Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Dan Seals Grasps For Lifeline From Polls, Even If They're Wrong (UPDATED)

When you're behind in every poll that's been taken in a race, you pray for that one poll that shows something different, even if it's wrong. Well, Dan Seals' prayer was answered in the form of a Roll Call robopoll over the weekend that showed Seals ahead of Mark Kirk, 52% to 44% (Roll Call also surveyed a bunch of other congressional districts). As noted by the Daily Herald blog, though, that doesn't match up with any other poll, including the one just done by the DailyKos, which Seals also thought was really good news for him.

Since lots of people seem to think it's important to analyze these polls to explain them away one way or another, here's my shot:

First, the Roll Call robo call surveys were done Saturday and Sunday, and these had greatly different results in the seven districts where surveys were conducted than what either Democratic or Republican campaigns in each district had been reporting. You tend to get skewed results when conducting survey on weekends, especially without live interviews.

Second, even the Democrat-favored survey DailyKos just did showed Kirk winning. The DailyKos poll, and every other poll done in the Tenth this year has shown Seals at no higher than 39% and Kirk always in the lead. In fact, the best numbers for Seals up until now were from Seals' own poll on Feb 7th and 8th (two days after primary), which showed him at 39%. Even Kos showed Kirk winning and Seals only at 38% -- a point below his own best on Feb 7-8.

So, the obvious conclusion here is that the Roll Call poll is a fluke or outlier. But, that certainly won't stop Seals from desperately grasping this poll as a lifeline to show DCCC and his supporters that he's not on the ropes. We'll see if they swallow it.

UPDATED 10:30 a.m. THE WORLD IS HANGING ON DAN SEALS' NEXT MOVE: My word, Seals is even more out there and egotistical than I thought. I just got an e-mail from his campaign stating:

"The latest poll conducted in this race has declared to the world what we have known all along: the 10th District wants a representative who will bring the change we need to Washington!!"

Holy moley. And I thought Barack Obama was trying to play to the world stage. At least he gave a speech in Germany. Seals has trouble getting an audience at local high schools unless they're bussed in by the unions from Chicago.


Anonymous said...

Yep the chicago style scum politics are off and running. No doubt they are dumpster diving behind kirk hq, planning to intimidate voters and registering their dead animals to vote.

No doubt democat with more brains than her owner is being asked to vote early and often.

Anonymous said...

jump over to capitol fax blog. rich miller is talking all kinds of doom and gloom for the kirk campaign. i set him straight with the news that this so-called poll was a robo-call poll done on a weekend. you can't get god results with a "poll" like that. how do they know who was answering the questions...maybe the 5 year old that picked up the phone when it rang on sat morning as he was watching cartoons...

Anonymous said...

Hey TA, find out about the last 17 years of similar polls by ROLL CALL. I think you're going to find that ALL OF THEM were wrong. If Dan, Ellen and that motley crew over there are hanging their political future on the ROLL CALL flawed poll, so be it. But do your readers a favor and check on how many times they've been spot on. We still can take nothing for granted. This is tough, this is down and dirty going towards the finish line. We all need to get out the vote, get over to KFC and offer your time to the campaign. We don't have goons to bus in from the city, we don't have lackeys coming here courtesy of the DCCC. What we DO have are dedicated constituents who value what Mark Kirk means to our district, our State, country and the world. Get off the computers, the phones, the couch and let's get the job done. Today is great day to start.

Anonymous said...

Anon welcome to the party, some of us go back to the mikva mafia, the gash goons and rumsfeld raiders so please , I'll out gotv you any fall weekend.

While you are over at HQ, how about getting andy mckenna out of the boardroom to get us a state party so that we don't have to deal with dans.

If Mark loses, McKenna goes to the guillotine first, then Hastert.

Any word on how David From is hanging up with oberweis?

Anonymous said...

2006 Survey USA -- called 17 races.

Wrong 17 out of 17 - no wonder the Washington Post refuses to publish them

Anonymous said...

I was volunteering late at the Kirk office last night. When I was walking to my car, I saw someone parked with their headlights on.

The driver pulled away when he saw me.

It was a man in a Chevy compact car with Obama and Seals bumper stickers.