, and ability to prosper, which are in dire need of improvement.
Finally, I'm surprised the GOP doesn't call Kirk an outsider, now that they've tried it for Fred Thompson and McKenna and now that it is as clear as ever that Kirk is not now nor never was a 'thoughtful independent.'
Crazy4glf:
Man, what are you smoking? The Sanford school of personal responsibility? Do you prefer the Clinton School of personal responsibility or how about the Barney Frank or Eliott Spitzer or John Edwards or Jim McGreevey schools just to name a few.
Or are you suggesting Democrats do not believe in personal responsibility and therefore should not be called out for it?
And, Mark Kirk not independent? Compared to who? Dick Durbin and Roland Burris are merely rubber stamps for this administration.
But then again, are you suggesting Democrats do not believe in independent thought and therefore should not be called out for it?
just asking....
the daily herald endorsement was pretty glowing and it rebuts hughe for mark. I thought the trib would have the best piece for him but if blago was running KFC he'd say the editorial was f---- gold.
I'm guessing he'll sweep the state and if memory serves he's won all but one editorial board in his history the only one being the glencoe news in 2000 primary when they went with cox or some clown.
FOKLAEAPS
The Daily Herald's endorsement of Rep. Kirk was excellent and clearly articulated the reasons that no other candidate has gained traction against him in the primary. My prediction is that Rep. Kirk will easily win the GOP primary for U.S. Senate. I'll go one step further and predict that he will be able to best any of the Democratic challengers in the fall as well.
Anon -
I am referring to Kirk's record compared to who he purports to be in his comments and campaign literature.
Despite his claims to be Pro environment, pro equality (Ledbetter), an intelligence expert (Iraq war and subsequent supplemental spending requests -i.e. Bush's unique budgeting prowess), his recent stances call this into question.
Also, some media outlets are finally catching on to this.
Also, given Kirk's primary challengers, who else would be deemed the superior candidate? Is this news?
Kirk can, of course, do what he wants, though is it too much to ask that what one says and what they claim to be is not a world apart from what they do and who's support they seek (i.e. Daley sees himself as the city's benevolent savior, his actions and things he fails to act on say something different.)
Again, Dem's have never said we are perfect. However, we have also not tried to base any and all legislation on what a small minority of our party wants, on a specific faith's religious teachings or how they are interpreted, and we do not generally give all Dem's a free pass on acting in a manner contrary to the underlying values of the party.
If the GOP is the family values party, why did Rep. Hyde serve unabated? Why is Dan Burton still there? Why is Sanford -who had a local speaking engagement not so long ago as a darling of the GOP - still in office? Why are Newt and Rudy (nice choice for police commissioner, Rudy) still talking heads for the GOP?
You are either of superior values (possibly a human impossibility) or you are a mere mortal who should not stand in judgement 24/7/365 - wasn't that part of a religious teaching ? Judge not...).
Finally, while there is room for respectful debate, uninformed protestors, delaying nominations so soon after demanding up or down votes on mediocre appointments, and lending credence to the idea that nothing gets done in legislative venues is not the path of the highest return or value to we the people.
I got the barf-bag out when I saw crazy4himself was posting again! You 'guys' can compare infidelity from political party 'kings' till the cows come home! gag
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