Monday, October 6, 2008

Daily Kos Poll for Dan Seals Seems Flawed, But Even So, Why is He Still Behind in Obama's Backyard?

The Dan Seals camp is trying to make hay out of a recent poll paid for by the ultra-liberal (and some say anti-Semitic) website DailyKos. McLaughlin & Associates, Kirk's pollster, whose own results differ greatly from the numbers quoted from Kos, had this to say:


The ultra left-wing Web site DailyKos commissioned a poll by Research 2000, which was conducted in Illinois' 10th Congressional District from 9/30-10/1. The survey was flawed on three levels. First, the survey over-sampled voters age 18-29 while under-sampling voters 60+. Second, the survey over-sampled Democrats and Independents while under-sampling Republicans. Third, the survey was intentionally conducted on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah that would exclude observant Jewish Democratic voters who lean more toward Kirk than average Democrats.

Skewed Age Sample: According to the database of actual registered voters, only 16 percent of voters are aged 18-29, while 30 percent are over age 60. The Research 2000 poll filled sample quotas differently, showing 19 percent of those surveyed between the ages of 18-29 and only 18 percent of voters over age 60. Mark Kirk has always done better among older voters. Skewing the poll by age skews it toward Seals.

Faulty Party Sample: Over more than two years of polling, our surveys found on average that the 10th District breaks down as follows: 34% Republican, 34% Democrat and 32% Independent. The Research 2000 poll filled sample quotas differently, showing 35% Democrats, 36% Independent and only 29% Republicans. Surveying more Democrats and less Republicans will obviously create an artificially closer race. In the 8 years that we have polled for Mark Kirk, we have never had Republicans among likely voters to be less than 33%.

Excluding Kirk-Leaning Jewish Voters: It is no surprise that DailyKos, which has come under attack by Democrats like Harold Ford Jr. and Lanny Davis for anti-Israel and anti-Semitic content, chose to conduct its poll on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah. The 10th District is almost 20 percent Jewish -- one of the larger Jewish districts in the nation. In addition to being disrespectful, the poll excluded observant Jewish voters who tend to vote for Mark Kirk more than average Democrats. In our last survey, Kirk did 25 percent better among Jewish voters than a typical Republican. By having fewer older voters, fewer Republicans and fewer ticket-splitting Jewish voters, DailyKos made sure the Democratic quota broke more for Dan Seals to give him an extra boost. And even with their biases, Mark Kirk still is leading.



So much for a lift from this poll, Danno. But while we're at it, even if you are within six points, if you haven't been able to close the gap any closer since last November (especially in a Kerry district with Obama's phantom pervading the very air we breathe), how ya gonna do it in 30 days?

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

TA,

I think they missed another major point in their memo. DailyKos polled the day after Congress rejected the bailout and the market tanked. The media, the pundits, everyone was blaming Congress for the stock plunges. It didn't come out until later in the week that Kirk voted yes while Seals would have noted no.

Clearly, the poll came at the worst possible time for an incumbent -- and he still was winning!

Anonymous said...

Something doesn't smell right here.

Seals puts out a DCCC poll taken in August that shows the race at 46-39. A month goes by with DCCC pouring in mail and cable TV. Seals goes up with hard hitting network TV ads. The economy plummits. And it's Rosh HaShana.

And somehow, after all of this, Seals dropped one point? Hmmm. Either Dan has run the worst campaign in history or this poll is bunk.

Anonymous said...

TA:

You've broken through in the Jewish community. The Jewish Forward is reporting it now!!!

http://www.forward.com/blogs/campaign-confidential/#story-1

Anonymous said...

I see Rich Miller over at Capitol Fax Blog took down this analysis from Kirk's pollster. Is he in the tank for Seals?

Anonymous said...

So Seals releases a third poll showing he is still losing to Kirk by 7 - the same margin Kirk beat him by in 2006.

Jeez Dan, you have been at this for THREE years and no improvement.

WilmetteLife said...

The DailyKos is run by vicious anti-semites who back Dan Seals for Congress.

Anonymous said...

Dan is the most anti-Israel candidate to come out of the North Shore in a long time. These politics come from his 9th district base which was ground zero for the activists who tied the iraq war and cause of the palestinians together.

If Mark is within 5-7 points on election day it will be over because the nutroots are going to come out and do it for obama and people are not going to go republican.

His margin is twice that right now which means, Dan is up a creek.

Anonymous said...

Read the follow-up post on DailyKos. If this poll is such an outlier, why did Kirk's campaign go nuclear over it? I also find it interesting that this blog is fuming over it. If Kirk is up six points and this poll is obviously flawed, why worry? Laugh all you want, but it seems as though Kirk must be feeling the heat.

Second, as DailyKos points out, Jewish voters typically lean Democratic. So the fact that the poll was done over Rosh Hashanah probably boosts Kirk more than Seals. Just something to consider.

Third, somehow you see a six point trail and only a month to break it unattainable. Should McCain, who is also about six points behind nationally and watching swing states slowly turn bluer, throw in the towel?

Anonymous said...

Nobody is freaking out over the Daily Kos, it's posters or those who frequent that vicious site. I think we all know who they are, what they stand for, and how they operate. The poll was taken on Rosh Hashonah, it was taken on a day filled with mayhem over the financial condition in our country, it was not a true random sample of the district. I think it's fair to point out those obvious flaws. Those who post on Daily Kos have shown some pretty strange language toward Israel and Jews in this country. We have 28 days to go in this cycle. I have never seen anything quite as disgraceful and disgusting as the mail pieces coming out by SEIU and AFSCME on behalf of Seals. The last piece was so blatantly over the top and egregeious that it actually is causing some who never get involved in politics to call in anger that Seals would approve this kind of crap. Like those who perpetrate this kind of filth in our district, Seals is culpable by his silence. The 08 cycle will go down as one of the nastiest, most expensive battles ever. What a waste of money.

Anonymous said...

Campaign is about one thing right now: If Mark's ad dollars can shield him from the kirk is bush attack that is coming. If they can, Dan might finally have to get a job, and good luck in this market. If not, if he and dan are both polling in the 40's in 3 weeks, he's toast.