The Dan Seals camp is trying to make hay out of a recent poll paid for by the ultra-liberal (and some say anti-Semitic) website DailyKos. McLaughlin & Associates, Kirk's pollster, whose own results differ greatly from the numbers quoted from Kos, had this to say:
The ultra left-wing Web site DailyKos commissioned a poll by Research 2000, which was conducted in Illinois' 10th Congressional District from 9/30-10/1. The survey was flawed on three levels. First, the survey over-sampled voters age 18-29 while under-sampling voters 60+. Second, the survey over-sampled Democrats and Independents while under-sampling Republicans. Third, the survey was intentionally conducted on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah that would exclude observant Jewish Democratic voters who lean more toward Kirk than average Democrats.
Skewed Age Sample: According to the database of actual registered voters, only 16 percent of voters are aged 18-29, while 30 percent are over age 60. The Research 2000 poll filled sample quotas differently, showing 19 percent of those surveyed between the ages of 18-29 and only 18 percent of voters over age 60. Mark Kirk has always done better among older voters. Skewing the poll by age skews it toward Seals.
Faulty Party Sample: Over more than two years of polling, our surveys found on average that the 10th District breaks down as follows: 34% Republican, 34% Democrat and 32% Independent. The Research 2000 poll filled sample quotas differently, showing 35% Democrats, 36% Independent and only 29% Republicans. Surveying more Democrats and less Republicans will obviously create an artificially closer race. In the 8 years that we have polled for Mark Kirk, we have never had Republicans among likely voters to be less than 33%.
Excluding Kirk-Leaning Jewish Voters: It is no surprise that DailyKos, which has come under attack by Democrats like Harold Ford Jr. and Lanny Davis for anti-Israel and anti-Semitic content, chose to conduct its poll on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah. The 10th District is almost 20 percent Jewish -- one of the larger Jewish districts in the nation. In addition to being disrespectful, the poll excluded observant Jewish voters who tend to vote for Mark Kirk more than average Democrats. In our last survey, Kirk did 25 percent better among Jewish voters than a typical Republican. By having fewer older voters, fewer Republicans and fewer ticket-splitting Jewish voters, DailyKos made sure the Democratic quota broke more for Dan Seals to give him an extra boost. And even with their biases, Mark Kirk still is leading.
So much for a lift from this poll, Danno. But while we're at it, even if you are within six points, if you haven't been able to close the gap any closer since last November (especially in a Kerry district with Obama's phantom pervading the very air we breathe), how ya gonna do it in 30 days?